Key Points
- Spot gold trades at $3,399.60, after touching a two-week high of $3,401.73.
- Markets price in an 87% chance of a September 25bp Fed cut, CME FedWatch data show.
Gold held firm on Thursday, consolidating near its highest level in over two weeks as the dollar softened and traders awaited Friday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report.
Spot gold traded at $3,399.60 per ounce, with U.S. futures up 0.2% at $3,456.20.
The dollar index slipped 0.1%, easing pressure on gold priced in the greenback. Economists expect July’s PCE to rise 2.6%, matching June’s pace.
Markets are already pricing in an 87% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, while New York Fed President John Williams added that rates “could likely fall at some point” but stressed that incoming data will shape decisions.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s move to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns over central bank independence, indirectly bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) has been consolidating after its strong rally from February’s low at 2,730 to the April peak of 3,500.
Since then, price action has flattened, moving sideways between 3,250 and 3,400 for several months, with neither bulls nor bears able to take control.
The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are clustered together and largely horizontal, showing a lack of clear trend direction. The MACD remains flat near the zero line, further highlighting the indecision in the market.
Key resistance remains at 3,400–3,500, and a clean breakout above this zone would signal renewed bullish momentum with potential toward fresh highs.
On the downside, support lies at 3,250, with a break lower opening risk toward 3,150.
Until either boundary is broken, gold is likely to continue trading in this tight consolidation range, with upcoming US economic data, central bank commentary, and global risk sentiment likely to provide the next catalyst.
Cautious Forecast
If PCE inflation surprises higher, gold could retreat back toward $3,350 as yields and the dollar firm. A softer print would reinforce dovish Fed bets, opening the door for a breakout toward $3,420–$3,500.
