{"id":14788,"date":"2024-07-29T14:08:20","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T14:08:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=13945"},"modified":"2025-02-16T10:55:29","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T10:55:29","slug":"forex-market-analysis-stable-pce-data-points-to-fed-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-stable-pce-data-points-to-fed-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: Stable PCE Data Points to Fed Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US core PCE y\/y: Unchanged at 2.6%, missing estimates of 2.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rate probabilities: Unmoved, with a September cut fully priced in.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For real-time high-impact data and event releases, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Detailed analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PCE inflation gauge: Unchanged at 2.6% in June, below market expectations of 2.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE price index: Fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Personal income m\/m: Fell more than expected to 0.2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market reaction:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US Dollar: Apathetic, with little new information for traders ahead of the weekend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rate cuts: Markets continue to price in a 25 basis point cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting, with potential cuts also seen in November and December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Upcoming events:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC meeting: Traders will look for guidance from Chair Powell on upcoming rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Dollar index (DXY): Trading around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 104.37 and the 200-day simple moving average. A new driver is needed ahead of next Wednesday\u2019s Fed meeting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold market:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold prices: Nudged around $5\/oz. higher after the inflation report, remaining in a multi-month range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance levels: Briefly broke resistance two weeks ago but quickly returned to a range that started in early April.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">STOCK MARKET<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key highlights:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stock market fragility: The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recently experienced their worst single-day drops since 2022. The S&amp;P 500 fell over 1%, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 2.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Upcoming market drivers: A Federal Reserve meeting, the July jobs report, and earnings from major tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) will influence market direction in early August.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Federal Reserve meeting:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Monetary policy decision: The Fed will announce its decision on rates next Wednesday, with markets expecting rates to remain steady.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic updates: Core PCE index rose 2.6% in June, the lowest annual increase in over three years. CPI also showed a significant decrease.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour market: Job openings are back to pre-pandemic levels; the unemployment rate is at its highest since November 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rate cut expectations: Markets are pricing in the first rate cut in September, with investors watching for signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>July jobs report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Expected data: Economists predict 175,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour market trends: June saw 206,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Signs of labour market cooling are being debated as either normalization or significant deterioration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Big tech earnings:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Earnings reports: Tech giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings. The market is sensitive to these reports, as seen with the recent sell-off in tech stocks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market reaction: Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that recent pullbacks are due to high expectations and rotations into other market areas. Stocks missing Wall Street estimates are seeing significant negative reactions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Additional updates:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Corporate earnings: 171 members of the S&amp;P 500 are expected to report quarterly results, including AMD, Arm, Boeing, McDonald&#8217;s, and Starbucks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic indicators: Updates on job openings, services, manufacturing activities, and consumer confidence are on the calendar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CURRENCIES Key points: For real-time high-impact data and event releases, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Detailed analysis: Market reaction: Upcoming events: Gold market: STOCK MARKET Key highlights: Federal Reserve meeting: July jobs report: Big tech earnings: Additional updates: Click here to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14788\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}