นโยบายการเงินปัจจุบัน
He described the current monetary policy as somewhat restrictive since the economy is close to its long-term neutral rate. Despite this, the Fed is open to new data to inform future policies. Before the Fed’s next meeting, Hammack will consider another jobs report and two more inflation reports. He mentioned that this is a challenging time for setting monetary policy, citing his respect for Fed Chair Powell and using future data for his decisions. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ index has decreased by 288 points, indicating market concerns. Businesses continue to deal with significant uncertainty in this economic climate. The jobs report for July 2025 was disappointing, showing only 165,000 new jobs compared to expectations of around 200,000. However, wage growth was unexpectedly strong at 0.5% for the month, keeping inflation worries at the forefront. This conflicting data is causing the NASDAQ to drop over 1.5% today as the market reacts to the news.ความกังวลเรื่องเงินเฟ้อ
The Federal Reserve is more focused on ongoing inflation pressure than on a slight cooling in the job market. The pain from rising prices is seen as a more serious economic risk at the moment. This suggests a continued aggressive approach, prioritizing the fight against inflation over fears of a slowing economy. The main concern is that businesses facing high uncertainty can no longer handle rising costs and will have to pass these costs onto consumers. Early signs of this were seen in the last CPI report for June 2025, which was higher than expected. This trend is expected to push inflation higher as we approach the end of the year. For traders dealing in complex financial instruments, this situation indicates increased market fluctuations in the coming weeks. With the Fed being highly dependent on data, the two upcoming inflation reports and the next jobs report will be crucial for market movements. Strategies that take advantage of price changes, like buying options on the volatility index or creating positions on major indices, should be considered. With the focus on persistent inflation, it is clear that interest rates will likely remain high longer than many had hoped. This environment resembles the situation we faced in 2023, where high rates limited growth and technology stock valuations. Thus, options on rate-sensitive sectors or non-profitable tech stocks could provide important protection. Policy is being described as only “a little restrictive,” indicating that the Fed believes it has more work to do if inflation remains high. All attention is on upcoming data releases to see if the job market weakens further or if inflation rises again.
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