FX option expiries today feature EUR/USD at the 1.1670 and 1.1700 levels. The 1.1670 level is near key hourly moving averages of 1.1664-68, potentially limiting upward movements during the session.
The 1.1700 expiry could serve as another barrier, restricting price extensions before US trading commences. French and German PMI data are noted as key events for the euro, with the dollar focused on Federal Reserve headlines.
We are seeing significant option interest at the 1.0800 level for today’s New York cut. This concentration will likely act as a magnet, potentially capping any upside for EUR/USD in the near term. Traders should watch for price action to stall around this key strike price as the expiry approaches.
Looking back, we recall a period around this time in 2021 when major option barriers were clustered much higher, near 1.1700. The entire trading landscape has shifted since then, with the focus now on a lower range. This change highlights the sustained strength of the dollar over the past few years.
This week’s flash PMI readings reinforce the cautious mood for the euro, with the S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI coming in at a contractionary 49.5. In contrast, the US reading held in expansionary territory at 51.2, underscoring the economic divergence. This data supports a weaker outlook for the single currency.
All eyes are now turning to the Jackson Hole symposium beginning tomorrow for clues on monetary policy. With the latest US CPI print at a sticky 3.5% and Eurozone inflation moderating to 2.8%, we are closely watching for any hints of policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. Derivative traders should be positioned for potential volatility based on the central bankers’ commentary.
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