{"id":69192,"date":"2026-10-05T10:52:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/uncategorized\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T10:52:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:52:44","slug":"gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"Guld testar 4\u202f210 dollar efter svag NFP-rapport pressar ned amerikanska statsobligationsr\u00e4ntor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-2-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69959\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Viktiga punkter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Antalet nya jobb utanf\u00f6r jordbrukssektorn i USA (nonfarm payrolls, NFP) \u00f6kade med bara <strong>29\u00a0000 i september<\/strong>, klart under prognosen p\u00e5 <strong>90\u00a0000<\/strong>. Augusti reviderades ned till 133\u00a0000 (en revidering betyder att tidigare siffror justeras i efterhand).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De svaga jobbsiffrorna s\u00e4nkte marknadens tro p\u00e5 att Federal Reserve (Fed, USA:s centralbank) h\u00f6jer r\u00e4ntan vid m\u00f6tet i oktober, vilket gav ett f\u00f6rsta lyft f\u00f6r guld.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Guld steg f\u00f6rst mot <strong>4\u00a0210 dollar<\/strong>, men uppg\u00e5ngen h\u00f6ll inte n\u00e4r amerikanska statsobligationsr\u00e4ntor (Treasury yields, r\u00e4ntan\/investerarnas avkastningskrav) och dollarn \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dollarindex (DXY\/USDX, som m\u00e4ter dollarns styrka mot en korg av valutor) f\u00f6ll mot <strong>101,9<\/strong>, vilket gav extra st\u00f6d \u00e5t guld.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Amerikansk inflationsstatistik och Fed-ledam\u00f6ters uttalanden blir n\u00e4sta viktiga underlag f\u00f6r f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna inf\u00f6r oktoberm\u00f6tet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Marknadsr\u00f6relse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dollarn f\u00f6rsvagades och r\u00e4ntorna p\u00e5 amerikanska statsobligationer f\u00f6ll direkt efter statistiken, n\u00e4r marknaden \u00f6kade sannolikheten f\u00f6r att Fed l\u00e4mnar r\u00e4ntan of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad i oktober. Guld steg f\u00f6rst mot <strong>4\u00a0210 dollar<\/strong>, men uppg\u00e5ngen tappade fart n\u00e4r obligationsr\u00e4ntorna senare \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig fr\u00e5n bottenniv\u00e5erna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guld \u00f6ppnade runt <strong>4\u00a0141,67<\/strong>, f\u00f6ll kort mot <strong>4\u00a0124,64<\/strong> och \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig till <strong>4\u00a0149,76<\/strong>. Priset tog fart upp\u00e5t och passerade 4\u00a0140 innan det testade omr\u00e5det 4\u00a0150\u20134\u00a0155. Drivkraften har d\u00e4refter planat ut. XAUUSD (guldpriset uttryckt i amerikanska dollar) handlas n\u00e4ra sitt glidande medelv\u00e4rde f\u00f6r 9 perioder (9-period MA, ett kortsiktigt snitt av priset) efter att tillf\u00e4lligt ha legat \u00f6ver det. Det tyder p\u00e5 att k\u00f6parna har tagit tillbaka kortsiktig mark, men utan en tydlig uppg\u00e5ng som h\u00e5ller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e4rf\u00f6r f\u00f6ljer traders detta<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guld reagerade snabbt p\u00e5 fredagens svagare amerikanska jobbrapport n\u00e4r traders (kortsiktiga marknadsakt\u00f6rer) drog ned sina f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 att Fed stramar \u00e5t (\u201dtighter\u201d penningpolitik, ofta genom h\u00f6gre r\u00e4nta) p\u00e5 kort sikt. NFP steg bara med 29\u00a0000 i september, mot v\u00e4ntade 90\u00a0000, samtidigt som arbetsl\u00f6sheten \u00f6kade till 4,2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Septemberstatistiken \u00e4ndrade marknadens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar. I st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att st\u00e4rka bilden av ytterligare en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning \u00f6kade jobbsiffrorna sannolikheten f\u00f6r att Fed pausar i oktober. Marknadspriss\u00e4ttningen (hur r\u00e4ntor och terminshandel speglar sannolikheter) l\u00e5g p\u00e5 m\u00e5ndagen p\u00e5 bara <strong>18%<\/strong> f\u00f6r en h\u00f6jning i oktober, \u00e4ven om f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna om en h\u00f6jning senare under \u00e5ret var tydligt h\u00f6gre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar kan pressa obligationsr\u00e4ntor och minska alternativkostnaden (\u201dopportunity cost\u201d, vad du avst\u00e5r fr\u00e5n) f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla \u00e4delmetaller som inte ger l\u00f6pande r\u00e4nta. En svagare dollar kan ocks\u00e5 st\u00f6tta. Men fredagens v\u00e4ndning visade att sambandet inte alltid \u00e4r rakt. Obligationsr\u00e4ntorna \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig efter det f\u00f6rsta