{"id":29753,"date":"2026-03-06T10:58:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobankin-raboresearch-birimi-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-daha-pahali-petrol-ve-avrupada-dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-artisin-euro-bolgesi-enflasyonu-ile-buyume-gorunumunu-nasil\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T10:58:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:58:09","slug":"rabobankin-raboresearch-birimi-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-daha-pahali-petrol-ve-avrupada-dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-artisin-euro-bolgesi-enflasyonu-ile-buyume-gorunumunu-nasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobankin-raboresearch-birimi-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-daha-pahali-petrol-ve-avrupada-dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-artisin-euro-bolgesi-enflasyonu-ile-buyume-gorunumunu-nasil\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019\u0131n RaboResearch birimi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler, daha pahal\u0131 petrol ve Avrupa\u2019da do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini inceliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019un RaboResearch birimi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ile petrol ve Avrupa do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisini nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini inceliyor. G\u00fcncellenen temel senaryoya g\u00f6re enflasyon 2026\u2019da, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi tahminlere k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 puan daha y\u00fcksek; b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise 0,1 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya uygun enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonu 2026\u2019da ortalama %2,4 olacak, 2027\u2019de %1,9\u2019a gerileyecek. Raporda, her t\u0131rmanma senaryosunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ayr\u0131ca 0,1 puan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Enerji \u015eoku Ve Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nEn sars\u0131c\u0131 senaryoda, kritik enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (petrol\/do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimi, boru hatlar\u0131, terminaller gibi temel sistemler) uzun s\u00fcre devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131 halinde enflasyon %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda %6\u2019y\u0131 da a\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nKritik enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tahrip edilmesi olarak tan\u0131mlanan yaln\u0131zca Senaryo 3\u2019te ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 0,7 puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. En b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt \u00fcye \u00fclkede, tahminler Almanya ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Fransa ve \u0130spanya\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha fazla etkilendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nYaz\u0131da, metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi notu yer al\u0131yor.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fcncelliyoruz; Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 s\u00fcren enerji \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f) ekonomik tabloyu yeniden \u015fekillendiriyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 95 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi ve TTF do\u011falgaz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte teslim edilecek gaz i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 45 \u20ac\/MWh \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, modellerimiz 2026 i\u00e7in ortalama enflasyonu %2,4\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin i\u00e7 fiyatlara ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fcme Riskleri Ve Piyasa Etkileri<\/h3>\nEurostat\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc (h\u0131zl\u0131) tahminine g\u00f6re \u015fubat ay\u0131nda HICP enflasyonunun %2,7 olmas\u0131, bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi do\u011fruluyor ve ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2 hedefinden daha da uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz piyasalar\u0131, bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi beklentilerini h\u0131zla fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 zor politika tercihlerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\n\nAyn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik faaliyet zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme temel senaryomuz 0,1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Bunu, Almanya Ifo \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nin (\u015firketlerin beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en hafta beklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de destekliyor; bu, imalat taraf\u0131nda alg\u0131n\u0131n daralmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde zorlu bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nKritik enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131nda hasar i\u00e7eren daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir senaryonun \u201ckuyruk riski\u201d (olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck risk) art\u0131k g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek d\u00fczeyde. B\u00f6yle bir durumda enflasyon %5\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; b\u00fcy\u00fcme de 0,7 puana kadar d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla resesyonu (ekonomide belirgin daralma d\u00f6nemi) tetikler. Bu t\u00fcr a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ihtimali, sert piyasa hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha cazip hale getiriyor.\n\nD\u00f6rt b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi i\u00e7inde, enerji \u015fokunun y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Fransa ve \u0130spanya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha fazla ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enerji ithalat\u0131na (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan enerji al\u0131m\u0131) daha fazla dayanan sanayi yap\u0131lar\u0131 onlar\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc 2022\u2019de ba\u015flayan enerji krizinde de g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemlerinde (benzer varl\u0131klar\u0131 birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131p satarak farktan getiri arama) f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Alman varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Frans\u0131z varl\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f kalaca\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak gibi.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni sars\u0131yor: Rabobank, enerji fiyat \u015fokuyla 2026 enflasyonunu %2,4\u2019e (0,5 puan yukar\u0131), b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 0,1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; a\u011f\u0131r senaryoda enflasyon %6\u2019y\u0131 a\u015fabilir, b\u00fcy\u00fcme 0,7 d\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29753\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}