Lira

10 September 2026
Turkey industrial output decline eases in July, bolstering case for higher-for-longer interest rates

Turkey’s July industrial output fell 0.3% year-on-year, improving from June’s 1.4% decline, signaling resilience.

5 September 2026
CBRT Liquidity Normalisation Pulls TLREF to Policy Rate as Markets Price Year-End Cuts

CBRT liquidity normalization pulls TLREF to 37%; ING expects steady September, then two cuts to 35%, easing yields.

3 September 2026
Turkey inflation eases to 31.51% in August, undershooting forecasts and shaping rate-cut expectations

Turkey’s August inflation eased to 31.51%, under forecasts, strengthening odds of future rate cuts and trading opportunities.

27 August 2026
Turkish Lira Slips Past 48.10 as Inflation Expectations Outrun Central Bank Forecast

Turkey inflation momentum stays above 2% monthly; expectations rise to 29.5%, pressuring lira and boosting USD/TRY hedges.

4 August 2026
Turkey’s trade deficit widens to $10.4bn, reinforcing lira vulnerability despite 50% rates

Turkey’s June trade deficit widened to $10.4bn, imports outpacing exports, keeping lira vulnerable despite tightening.

24 July 2026
Türkiye’s central bank holds policy rate at 37% as tight liquidity keeps effective funding near 40%

Türkiye’s central bank held policy at 37%, keeping effective funding near 40%, boosting carry trades amid inflation risks.

3 July 2026
Turkey’s June inflation edges above forecasts, reinforcing expectations of CBRT holding rates at 50%

Turkey’s June CPI rose 32.11% y/y, slightly above forecasts, keeping CBRT hawkish and rates high.

29 June 2026
Turkey’s Confidence Index Climbs in May as Central Bank Holds Line and Risk Premium Eases

Turkey’s confidence index rose to 98.9 in May, still below 100, as risk perceptions eased.

15 June 2026
Turkey’s budget deficit narrows to TRY 298.2bn in May, supporting fiscal tightening narrative

Turkey’s May budget deficit narrowed to TRY 298.2bn, supporting stabilization, lira resilience, equities, and tighter spreads.

11 June 2026
ING sees CBRT holding 37% rate as lira steadies, but current account gap risks year-end slide

ING expects CBRT to hold 37%, supporting near-term lira stability, but deficits risk depreciation to 53.00.

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