NFP-fallet, och oro f\u00f6r fortsatt h\u00f6g inflation begr\u00e4nsar hur mycket marknaden kan r\u00e4kna bort framtida \u00e5tstramning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Viktiga niv\u00e5er<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GOLD\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">GOLD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:GOLD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niv\u00e5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Omr\u00e5de<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Varf\u00f6r den \u00e4r viktig<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Viktigt motst\u00e5nd<\/td><td>$4,210<\/td><td>Omr\u00e5de f\u00f6r uppg\u00e5ngen efter NFP och senaste testet p\u00e5 ovansidan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Psykologiskt motst\u00e5nd<\/td><td>$4,200<\/td><td>Rund niv\u00e5 som ofta p\u00e5verkar handel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kortsiktigt motst\u00e5nd<\/td><td>$4,160-$4,165<\/td><td>Dagens h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5er inom dagen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>V\u00e4ndpunkt<\/td><td>$4,150<\/td><td>Nuvarande prisomr\u00e5de och kortsiktig riktning<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>St\u00f6d<\/td><td>$4,140<\/td><td>Konsolidering inom dagen och tidigare utbrottsomr\u00e5de<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Viktigt st\u00f6d<\/td><td>$4,125-$4,130<\/td><td>Dagens l\u00e4gsta omr\u00e5de inom dagen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Djupare st\u00f6d<\/td><td>$4,100<\/td><td>Stor psykologisk niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 nedsidan<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Den n\u00e4rmaste striden st\u00e5r kring <strong>4\u00a0150 dollar<\/strong>. H\u00e5ller priset sig \u00f6ver niv\u00e5n kan \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen mot 4\u00a0160\u20134\u00a0165 forts\u00e4tta. Ett tydligt brott upp genom den zonen kan s\u00e4tta 4\u00a0200 i fokus igen, f\u00f6ljt av fredagens topp vid 4\u00a0210.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under 4\u00a0150 kan traders titta mot 4\u00a0140 och d\u00e4refter omr\u00e5det <strong>4\u00a0125\u20134\u00a0130<\/strong>. Ett varaktigt fall under den zonen skulle f\u00f6rsvaga \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen och \u00f6ppna f\u00f6r den psykologiska niv\u00e5n 4\u00a0100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenarier f\u00f6r upp- och nedg\u00e5ng<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac34ffe05ae1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Utl\u00f6sare<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Bekr\u00e4ftelse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Uppg\u00e5ng<\/td><td>H\u00e5ller \u00f6ver 4\u00a0150 och bryter 4\u00a0165<\/td><td>Starkare k\u00f6pkraft och fallande obligationsr\u00e4ntor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Utbrott<\/td><td>Varaktig r\u00f6relse \u00f6ver 4\u00a0200<\/td><td>Priset h\u00e5ller \u00f6ver den psykologiska niv\u00e5n och \u00f6ppnar f\u00f6r test av 4\u00a0210<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rekyl<\/td><td>Tillbakag\u00e5ng mot 4\u00a0140\u20134\u00a0150<\/td><td>K\u00f6pare f\u00f6rsvarar st\u00f6det och priset tar sig tillbaka \u00f6ver 9-perioders glidande medelv\u00e4rde<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nedg\u00e5ng<\/td><td>Brott under 4\u00a0125<\/td><td>Stigande r\u00e4ntor, starkare dollar eller mer h\u00f6kaktiga Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar (\u201dhawkish\u201d betyder att Fed v\u00e4ntas vara mer ben\u00e4gen att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntan)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Djupare nedg\u00e5ng<\/td><td>Varaktig r\u00f6relse under 4\u00a0100<\/td><td>Kortsiktig prisbild bryts ned<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I ett positivt scenario kan guld forts\u00e4tta \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig om k\u00f6parna beh\u00e5ller greppet \u00f6ver <strong>4\u00a0150<\/strong> och priset tar sig igenom <strong>4\u00a0160\u20134\u00a0165<\/strong>. En varaktig uppg\u00e5ng \u00f6ver <strong>4\u00a0200<\/strong> skulle st\u00e4rka uppg\u00e5ngsk\u00e4nslan och s\u00e4tta den senaste toppen vid <strong>4\u00a0210<\/strong> i fokus igen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I ett negativt scenario kan guld pressas igen om priset inte h\u00e5ller <strong>4\u00a0150<\/strong> och faller tillbaka under <strong>4\u00a0140<\/strong>. Ett brott under st\u00f6dzonen <strong>4\u00a0125\u20134\u00a0130<\/strong> skulle f\u00f6rsvaga den kortsiktiga \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen och kan \u00f6ppna f\u00f6r den psykologiska niv\u00e5n <strong>4\u00a0100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Ansvarsfriskrivning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Prisniv\u00e5erna och scenarierna ovan speglar f\u00f6rfattarens bed\u00f6mning vid skrivtillf\u00e4llet. Det \u00e4r inte finansiell r\u00e5dgivning eller en formell rekommendation fr\u00e5n VT Markets. G\u00f6r egen analys och hantera risk noggrant.