{"id":29681,"date":"2026-03-06T07:28:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bob-savage-ecbnin-faiz-konusunda-sabirli-olunmasi-cagrisi-yaparken-euro-bolgesi-varliklarinin-iran-kaynakli-enerji-soklarina-karsi-kirilganligini-korudugunu-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:28:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:28:40","slug":"bob-savage-ecbnin-faiz-konusunda-sabirli-olunmasi-cagrisi-yaparken-euro-bolgesi-varliklarinin-iran-kaynakli-enerji-soklarina-karsi-kirilganligini-korudugunu-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bob-savage-ecbnin-faiz-konusunda-sabirli-olunmasi-cagrisi-yaparken-euro-bolgesi-varliklarinin-iran-kaynakli-enerji-soklarina-karsi-kirilganligini-korudugunu-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Savage, ECB\u2019nin faiz konusunda sab\u0131rl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken Euro B\u00f6lgesi varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Avro B\u00f6lgesi varl\u0131klar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir enerji \u015foku (enerji arz\u0131nda ani bozulma) ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle hassas kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ECB yetkilileri, artan enerji maliyetlerine ra\u011fmen faizlerde sab\u0131rl\u0131 olunaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi.\n\nBNY\u2019de Piyasalar Makro Strateji Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bob Savage, enerji arz\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mali geni\u015flemeye (devletin harcama art\u0131rmas\u0131 veya vergi indirmesiyle ekonomiye daha fazla destek vermesi) yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Savage\u2019a g\u00f6re bu durum, \u00f6zellikle dolar hareketleri ve spread (getiri fark\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u00fclke tahvili faizi ile referans faiz aras\u0131ndaki fark) de\u011fi\u015fimleri nedeniyle finansal ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rken, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetme bask\u0131s\u0131 artarsa, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini (halk\u0131n ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini) kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.\n\n<h3>ECB Sinyali: Enerji \u015eokunda Sab\u0131r<\/h3>\nECB\u2019nin \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin mesajlar\u0131, AB tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndaki endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131; oda\u011f\u0131n Fransa\u2019da oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fransa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Banque de France) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fran\u00e7ois Villeroy de Galhau, bu a\u015famada daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na tepki olarak faiz art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bir neden olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n iki hafta sonra yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki toplant\u0131da durumu yeniden de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nVilleroy de Galhau, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tek seferlik enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli, tekrarlamayan arz kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmeyi\u201d tercih etti\u011fini belirtti. Mevcut durumun, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla k\u0131yaslanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.\n\nVilleroy de Galhau, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n Avrupa ekonomisi i\u00e7in olumsuz bir \u015fok oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ECB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Luis de Guindos ise politika i\u00e7in art\u0131k \u201cfarkl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u201d gerekti\u011fini dile getirdi.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokuna bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB yetkilileri sab\u0131r \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022\u2019deki daha sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n aksine, petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6rmeyi tercih ettiler. Bu da, ge\u00e7ici arz \u015foklar\u0131 (\u00fcretim\/arz tarafl\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bozulma) nedeniyle politikay\u0131 hemen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya isteksiz, daha temkinli bir ECB yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.\n\n<h3>Faiz ve Kur (FX) Pozisyonlamas\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n2025\u2019teki bu temkinli duru\u015f, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda destek buluyor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda; s\u00f6z konusu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemindeki zirvelerin alt\u0131nda ve 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen 120 dolar tepesine g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, acil faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve ECB\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde en son enflasyon verisi \u015fubatta %2,6 oldu ve %2 hedefe do\u011fru kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu, temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; 2025 enerji \u015fokunun, baz\u0131 endi\u015felerin aksine, y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentilerini kal\u0131c\u0131 hale getirmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dezenflasyon e\u011filimi (enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131) merkez bankas\u0131na daha fazla hareket alan\u0131 veriyor.\n\nBu arka planla, ECB\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye (faiz indirimleriyle finansman\u0131 ucuzlatmaya) ba\u015flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faiz piyasalar\u0131 2026 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 baz puan (bp; %0,01\u2019in 90 kat\u0131 = %0,90) indirim fiyatl\u0131yor; bu nedenle faiz swaplar\u0131yla (de\u011fi\u015fken faizli \u00f6demeleri sabit faizle de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yarayan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u201cal\u0131m\u0131\u201d (receive fixed; sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deme) yap\u0131yoruz. Ama\u00e7, de\u011fi\u015fken faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden faydalanmak.\n\nABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) h\u00e2l\u00e2 temkinli kalmas\u0131yla politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa EUR\/USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,08 seviyesinin alt\u0131na hareketi hedefliyoruz. ECB\u2019nin Fed\u2019e g\u00f6re daha az agresif olmas\u0131, euroda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha olas\u0131 senaryo haline getiriyor.\n\nBununla birlikte Fransa gibi \u00fclkelerde mali endi\u015feler (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi kayg\u0131lar\u0131) ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. \u00dclke tahvili spread\u2019lerinde (\u00fclke riskini yans\u0131tan faiz farklar\u0131) ani geni\u015flemeye veya piyasa kayg\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VSTOXX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (Avrupa hisse senedi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayal\u0131, volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131yoruz. Bu, Avrupa hisselerinde beklenmedik volatiliteye (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma sunar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku Avro B\u00f6lgesi varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken ECB \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d kal\u0131yor. Petrol 82 dolarda, enflasyon %2,6. Piyasalar 2026\u2019ya 90 bp indirim fiyatl\u0131yor; euroda zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Fransa spread riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29681\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}