{"id":29680,"date":"2026-03-06T07:27:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:27:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/standard-chartereddan-talha-nadeem-orta-dogudaki-catisma-turkiyenin-enflasyonunu-ve-gorunumunu-tehdit-ederken-tcmbden-temkinli-durus-ve-faiz-artislarina-ara-bekli\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:27:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:27:40","slug":"standard-chartereddan-talha-nadeem-orta-dogudaki-catisma-turkiyenin-enflasyonunu-ve-gorunumunu-tehdit-ederken-tcmbden-temkinli-durus-ve-faiz-artislarina-ara-bekli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartereddan-talha-nadeem-orta-dogudaki-catisma-turkiyenin-enflasyonunu-ve-gorunumunu-tehdit-ederken-tcmbden-temkinli-durus-ve-faiz-artislarina-ara-bekli\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered\u2019dan Talha Nadeem: Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enflasyonunu ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc tehdit ederken, TCMB\u2019den temkinli duru\u015f ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) martta politika faizini %37\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka daha \u00f6nce 100 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde y\u00fcz biri, yani 0,01 puan) indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ancak bu tahmini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in %30 beklentisini ise korudu.\n\nBeklentideki de\u011fi\u015fim, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 risklere ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Bu riskler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir, cari denge (\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz kazanc\u0131 ve harcamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir ve T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir.\n\n

Politika Fonlamas\u0131nda De\u011fi\u015fim<\/h3>\n1 Mart 2026\u2019da TCMB, bir hafta vadeli repo ihalelerini (bankalara k\u0131sa vadeli TL likidite sa\u011flama y\u00f6ntemi) durdurdu\u011funu ve bunun yerine %40 gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizinden (bankalar\u0131n TCMB\u2019den gecelik bor\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz) fonlama yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu oran, politika faizinin 300 baz puan \u00fczerinde olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131 ve biti\u015f tarihi verilmedi.\n\nTCMB ayr\u0131ca TL uzla\u015fmal\u0131 d\u00f6viz (FX; yabanc\u0131 para) vadeli sat\u0131\u015f i\u015flemleri yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Ama\u00e7, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015flemesini desteklemek.\n\nFaiz indirimini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir di\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131k enflasyon: Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k %31,53\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (ocakta %30,65). \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (ge\u00e7ici oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) ise son 12 ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %33 seviyesinde seyretti.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son ad\u0131mlar\u0131, fonlama maliyetini fiilen %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kararak \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc\u201d (do\u011frudan politika faizi art\u0131rmadan yap\u0131lan) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkisi yaratt\u0131. Bu durum, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yans\u0131malar\u0131yla birlikte 12 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi: indirime yerine %37\u2019de sabit tutma ana senaryo haline geldi.\n\n

Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nArtan belirsizli\u011fin, USD\/TRY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k son d\u00f6nemde %30\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu, piyasadaki stresin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kur hareketlerine g\u00f6re konumlanan stratejiler, TCMB\u2019nin savunmac\u0131 duru\u015fu ile lira \u00fczerindeki jeopolitik bask\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fmesi halinde avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nRiskler piyasalara yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131: Brent petrol varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enerji ithal eden bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in bu, enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS primi (\u00fclke risk sigortas\u0131 maliyeti) birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puan artarak 345 baz puana y\u00fckseldi; bu, T\u00fcrkiye varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek risk primi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n risk kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) anlam\u0131na gelir.\n\nFaiz piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, TL vadeli kur e\u011frisi (forward curve; gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck kur seviyelerinin vade boyunca da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisini fiyatlamak zorunda kalabilir. Bu da faiz indirimi pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda (iki taraf\u0131n belirli vadede faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6demek (\u201cpay fixed\u201d; sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz almak) bu ortamda daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir duru\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz rotasyon: Standard Chartered, TCMB\u2019nin martta faizi %37\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; Orta Do\u011fu riski, petrol-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 ve %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kan fiili fonlama indirim alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29680\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}