{"id":29746,"date":"2026-03-06T09:57:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:57:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-07810-civarinda-dalgalaniyor-abd-dolarinin-son-donemdeki-gucunu-korumasiyla-onceki-yukselislerin-ardindan-geri-cekiliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T09:57:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:57:52","slug":"usd-chf-07810-civarinda-dalgalaniyor-abd-dolarinin-son-donemdeki-gucunu-korumasiyla-onceki-yukselislerin-ardindan-geri-cekiliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-07810-civarinda-dalgalaniyor-abd-dolarinin-son-donemdeki-gucunu-korumasiyla-onceki-yukselislerin-ardindan-geri-cekiliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF 0,7810 civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor; ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131yla \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekiliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF, \u00f6nceki seansta %0,25 y\u00fckseldikten sonra geriledi ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,7810 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in destek buldu. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken, yetkililer enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (faiz y\u00fckseltme) h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada tutuyor.\n\n\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc K\u00f6rfez genelinde f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 (\u0130HA) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenleyip Bahreyn\u2019de bir petrol rafinerisini vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yedinci g\u00fcn\u00fcne girdi. \u0130srail, Tahran\u2019a hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ABD ise Kuveyt\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011finde faaliyetleri ask\u0131ya ald\u0131.\n\n<h3>\u00d6nemli Veriler ve Fed G\u00fcndemi<\/h3>\nChicago Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Austan Goolsbee, kurumlar\u0131n bir \u201cg\u00fcven krizi\u201d ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (siyasi bask\u0131dan uzak karar alma) \u00f6nemini vurgulad\u0131. Piyasalar, ABD verilerini bekliyor. Bunlar aras\u0131nda Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k yeni istihdam) yer al\u0131yor; \u015eubat i\u00e7in beklenti 59 bin, Ocak\u2019ta 130 bindi. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019\u0131n (hane halk\u0131 harcamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli veri) ise Ocak\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda (aydan aya) %0,3 d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde de\u011fi\u015fim yoktu.\n\n\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 (CHF), jeopolitik gerilimle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) nedeniyle de\u011fer kazanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Antoine Martin, CHF\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye (piyasaya girip d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kuru etkileme) haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. CHF k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yo\u011fun i\u015flem g\u00f6ren bir para birimi. 2011-2015 d\u00f6neminde euroya sabitlenmi\u015fti (kurun belirli seviyede tutulmas\u0131); sabitlemenin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan CHF\u2019de %20\u2019yi a\u015fan de\u011ferlenme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\nSNB y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez toplan\u0131r ve enflasyonu %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefler. Genelde daha y\u00fcksek faiz CHF\u2019yi destekler, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz CHF\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131r. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkileri nedeniyle CHF \u00e7o\u011fu zaman euroyu takip eder; baz\u0131 tahminler bu birlikte hareketin (korelasyon: iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etme e\u011filimi) %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nUSD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7810 civar\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretmesi, piyasada z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7eki\u015fmesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeni sava\u015f, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131yla \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na talep getiriyor ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itiyor. Ancak ayn\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019de enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalmas\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya meyilli duru\u015f) destekliyor ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\n<h3>Oynakl\u0131k ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nT\u00fcrev piyasa (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu unsurlar piyasay\u0131 farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere \u00e7ekiyor. S\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (West Texas Intermediate: ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesini bir sonraki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u015fimdilik faiz indiriminin g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor (taban olu\u015fturuyor).\n\nYakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, paritede sert harekete yol a\u00e7abilecek kritik bir ba\u015fl\u0131k. \u015eubat i\u00e7in 59 binlik zay\u0131f beklenti, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Tahminden belirgin sapma, Fed beklentilerinin ve dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na (piyasan\u0131n yeni bilgiyle fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla g\u00fcncellemesi) neden olabilir.\n\nY\u00f6n yerine fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri (opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Belirsizlik nedeniyle uzun straddle veya strangle (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131k stratejileri; hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanma) almak, k\u0131r\u0131lma hangi y\u00f6nde olursa olsun f\u0131rsat verebilir. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nSNB\u2019ye de yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekiyor; yetkililer m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yledi. SNB, CHF a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesin diye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u0131k s\u0131k CHF satarak (d\u00f6viz alarak) kura m\u00fcdahale etti. Bankan\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri (d\u00f6viz cinsi varl\u0131k birikimi) 700 milyar CHF\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ve y\u00fcksek seviyede. Herhangi bir m\u00fcdahale i\u015fareti, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi s\u00fcrse bile CHF\u2019deki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 h\u0131zla geri \u00e7evirebilir.\n\nBu nedenle izlenecek ana tetikleyiciler, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler ve ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131, hem CHF\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini azaltabilir hem de petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; bu da USD\/CHF\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc destek olu\u015fturabilir. Tersine, gerilimin artmas\u0131 mevcut \u00e7eki\u015fmeyi daha da sertle\u015ftirir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CHF 0,7810\u2019da dip b\u00f6lgede: \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc 105$ \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutarken, g\u00fcvenli liman CHF\u2019yi destekliyor. G\u00f6zler ABD istihdam\u0131nda ve SNB m\u00fcdahalesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29746\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}