Policy

1 July 2026
TD Securities sees June US payrolls at 80,000, keeping Fed on hold as hiring cools

TD Securities projects June payrolls at 80k, unemployment 4.2%, signaling cooling labor market and Fed hold.

1 July 2026
ECB seen staying hawkish as oil sensitivity eases, July hike odds fade but further move flagged

ECB likely stays hawkish, downplays oil sensitivity, keeps “one more hike” narrative amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

1 July 2026
US consumer confidence rises in June as jobs outlook dims, fuelling rate-cut bets and USD rebound

June consumer confidence ticked up as oil fell, but job worries rose, boosting rate-cut expectations, volatility.

1 July 2026
JOLTS Job Openings Beat Forecasts as Dollar Index Rebounds and Fed Hike Bets Build

JOLTS openings beat forecasts at 7.594M, signaling labor resilience, boosting DXY and strengthening expectations for Fed hikes.

1 July 2026
Chicago PMI slips to 56.7 in June, fuelling softer US growth and dovish Fed bets

Chicago PMI hit 56.7 in June, missing forecasts, signaling slower growth; portfolios add hedges, expect dovish Fed.

1 July 2026
Chicago PMI slips to 56.7 in June, reinforcing cooler US growth and softer Fed bets

Chicago PMI slips to 56.7, missing forecasts, signaling cooling growth; prompting protective hedges, lower-yield, weaker-dollar positioning.

1 July 2026
US Case-Shiller Home Prices Beat Forecasts as Higher-for-Longer Rates Shape Housing Trades

Case-Shiller home prices rose 1.1% in April, beating forecasts; higher rates complicate inflation outlook and strategy.

1 July 2026
US House Price Index slips 0.1% in April, fuelling bets on a more dovish Fed

U.S. HPI fell 0.1% in April, missing forecasts, boosting dovish Fed bets and housing-sector shorts.

1 July 2026
USD/INR Holds Tight Range as Indian Debt Inflows Offset Hawkish Federal Reserve Stance

USD/INR trades range-bound as Indian debt inflows offset Fed hawkishness; policy support and index-inclusion hopes.

1 July 2026
National Bank of Canada Sees US Growth Above 2% in 2026 as Sticky Inflation Keeps Fed Hawkish

US growth stays strong into 2026, but sticky core inflation keeps Fed hawkish; markets still price cuts.

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