{"id":14266,"date":"2024-09-12T07:02:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T07:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=14266"},"modified":"2025-02-16T10:55:28","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T10:55:28","slug":"forex-market-analysis-12-september-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-12-september-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: 12 September 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained strength on Thursday, buoyed by a recovery in global stock markets and growing expectations of a rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), which helped improve risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are mainly anticipating a 25 basis point cut from the ECB, with the main focus now on whether additional rate reductions will be hinted at for October or December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian dollar holds firm, aiming for a short-term rebound against the yen<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n
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See: The Aussie rebounded against the yen, trading at 95.184 on the\u00a0VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Examining the charts, the AUD\/JPY pair shows a solid recovery after falling to 93.588, bouncing back to 95.506 amid renewed market optimism. The Australian dollar’s rise mirrors a wider recovery in risk sentiment, with the pair’s rebound from its low coinciding with the Australian dollar’s stabilisation after reaching the 200-day moving average against the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MACD indicator on the chart reveals a bullish crossover, indicating potential for continued upward momentum in the short term. The 5, 10, and 30-day moving averages also support this upward movement as the pair approaches the 95.5 resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders will closely watch global risk sentiment, as the Australian dollar often serves as a proxy for risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If market optimism persists, the pair may see further gains, but resistance around the 95.5 level could challenge this upward momentum. Should sentiment deteriorate, a pullback to the mid-94.00s is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. inflation data dampens rate cut expectations, reducing the likelihood of RBA easing<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

One of the main drivers of market sentiment was the slightly higher-than-anticipated U.S. core consumer price reading of 0.28%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This dampened hopes for a substantial rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, leading investors to scale back expectations for near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chances of a rate cut in November have fallen to 27%, with December now seen as the more likely option at 68%, down from over 90% just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Zealand inflation slows, increasing expectations for a rate cut<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In New Zealand, August price data showed a modest 0.2% increase in food prices, while petrol, airfare, and accommodation costs declined. Consequently, Westpac lowered its inflation forecast for the September quarter from 1.1% to 0.9%. Economists now anticipate annual inflation to fall below 3% for the first time since 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on October 9, expectations lean towards a 25-basis-point rate cut, with a small chance of a more aggressive half-point reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Annual inflation rate falls below 3% for the first time since 2021 as Fed eyes potential rate cut https:\/\/t.co\/QoZMMhc2dR<\/a><\/p>— 7 News WKBW (@WKBW) August 14, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote>