{"id":37066,"date":"2026-01-26T19:31:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T19:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th\/uncategorized\/37066\/"},"modified":"2026-01-26T19:31:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T19:31:08","slug":"%e0%b8%a1%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%88-%e0%b8%8a%e0%b8%a7%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%92%e0%b8%a3%e0%b9%8c%e0%b8%8b-%e0%b8%88%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%81%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%b2%e0%b9%82%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/live-updates\/37066\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0e21\u0e2d\u0e25\u0e25\u0e35\u0e48 \u0e0a\u0e27\u0e32\u0e12\u0e23\u0e4c\u0e0b \u0e08\u0e32\u0e01\u0e23\u0e32\u0e42\u0e1a\u0e1a\u0e31\u0e07\u0e04 \u0e04\u0e32\u0e14\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e13\u0e4c\u0e27\u0e48\u0e32 \u0e18\u0e19\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e23\u0e41\u0e2b\u0e48\u0e07\u0e41\u0e04\u0e19\u0e32\u0e14\u0e32\u0e08\u0e30\u0e23\u0e31\u0e01\u0e29\u0e32\u0e2d\u0e31\u0e15\u0e23\u0e32\u0e14\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e40\u0e1a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e22\u0e44\u0e27\u0e49\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48 2.25%"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank&#8217;s RaboResearch Cross-asset Macro Strategist, Molly Schwartz, projects that the Bank of Canada will keep the policy rate steady at 2.25% on January 28. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously agree with this expectation, as current economic indicators show cooling inflation and a lack of new GDP data.\n\nThe Q4 business outlook showed improving sentiment; however, hiring is slowing, with potential layoffs. Despite these circumstances and cooling inflation, rate cuts are not predicted for 2026 due to ongoing trade conflicts with the US.\n\n<h3>Focus On Stability<\/h3>\nWith the Bank of Canada widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% this week, the immediate focus is on stability. We saw the headline CPI figure for December 2025 drop to 2.1%, sitting comfortably within the Bank&#8217;s target range and removing any pressure for a change. This widespread consensus means the January 28th decision itself is unlikely to create much market volatility.\n\nGiven the outlook for a flat policy rate throughout 2026, implied volatility on interest rate derivatives, such as options on BAX futures, should remain suppressed. This environment makes strategies like selling straddles or strangles appealing, as it allows traders to collect premium from the expected lack of significant rate moves. Traders should look for opportunities where option prices have not yet fully adjusted to this stagnant rate view.\n\nThe main driver for the Canadian dollar is not monetary policy but the ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The 15% tariff imposed on softwood lumber and aluminum in late 2025 continues to weigh on the economy, and monetary policy cannot fix this issue. This ongoing pressure suggests a weaker Canadian dollar, making long positions in USD\/CAD via forwards or options look attractive.\n\n<h3>Implications For Traders<\/h3>\nThis perspective is reinforced by the situation in the United States, where the Federal Reserve has signaled a potential rate hike to address its own wage pressures. This difference in policy is likely to widen the interest rate gap in favor of the US dollar, adding further downward pressure on the CAD. A trade structure buying USD\/CAD call options could take advantage of this expected trend over the coming months.\n\nThe weakening economic activity, confirmed by a slight 0.2% GDP contraction in the third quarter of 2025, also has implications for stocks. Statistics Canada&#8217;s latest Labour Force Survey from early January showed a net loss of 5,000 jobs, indicating slowing business investment. For derivative traders, this suggests a cautious or bearish stance on the broader Canadian market, making protective puts on the S&#038;P\/TSX 60 index a prudent hedge.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u0e40\u0e23\u0e34\u0e48\u0e21\u0e0b\u0e37\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e02\u0e32\u0e22\u0e17\u0e31\u0e19\u0e17\u0e35 &#8211; \u0e04\u0e25\u0e34\u0e01<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th\/trade-now\/\">\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e19\u0e35\u0e48<\/a> \u0e40\u0e1e\u0e37\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e2a\u0e23\u0e49\u0e32\u0e07\u0e1a\u0e31\u0e0d\u0e0a\u0e35\u0e08\u0e23\u0e34\u0e07\u0e02\u0e2d\u0e07 VT Markets <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0e21\u0e38\u0e21\u0e21\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e02\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e19\u0e31\u0e01\u0e27\u0e34\u0e40\u0e04\u0e23\u0e32\u0e30\u0e2b\u0e4c\u0e04\u0e32\u0e14\u0e27\u0e48\u0e32\u0e41\u0e1a\u0e07\u0e01\u0e4c\u0e41\u0e04\u0e19\u0e32\u0e14\u0e32\u0e08\u0e30\u0e04\u0e07\u0e2d\u0e31\u0e15\u0e23\u0e32\u0e14\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e40\u0e1a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e22\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48 2.25% \u0e43\u0e19\u0e27\u0e31\u0e19\u0e08\u0e31\u0e19\u0e17\u0e23\u0e4c\u0e19\u0e35\u0e49 \u0e2a\u0e16\u0e32\u0e19\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e13\u0e4c\u0e40\u0e28\u0e23\u0e29\u0e10\u0e01\u0e34\u0e08\u0e22\u0e31\u0e07\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e40\u0e2d\u0e37\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e2d\u0e33\u0e19\u0e27\u0e22\u0e15\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e1b\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a\u0e25\u0e14\u0e14\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e40\u0e1a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e22\u0e43\u0e19\u0e1b\u0e35 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37066\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}