{"id":21864,"date":"2025-07-18T13:51:23","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T13:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th\/uncategorized\/21864\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T13:51:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T13:51:23","slug":"%e0%b8%a7%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%a5%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%a3%e0%b9%8c%e0%b8%8a%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%89%e0%b9%83%e0%b8%ab%e0%b9%89%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%ab%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%99%e0%b8%96%e0%b8%b6%e0%b8%87%e0%b8%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/th-asia\/live-updates\/21864\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0e27\u0e2d\u0e25\u0e40\u0e25\u0e2d\u0e23\u0e4c\u0e0a\u0e35\u0e49\u0e43\u0e2b\u0e49\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e47\u0e19\u0e16\u0e36\u0e07\u0e20\u0e32\u0e04\u0e40\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e0a\u0e19\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e41\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e27\u0e48\u0e32 \u0e42\u0e14\u0e22\u0e21\u0e35\u0e21\u0e38\u0e21\u0e21\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e23\u0e30\u0e21\u0e31\u0e14\u0e23\u0e30\u0e27\u0e31\u0e07\u0e40\u0e01\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e27\u0e01\u0e31\u0e1a\u0e20\u0e32\u0e29\u0e35\u0e28\u0e38\u0e25\u0e01\u0e32\u0e01\u0e23\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30\u0e04\u0e27\u0e32\u0e21\u0e04\u0e32\u0e14\u0e2b\u0e27\u0e31\u0e07\u0e40\u0e23\u0e37\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e40\u0e07\u0e34\u0e19\u0e40\u0e1f\u0e49\u0e2d\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e2a\u0e39\u0e07\u0e02\u0e36\u0e49\u0e19"},"content":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve Governor Waller notes that while current labour market numbers look acceptable, it wouldn’t take much to disrupt them. Business leaders state they are neither hiring nor firing, indicating stability but underlying worry.\n\nMonetary policy talks involve strong debate, focusing on economic arguments rather than politics. Waller stresses careful thought before opposing interest rate decisions, suggesting that timing for rate cuts is flexible, though there\u2019s no strong reason to delay.\n\n
Impact Of Tariffs On Inflation<\/h3>\nTariffs act like a tax, spreading costs among different groups. The short-term effects of tariffs on inflation should be looked at over three to six months. While some costs will pass onto consumers, they are unlikely to cause ongoing inflation unless tariffs remain in place.\n\nWaller aims to prevent a serious economic downturn, noting that long-term inflation expectations are stable. He highlights the need to keep credibility to avoid spikes in inflation expectations.\n\n
Market Reaction And Economic Slowdown<\/h3>\nBased on the Governor’s comments, we believe the market is undervaluing the risk of a near-term economic slowdown. His concern that the labour market could easily “tip” suggests we should add protection against downturns. We are considering buying options on major indices expiring after upcoming job reports.\n\nThe focus on the weakness of the private sector, despite overall numbers, is a clear signal. Recent JOLTS data shows job openings dropped to 8.059 million, the lowest since early 2021, confirming his cautious view. This reinforces our belief that derivative positions should be aimed towards a potential softening in the economy.\n\nHis comments about rate cuts suggest a strong reliance on data, creating uncertainty around the July meeting. With the market currently pricing about an 85% chance of a rate cut by September, any surprisingly weak data could significantly adjust those expectations. This makes short-term options or straddles on interest rate futures an appealing way to trade the increased volatility.\n\nThe internal disagreement at the central bank, especially between a practical member like him and a consistent hawk like Bowman, adds another layer of unpredictability. This healthy debate makes policy less certain, and we should not be overly reliant on a single outcome. Our strategy is to stay flexible, using derivatives to express views rather than holding large directional positions.\n\nHis view of tariffs as a one-time tax rather than a cause of ongoing inflation is crucial for our inflation expectations. With the latest annual core PCE inflation reading down to 2.6%, the central bank has more room to react to growth fears than the market thinks. We are therefore cautious about predicting higher inflation and are positioned for yields to fall if growth data weakens.\n