{"id":24400,"date":"2025-08-24T23:28:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-24T23:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th\/uncategorized\/24400\/"},"modified":"2025-08-24T23:28:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-24T23:28:40","slug":"%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%81%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%8a%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%89%e0%b9%83%e0%b8%ab%e0%b9%89%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%ab%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%99%e0%b8%a7%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%b1%e0%b8%95%e0%b8%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/live-updates\/24400\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0e40\u0e19\u0e40\u0e01\u0e25\u0e0a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e43\u0e2b\u0e49\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e47\u0e19\u0e27\u0e48\u0e32\u0e2d\u0e31\u0e15\u0e23\u0e32\u0e14\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e40\u0e1a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e22\u0e2a\u0e39\u0e07\u0e22\u0e31\u0e07\u0e04\u0e07\u0e21\u0e35\u0e41\u0e19\u0e27\u0e42\u0e19\u0e49\u0e21\u0e2a\u0e39\u0e07 \u0e42\u0e14\u0e22\u0e22\u0e01\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e15\u0e38\u0e1c\u0e25\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e40\u0e28\u0e23\u0e29\u0e10\u0e01\u0e34\u0e08\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e2a\u0e21\u0e14\u0e38\u0e25\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30\u0e40\u0e19\u0e49\u0e19\u0e04\u0e27\u0e32\u0e21\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e47\u0e19\u0e2d\u0e34\u0e2a\u0e23\u0e30\u0e02\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e18\u0e19\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e23\u0e01\u0e25\u0e32\u0e07"},"content":{"rendered":"ECB&#8217;s Joachim Nagel stated that there is a &#8220;high bar&#8221; for additional rate cuts since both inflation and policy rates are at 2%. This stance is bolstering the euro, with markets not anticipating further rate reductions.\n\nNagel suggests rates will likely remain unchanged in September, despite Germany&#8217;s economic struggles. He emphasised central bank independence, describing it as essential for effective monetary policy, amid concerns about political influence on monetary authorities.\n\n<h3>Eurozone Equilibrium<\/h3>\n\nIn an interview at the Fed&#8217;s Jackson Hole symposium, Nagel noted the eurozone&#8217;s &#8220;equilibrium&#8221; and indicated minimal justification for further cuts after eight quarter-point reductions. He downplayed a steep decline in German GDP in Q2, suggesting growth might resume by 2026 with increased public spending.\n\nHis comments reinforce expectations for the ECB&#8217;s Governing Council to maintain its current stance in September, reflecting decisions made in July when rates were left unchanged. The importance of maintaining monetary policy autonomy remains a central theme as attention grows on external pressures faced by the U.S. Federal Reserve.\n\nWe are seeing strong signals that the European Central Bank&#8217;s rate-cutting cycle has come to an end for now. With the latest flash estimate for August inflation coming in at 2.1%, just above the 2% target, the commentary suggests a &#8220;high bar&#8221; for any further easing. This hawkish tone is likely to put a floor under short-term European interest rates in the coming weeks.\n\nFor those trading the euro, this outlook is supportive, suggesting strength against currencies with a more dovish central bank outlook. We&#8217;ve seen markets aggressively price out further easing, with the implied probability of a September cut now falling below 15% from over 50% just last month. Options strategies that benefit from a stable or rising EUR\/USD, such as selling out-of-the-money puts, could be considered.\n\n<h3>Interest Rate Markets Shift<\/h3>\n\nIn interest rate markets, this signals a time to unwind bets on further rate cuts. Looking back, the ECB delivered eight consecutive cuts starting in mid-2024, so this pause represents a significant shift in policy. We expect to see selling pressure on short-term rate futures like Euribor contracts, pushing their implied yields higher to reflect the new on-hold stance.\n\nWe must watch the incoming economic data closely, as it presents a conflicting picture. While inflation remains the focus, Germany&#8217;s economy shrank by 0.4% in the second quarter, and the latest flash PMI for the Eurozone slipped to 49.7, indicating a slight contraction. A further sharp deterioration in growth is the main risk that could challenge this new hawkish stance.\n\nA firm on-hold stance could lead to lower implied volatility in euro-denominated assets. We saw a similar dynamic after the U.S. Federal Reserve paused its hiking cycle back in 2023, which led to a period of range-bound trading. Traders might look to sell volatility through strategies like short straddles on indexes if they believe the ECB will remain predictable through the autumn.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u0e40\u0e23\u0e34\u0e48\u0e21\u0e0b\u0e37\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e02\u0e32\u0e22\u0e17\u0e31\u0e19\u0e17\u0e35 &#8211; \u0e04\u0e25\u0e34\u0e01<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th\/trade-now\/\">\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e19\u0e35\u0e48<\/a> \u0e40\u0e1e\u0e37\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e2a\u0e23\u0e49\u0e32\u0e07\u0e1a\u0e31\u0e0d\u0e0a\u0e35\u0e08\u0e23\u0e34\u0e07\u0e02\u0e2d\u0e07 VT Markets <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0e2d\u0e31\u0e15\u0e23\u0e32\u0e14\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e40\u0e1a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e22 ECB \u0e04\u0e07\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e2a\u0e39\u0e07\u0e01\u0e27\u0e48\u0e32\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e04\u0e32\u0e14 \u0e42\u0e14\u0e22\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e1b\u0e23\u0e30\u0e40\u0e21\u0e34\u0e19\u0e2a\u0e31\u0e0d\u0e0d\u0e32\u0e13\u0e40\u0e28\u0e23\u0e29\u0e10\u0e01\u0e34\u0e08\u0e22\u0e38\u0e42\u0e23\u0e1b\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30\u0e20\u0e32\u0e27\u0e30\u0e40\u0e07\u0e34\u0e19\u0e40\u0e1f\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e17\u0e33\u0e43\u0e2b\u0e49\u0e22\u0e39\u0e42\u0e23\u0e14\u0e39\u0e41\u0e02\u0e47\u0e07\u0e41\u0e01\u0e23\u0e48\u0e07\u0e02\u0e36\u0e49\u0e19\u0e43\u0e19\u0e02\u0e13\u0e30\u0e19\u0e35\u0e49 \u0e04\u0e2d\u0e22\u0e15\u0e34\u0e14\u0e15\u0e32\u0e21\u0e02\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e21\u0e39\u0e25\u0e40\u0e28\u0e23\u0e29\u0e10\u0e01\u0e34\u0e08\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e40\u0e02\u0e49\u0e32\u0e21\u0e32!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24400"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24400\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}