Policy

2 July 2026
Fed’s Warsh rules out forward guidance, reaffirms 2% inflation resolve as markets weigh AI impact

Warsh rejects Fed forward guidance, prioritizes 2% inflation, weighing AI impacts; low VIX favors options ahead.

2 July 2026
Nordea: Softer euro zone inflation dims July ECB hike odds as markets price a prolonged hold

Nordea: softer eurozone June inflation lowers July ECB hike odds, but sticky core and wages pose risks.

1 July 2026
Brazil manufacturing PMI returns to expansion in June, raising Ibovespa and real prospects, complicating rate-cut bets

Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.8 in June, signaling growth, boosting equities, real, and rate-cut doubts.

1 July 2026
OCBC flags modest dollar upside as Warsh, US payrolls and ECB caution shape policy divergence

OCBC sees modest USD upside as Warsh, payrolls, and steady labor data contrast with softer ECB stance.

1 July 2026
USMCA review uncertainty and policy divergence lift USD/CAD bias towards 1.45 in July

USMCA review uncertainty, stronger US dollar and dovish Bank of Canada pressure CAD; USD/CAD risks 1.45.

1 July 2026
Dollar holds firm as US job-cut announcements drop and Fed’s Hammack keeps tightening option alive

June job cuts fell 53%, supporting a resilient labor market, hawkish Fed stance, and firm US dollar.

1 July 2026
Poland Inflation Hits NBP Target, Markets Price Rate Cuts and EUR/PLN Upside Ahead of Meeting

Poland’s inflation hit 2.5%, shifting markets toward rate cuts and pressuring zloty; EUR/PLN upside possible.

1 July 2026
Eurozone core HICP eases to 0.2% in June, bolstering bets on ECB rate cuts

Eurozone core inflation cooled to 0.2% in June, boosting dovish ECB expectations, pressuring euro, supporting equities.

1 July 2026
Eurozone core inflation undershoots forecasts, bolstering bets on ECB rate cut and weaker euro

Eurozone core HICP hits 2.4%, below forecasts, boosting ECB rate-cut odds; bearish EUR, bullish equities outlook.

1 July 2026
Eurozone HICP slips into deflation, fuelling ECB cut bets and lifting Bunds

Eurozone HICP fell to -0.1% in June, boosting dovish ECB bets, supporting bonds, weakening euro.

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