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guldprognos: vad h\u00e4nder nu?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Den svagare NFP-rapporten minskar den direkta risken f\u00f6r en ny r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n Fed i oktober, vilket st\u00f6der guld. Men fredagens v\u00e4ndning visar att guld snabbt kan bli s\u00e5rbart om obligationsr\u00e4ntorna stiger igen eller om dollarn st\u00e4rks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fokus flyttas nu till kommande amerikansk inflationsstatistik och uttalanden fr\u00e5n Fed. L\u00e4gre inflation tillsammans med svagare jobbtillv\u00e4xt skulle st\u00e4rka argumentet f\u00f6r en paus i oktober. Om inflationen biter sig fast p\u00e5 h\u00f6ga niv\u00e5er, s\u00e4rskilt med mer h\u00f6kaktiga Fed-signaler, kan r\u00e4ntorna f\u00f6rbli h\u00f6ga och g\u00f6ra det sv\u00e5rare f\u00f6r guldet att h\u00e5lla sig \u00f6ver <strong>4\u00a0200<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handla guld med VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CFD-kontrakt p\u00e5 XAUUSD (CFD = kontrakt f\u00f6r skillnaden, ett derivat d\u00e4r du spekulerar i prisr\u00f6relser utan att \u00e4ga tillg\u00e5ngen) ger exponering mot guldpriset utan att k\u00f6pa fysiskt guld. Guld f\u00f6ljs ofta tillsammans med faktorer som USA-dollarn, r\u00e4ntor, inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar och geopolitik. Traders kan ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6lja US Dollar Index (USDX), som visar hur stark dollarn \u00e4r. Eftersom guld priss\u00e4tts i dollar kan en starkare dollar d\u00e4mpa efterfr\u00e5gan och p\u00e5verka priset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F\u00f6lj prisr\u00f6relser i XAUUSD tillsammans med USDX, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">valutor (forex)<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">index<\/a> och <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">andra globala CFD-marknader<\/a> hos VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Utforska alla guldprodukter hos VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Varf\u00f6r steg guld efter USA:s NFP-rapport?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guld steg f\u00f6rst eftersom jobbtillv\u00e4xten i september kom in klart under f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntan. De svagare jobbsiffrorna minskade tron p\u00e5 en ny r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n Fed i oktober, vilket inledningsvis pressade ned b\u00e5de obligationsr\u00e4ntor och dollarn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hur svag var NFP-rapporten f\u00f6r september?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NFP \u00f6kade med <strong>29\u00a0000<\/strong>, j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med en f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 cirka <strong>90\u00a0000<\/strong>. Arbetsl\u00f6sheten steg ocks\u00e5 till <strong>4,2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Varf\u00f6r backade guld efter att ha n\u00e5tt 4\u00a0210 dollar?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Den f\u00f6rsta reaktionen efter NFP tappade n\u00e4r obligationsr\u00e4ntorna \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig och marknaden fortsatte att r\u00e4kna med att Fed \u00e4nd\u00e5 kan strama \u00e5t senare under \u00e5ret. Guld gav d\u00e4rf\u00f6r tillbaka en del av uppg\u00e5ngen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Vad kan driva guld h\u00e4rn\u00e4st?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amerikansk inflationsstatistik, r\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 statsobligationer, USA-dollarn och kommentarer fr\u00e5n Fed-chefer v\u00e4ntas p\u00e5verka hur marknaden prisar in r\u00e4ntan i oktober. Just nu talar priss\u00e4ttningen tydligt f\u00f6r en paus, men f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om ytterligare \u00e5tstramning senare under \u00e5ret finns kvar.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>B\u00f6rja handla nu \u2014 klicka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/trade-now\/\">h\u00e4r<\/a> f\u00f6r att skapa ditt riktiga VT Markets-konto.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Guldet ryckte upp n\u00e4r USA:s jobbrapport missade rej\u00e4lt: NFP bara 29\u202f000 mot v\u00e4ntade 90\u202f000. Fed-h\u00f6jningsoddsen f\u00f6ll till 18%, men starkare dollar\/r\u00e4ntor bromsade. N\u00e4sta trigger: inflation och Fed-tal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Guldet ryckte upp n\u00e4r USA:s jobbrapport missade rej\u00e4lt: NFP bara 29 000 mot v\u00e4ntade 90 000. Fed-h\u00f6jningsoddsen f\u00f6ll till 18%, men starkare dollar\/r\u00e4ntor bromsade. 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