{"id":29756,"date":"2026-03-06T11:57:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T11:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/danske-arastirmacilari-subat-ayi-istihdam-artisinin-yavaslamasini-issizligin-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor-tahvil-getirileri-ve-isgucu-maliyetleri-izlenecek\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T11:57:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T11:57:23","slug":"danske-arastirmacilari-subat-ayi-istihdam-artisinin-yavaslamasini-issizligin-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor-tahvil-getirileri-ve-isgucu-maliyetleri-izlenecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/danske-arastirmacilari-subat-ayi-istihdam-artisinin-yavaslamasini-issizligin-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor-tahvil-getirileri-ve-isgucu-maliyetleri-izlenecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Danske ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131, \u015eubat ay\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; tahvil getirileri ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri izlenecek"},"content":{"rendered":"Danske Bank, dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019deki en kritik verinin \u015eubat ay\u0131 istihdam raporu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka, Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni istihdam say\u0131s\u0131) Ocak\u2019taki 130 binden 70 bine yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fmemesini bekledi.\n\nBanka, \u015eubat ay\u0131na girerken daha s\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klanan (y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131) g\u00f6stergelerin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti\u011fini aktard\u0131. Buna i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsiz kalanlar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvurular), ADP\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam tahmini (maa\u015f bordrosu verilerinden \u00fcretilen istihdam g\u00f6stergesi) ve Indeed Hiring Lab\u2019in g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015f ilanlar\u0131 verisi dahil. 28 \u015eubat ile biten haftada haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 213 bin oldu.\n\n<h3>High Frequency Labor Signals<\/h3>\nDevam eden i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 almaya devam edenlerin say\u0131s\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. \u015eubat ay\u0131 Challenger raporuna g\u00f6re, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma duyurular\u0131 (\u015firketlerin ilan etti\u011fi planl\u0131 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar) mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (takvim ve d\u00f6nemsel etkiler temizlenmi\u015f) olarak Ocak\u2019taki 108 binden 48,3 bine geriledi; i\u015fe al\u0131m duyurular\u0131 ise zay\u0131f kald\u0131.\n\n\u00d6nc\u00fc (flash: ilk\/erken) 4. \u00e7eyrek verisine g\u00f6re verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem de\u011fi\u015fimin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) \u00e7eyreklik bazda (q\/q: bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re) %2,8\u2019e indi; 3. \u00e7eyrekte %5,2 idi. Bu, daha zay\u0131f gelen GSYH (GDP: Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la) verisiyle birlikte izlendi. Birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti (unit labour cost: \u00fcretilen her birim \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyeti) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f q\/q bazda 3. \u00e7eyrekteki %-1,8\u2019den %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.\n\nBanka, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam raporunun ABD tahvil getirileri (bond yields: tahvillerin faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren getiri) ve swap faizleri (swap rates: faiz takas\u0131 i\u015flemlerinde kullan\u0131lan oranlar) \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca VIX endeksi (hisse piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi), MOVE endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) ve kredi spreadleri (credit spreads: bor\u00e7lanma risk primini g\u00f6steren faiz fark\u0131) \u2014 ITRAX gibi \u2014 taraf\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flara dikkat \u00e7ekerken, Schatz ASW-spread\u2019de (Almanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvili ile swap faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark; tahvil-swap fark\u0131) hareketin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.\n\n2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, piyasa beklentisi ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yava\u015flama y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi ve \u015eubat istihdam raporu tahminleri 70 bin civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ancak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelerek tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinde y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, mevcut piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendirirken \u00f6nemli bir arka plan sunuyor.\n\n<h3>Derivative Positioning For Volatility<\/h3>\n2026 \u015eubat istihdam raporu man\u015fette 275 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi, ancak i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fe al\u0131m ile artan i\u015fsizli\u011fin bir arada g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Federal Reserve\/Fed) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem gibi) i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, bu veri \u00e7eli\u015fkisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yaratabilece\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.\n\n2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri sonras\u0131 getirilerin \u201cdo\u011frudan\u201d y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir tablo yerine daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir durum var. Tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en MOVE endeksi 105\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fcksek seviyelerde. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, iki y\u00f6nden birinde b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete ihtiya\u00e7 duyan stratejiler (\u00f6r. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle almak: ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanma) etkili olabilir.\n\nHisse piyasalar\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde temkin g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. VIX endeksi 14 civar\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve rahat bir seviyede. Bu da S&#038;P 500 gibi endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi kullan\u0131lan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli korumay\u0131 almak daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir ad\u0131m olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u015eubat ABD istihdam\u0131nda: Danske NFP\u2019nin 70 bine yava\u015flay\u0131p i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz dolar\/tahvil getirilerini oynatabilir; MOVE y\u00fcksek, VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, opsiyonla korunma ucuz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29756\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}