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Forex market analysis: 9 October 2024

by VT Markets
/
Oct 9, 2024

As we approach midweek, Wednesday, 9 October 2024, global markets are set to react to several key developments, with investors keeping an eye on economic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical factors.

KEY INDICATORS

Asian markets & China’s economic signals

  • In Asia, market movements, especially in China (A50, HK50), will hinge on recent economic reports, including trade data and potential government stimulus actions.
  • Any signals of support for China’s slowing recovery could drive market movements, particularly in tech and industrial sectors.

European markets

  • European investors will be reacting to industrial production data and ECB policy updates, which could affect the broader market tone.
  • The European economy’s growth prospects remain in the spotlight, especially with ongoing inflation concerns and energy-related challenges.

Corporate earnings season

  • The early stages of Q3 earnings season are kicking in, and major companies from sectors like technology, consumer goods, and financials are set to release their results.
  • These reports will offer insights into the state of corporate health, consumer demand, and potential profit pressures, influencing market sentiment.

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

Possible short preference
Short positions below 2611.66 with targets at 2605.13 & 2592.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 2624.14 look for further upside with 2634.15 & 2639.66 as targets.
As long as the resistance at 2624.14 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 2605.13 remains high.

XAG/USD

Possible short indication
Short positions below 30.49 with targets at 30.29 & 30.03 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 31.07 look for further upside with 31.36 & 31.50 as targets.
A break below 30.29 would trigger a drop towards 30.03.

Crude oil WTI

Possible short preference
Short positions below 72.73 with targets at 71.95 & 71.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 74.23 look for further upside with 75.03 & 75.65 as targets.
As long as 74.23 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES

Gold extends fall to sixth day ahead of Fed, US inflation data

  • Gold extended losses for a sixth straight session on Wednesday to hover near the two-week lows hit the day before on lowered expectations of deeper rate cuts, as traders turned their focus to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and inflation data.
  • Spot gold fell 0.2% to USD 2,616.71 per ounce, having touched its lowest level since 20 September on Tuesday.
  • US gold futures for December delivery was steady at USD 2,635.20.
  • Even after the losses, gold prices are set for an over 25% rise this year after prices hit a record peak of USD 2,685.42 on 26 September.

Oil prices steady after sliding on potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

  • Oil prices steadied in Asian trading on Wednesday, as traders weighed uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East conflict against continued bearish fundamentals.
  • Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.14%, to USD 77.29 a barrel by 2:23 AM GMT.
  • US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3 cents to USD 73.60 a barrel.
  • The sell-off in the Tuesday session followed a rally that began after Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel on 1 October, culminating in an 8% gain on the week on Friday, the largest in over a year.

European markets trade higher, but sentiment dampened by volatility in China

  • The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was trading up 0.25% by midday, with only the banks and oil and gas sectors in negative territory.
  • Chinese stocks sold off in another volatile day of trading amid mixed Asia-Pacific markets overnight with the mainland CSI 300 dropping 6%.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extending its losses, falling 2.5%.
  • On Tuesday, the HSI recorded its worst day in 16 years, closing 9.41% lower.

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