{"id":29754,"date":"2026-03-06T10:58:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/avrupa-seansinda-eur-usd-yaklasan-abd-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-nfp-verisi-oncesinde-11600-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T10:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:58","slug":"avrupa-seansinda-eur-usd-yaklasan-abd-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-nfp-verisi-oncesinde-11600-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/avrupa-seansinda-eur-usd-yaklasan-abd-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-nfp-verisi-oncesinde-11600-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa seans\u0131nda EUR\/USD, yakla\u015fan ABD \u015eubat ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde 1,1600 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,1600 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta kald\u0131. Piyasalar, 13:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u015eubat ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisini bekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 99,68 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.\n\nPiyasa beklentisi, ABD\u2019de 59 bin yeni istihdam yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi; ocakta 130 bin olmu\u015ftu. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (i\u015f arayanlar i\u00e7indeki i\u015fsizlerin pay\u0131) %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u2019\u0131n (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile de\u011fi\u015fmemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Faiz Beklentilerinde De\u011fi\u015fim<\/h3>\nADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi raporu (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en veri) \u015fubatta i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterince faiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlamas\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) Fed\u2019in temmuzda faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir hafta \u00f6nceki %33,4\u2019ten %47,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f s\u00fcrerken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, politikan\u0131n \u201c\u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f bir patikada\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bankan\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n etkilerini izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nNFP, tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 ABD\u2019de ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er. Bu veri, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131, dolar\u0131n seyrini, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve istihdam raporunun di\u011fer kalemlerine dair piyasa beklentilerini etkileyebilir.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon ve Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nBug\u00fcne, 6 Mart 2026\u2019ya gelindi\u011finde tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti ve parite 1,0750\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2025 boyunca kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, hem Fed\u2019in hem de ECB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n ilk bekledi\u011fi kadar gev\u015fetmesini engelledi. K\u00fcresel ekonomide fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 ana g\u00fcndem olmaya devam ediyor.\n\nSon veriler bu ihtiyatl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. ABD\u2019de Ocak 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3 artt\u0131 ve tahminlerin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Eurostat\u2019\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini (h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk enflasyon tahmini) enflasyonun %2,8\u2019de yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ECB i\u00e7in zorlu\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kat\u0131l\u0131k, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesine neden oluyor.\n\nBu nedenle faiz beklentilerinde sert bir yeniden fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. CME FedWatch, Fed\u2019in may\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %25\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda fiyatlanan yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesinden belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapanlar) bu nedenle faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi senaryosunu dikkate alabilir.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda odak yeniden \u015fubat ay\u0131 istihdam raporunda olacak; ekonomistler bordrolu istihdam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 bin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; 1,0700 alt\u0131na olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) korunma arac\u0131 (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) olarak kullan\u0131labilir. Beklentiden \u00e7ok zay\u0131f bir rapor ise Fed\u2019in daha erken politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair fiyatlamay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131 destekleyebilir.\n\nBelirsizlik nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor; bu da piyasada belirgin bir fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun straddle gibi stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareketten yararlanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kritik NFP \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,16\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, DXY 99\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. ADP faiz beklentilerini yukar\u0131 itti. 2026\u2019da parite 1,0750\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131rken inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon indirim umutlar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29754\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}