Bitcoin Acquisition Streak
Saylor hints at another Bitcoin acquisition, marking an 11-week streak. Japan’s industrial production for May 2025 rose by 0.5% month-on-month, not meeting the anticipated 3.4% increase. In reaction to Trump’s remarks, the US dollar faced pressure, with currency rival EUR/USD peaking before stabilising. USD/JPY fell to 144.10. China’s June PMIs improved slightly; the manufacturing index indicates contraction from weak domestic demand and US trade issues, while non-manufacturing PMI showed growth. Canada withdrew a digital services tax on US tech firms, favouring resumed trade talks with the US, resulting in a stronger Canadian dollar.Canada And Trade Policy Shift
The removal of Canada’s digital services tax marks a clear shift towards more harmonius trade policy with the US. By taking this step, policymakers intend to remove past friction points which impacted North American exchange rates. Traders have already begun pricing lower uncertainty into the Canadian dollar. A firmer CAD/USD reflects this – it’s an environment that makes it harder to ride short spikes in volatility. Japan’s domestic environment remains challenging. The gap between expected industrial output and actual growth suggests capacity constraints or reduced overseas orders. Normally this would weaken inbound capital appetite, but currency moves seemed more reactive to external comments – specifically political rather than policymaker-driven criticism. The dollar’s pressure after the remarks from Trump advanced EUR/USD but the pair later found an area of balance. China continues its hesitant recovery. The composite PMI figures reinforce that consumption demand hasn’t fully returned, particularly in manufacturing. This is backed by the reference USD/CNY fix coming lower than forecast – a subtle signal often interpreted as an effort to maintain stability while not inviting speculative flows. The non-manufacturing index hints that the service sector is helping offset the drag, although it does little to shift external confidence in broader Chinese growth potential. Domestic figures from Australia and New Zealand came in slightly above expectations. In Australia, even small shifts in private credit growth can reflect downstream consumer confidence – with inflation data still rising modestly month-on-month, short-dated yields are less sensitive to surprise. We see this as reducing the probability of dovish revisions in early Reserve Bank of Australia communications. New Zealand’s jump in business confidence, while encouraging, draws attention to the outsized swings in sentiment indicators – we know this metric often overreacts to localised economic strength and cannot be viewed in isolation from housing data or global commodity trends. On the digital asset front, the consistent build-up in Bitcoin exposure by firms associated with Saylor has caught attention. Even without new macro catalysts, this buying stretch may force directional skewing in crypto derivatives. Existing net-long sentiment is nearing three-month highs. Any third-party confirmation could push shorter-dated implied volatility higher again, especially if supply remains constrained. All of this presents a complex set of clues for short-term positioning. Rate sensitivity in currencies like the JPY and NZD remains high – particularly as traders recalibrate after central bank commentary and inflation data releases. In the coming sessions, we’ll need to stay nimble. Reaction to data surprises has become faster, especially during Asia-Pacific hours where liquidity dislocations can amplify headline effects. For now, macro signals continue to point to mixed speed recoveries across regions, suggesting targeted exposure adjustments rather than broad thematic swings are likely to be more effective.
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