Key Points
- Spot gold trades at $3,346.64, down 0.27%, after futures settled 0.4% lower at $3,395.60.
- Markets fully price in a 25bp Fed cut in September, but risk-on sentiment caps gold demand.
Gold eased on Thursday as traders shifted towards equities, pushing U.S. stock indices higher and sapping demand for safe havens.
The latest U.S. CPI data showed no monthly change in consumer prices, reinforcing expectations for a September 25 basis point rate cut — a move now considered fully priced into the market.
However, without a stronger or more extended dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, gold remains stuck in the narrow range it has held since April.
Our research desk notes that while Treasury yields have slipped, the pull towards risk assets has kept bullion from making a decisive move. The metal’s resilience earlier in the year was driven by uncertainty and elevated inflation fears; those tailwinds have now eased as markets rotate into higher-beta plays.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) has been range-bound between roughly 3,250 and 3,400, with multiple tests of both support and resistance but no clear breakout.
The short-term moving averages are now flattening, reflecting the sideways momentum, while the MACD is hovering near the zero line, signalling indecision in the market.
In the short term, a sustained move above 3,400 could invite a retest of the 3,500 high, while a break below 3,250 would expose the 3,150 region. Until either level is breached, gold is likely to continue its choppy consolidation, with traders watching for macro cues like US inflation data and interest rate expectations to spark a decisive move.
Cautious Forecast
A sustained break above $3,400 could open the way back toward $3,500, but without a fresh macro driver, gold risks grinding sideways or slipping towards $3,300. Risk-on sentiment in equities remains the key headwind for a breakout.
