Policy

2 July 2026
Russia’s unemployment dips to 2.1% as labour shortages keep Bank of Russia rates elevated

Russia’s jobless rate hit 2.1% in May, signaling labor shortages, wage inflation, and prolonged high rates.

2 July 2026
Banco de la República’s surprise 75bp hike to 12% lifts terminal-rate bets and flattens curve

Banco de la República hiked 75bp to 12%, signaling further tightening; expect curve flattening, peso support, volatility.

2 July 2026
HSBC Sees BoE on Hold as UK Inflation Eases; Prefers GBP Investment Grade Credit

HSBC says UK inflation remains above target; BoE stays at 3.75%, with balanced risks and modest growth.

2 July 2026
Eurozone Inflation Cools on Cheaper Energy as Commerzbank Sees ECB September Rate Rise

Eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% as energy fell; Commerzbank expects near 3% and ECB hike.

2 July 2026
US ISM manufacturing prices paid misses forecasts, easing Fed hike bets and lifting equities

ISM prices paid fell to 73 in June, cooling inflation fears, easing Fed hike odds, boosting risk assets.

2 July 2026
US construction spending undershoots forecasts, fuelling bets on Fed cuts and wider market volatility

US construction spending rose 0.1% in May, missing forecasts; cooling economy boosts Fed cut odds, volatility.

2 July 2026
US Manufacturing PMI Miss Spurs Dovish Fed Bets, Higher Volatility Hedges and EUR/USD Longs

ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3 in June, easing Fed hike odds, boosting volatility hedges, dollar weakness.

2 July 2026
Fed’s Warsh rules out forward guidance, reaffirms 2% inflation resolve as markets weigh AI impact

Warsh rejects Fed forward guidance, prioritizes 2% inflation, weighing AI impacts; low VIX favors options ahead.

2 July 2026
Nordea: Softer euro zone inflation dims July ECB hike odds as markets price a prolonged hold

Nordea: softer eurozone June inflation lowers July ECB hike odds, but sticky core and wages pose risks.

1 July 2026
Brazil manufacturing PMI returns to expansion in June, raising Ibovespa and real prospects, complicating rate-cut bets

Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.8 in June, signaling growth, boosting equities, real, and rate-cut doubts.

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