{"id":69187,"date":"2026-10-05T07:06:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T07:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/uncategorized\/nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T07:06:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T07:06:16","slug":"nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"NAS100 testar 31\u202f000 n\u00e4r svag NFP-data minskar oddsen f\u00f6r en Fed-r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nas100.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69933\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Viktiga punkter<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>September m\u00e5nads NFP (amerikanska nya jobb utanf\u00f6r jordbruket) landade p\u00e5 <strong>+29\u00a0000<\/strong> mot v\u00e4ntade <strong>+90\u00a0000<\/strong>. Augusti reviderades ned till <strong>+133\u00a0000<\/strong> fr\u00e5n +162\u00a0000 (en revidering betyder att tidigare statistik korrigeras i efterhand).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Arbetsl\u00f6sheten steg till <strong>4,2%<\/strong> fr\u00e5n 4,1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sannolikheten f\u00f6r en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n Fed i oktober f\u00f6ll till cirka <strong>22,7%<\/strong>, fr\u00e5n 64,2% en vecka tidigare.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nasdaq Composite steg <strong>1,19%<\/strong> p\u00e5 fredagen och st\u00e4ngde p\u00e5 <strong>27\u00a0190,86<\/strong>. Nvidia steg cirka 1,3% och Tesla rusade 4,7%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>N\u00e4sta viktiga punkter att bevaka \u00e4r <strong>amerikansk inflationsstatistik<\/strong> och uttalanden fr\u00e5n Fed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Marknadsr\u00f6relse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NAS100 handlades vid <strong>30\u00a0853,50<\/strong>, upp 25,20 punkter eller 0,08% fr\u00e5n f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende st\u00e4ngning p\u00e5 <strong>30\u00a0828,30<\/strong>. Kursen \u00f6ppnade vid <strong>30\u00a0869,21<\/strong> och har r\u00f6rt sig mellan dagens h\u00f6gsta <strong>31\u00a0013,25<\/strong> och l\u00e4gsta <strong>30\u00a0828,25<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I tick-grafen (en mycket kortsiktig graf som visar varje enskild prisuppdatering) konsoliderar kursen (r\u00f6r sig sidledes) runt 30\u00a0850\u201330\u00a0860, med flera f\u00f6rs\u00f6k upp\u00e5t. En rekyl upp mot 30\u00a0880 v\u00e4nde snabbt ned igen, medan k\u00f6pare kom in efter ett tidigare fall mot 30\u00a0830. NAS100 handlas nu n\u00e4ra, och n\u00e5got under, sitt glidande medelv\u00e4rde f\u00f6r 9 perioder (ett genomsnittspris som ofta anv\u00e4nds f\u00f6r att bed\u00f6ma kortsiktig riktning), vilket pekar p\u00e5 svagare kortsiktig drivkraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e4rf\u00f6r f\u00f6ljer marknaden detta<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Den svaga jobbrapporten f\u00f6r september, med <strong>29\u00a0000<\/strong> nya jobb och arbetsl\u00f6shet upp till <strong>4,2%<\/strong>, s\u00e4nkte oddsen f\u00f6r en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning i oktober till cirka <strong>22,7%<\/strong> fr\u00e5n <strong>64,2%<\/strong> veckan innan. L\u00e4gre f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntor brukar gynna teknik- och tillv\u00e4xtaktier, eftersom deras v\u00e4rderingar p\u00e5verkas mycket av finansieringskostnader (vad det kostar att l\u00e5na). <strong>Nasdaq Composite<\/strong> steg <strong>1,19%<\/strong> till <strong>27\u00a0190,86<\/strong>, med Tesla och Nvidia i t\u00e4ten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in September, pointing to a surprising soft spot in the labor market and broader economy.<br><br>Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 29,000 for the month while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0Ezz21OVH6\">pic.twitter.com\/0Ezz21OVH6<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2106005311475581366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Viktiga handelsniv\u00e5er<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/CAPITALCOM-NAS100\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">NAS100 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"CAPITALCOM:NAS100\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niv\u00e5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pris<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Typ<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Vad det betyder<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Motst\u00e5nd<\/td><td>31\u00a0000<\/td><td>J\u00e4mnt tal, n\u00e4ra dagens topp kring 30\u00a0966,7<\/td><td>En dagsst\u00e4ngning \u00f6ver niv\u00e5n bekr\u00e4ftar ett utbrott (att kursen tar sig igenom motst\u00e5ndet och h\u00e5ller sig d\u00e4r)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>30\u00a0800<\/td><td>Junih\u00f6gsta och n\u00e4ra nuvarande pris<\/td><td>H\u00e5ller niv\u00e5n st\u00e5r k\u00f6parna starkare<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>St\u00f6d<\/td><td>30\u00a0000<\/td><td>Psykologisk niv\u00e5, botten i konsolideringen i b\u00f6rjan av oktober<\/td><td>F\u00f6rsta niv\u00e5n att bevaka vid en nedg\u00e5ng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Viktigt st\u00f6d<\/td><td>29\u00a0000<\/td><td>L\u00e4gsta niv\u00e5er i intervallet augusti\u2013september<\/td><td>Ett brott ned kan signalera en st\u00f6rre f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring i trenden\/marknadsbilden<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indexet har stigit sedan b\u00f6rjan av augusti, men handelsvolymen (hur mycket som oms\u00e4tts) har varit j\u00e4mn. Det g\u00f6r bekr\u00e4ftelse extra viktig vid motst\u00e5nd. M\u00e5nga inv\u00e4ntar en dagsst\u00e4ngning \u00f6ver <strong>31\u00a0000<\/strong> innan r\u00f6relsen tolkas som ett utbrott, och f\u00f6ljer <strong>30\u00a0000<\/strong> f\u00f6r att se om k\u00f6parna f\u00f6rsvarar trenden vid en rekyl (tillf\u00e4llig nedg\u00e5ng).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenario: upp- och nedg\u00e5ng<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac34713b5a64.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Utl\u00f6sare<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Bekr\u00e4ftelse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Positivt<\/td><td>Dagsst\u00e4ngning \u00f6ver 31\u00a0000<\/td><td>Stark fart i r\u00f6relsen, l\u00e4gre inflation \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat i USA<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rekyl<\/td><td>Nedg\u00e5ng mot 30\u00a0800 eller 30\u00a0000<\/td><td>Priset h\u00e5ller st\u00f6den och den st\u00f6rre trenden best\u00e5r<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Negativt<\/td><td>Dagsst\u00e4ngning under 30\u00a0000<\/td><td>H\u00f6gre inflation \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat eller mer r\u00e4nteh\u00f6karaktiga Fed-kommentarer (signal om stramare politik)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En dagsst\u00e4ngning \u00f6ver <strong>31\u00a0000<\/strong> st\u00e4rker den positiva bilden, s\u00e4rskilt om l\u00e4gre amerikansk inflation d\u00e4mpar r\u00e4nteoron. En nedg\u00e5ng mot <strong>30\u00a0800<\/strong> kan fortfarande ses som en rekyl i en st\u00f6rre upptrend om niv\u00e5n h\u00e5ller. En dagsst\u00e4ngning under <strong>30\u00a0000<\/strong>, s\u00e4rskilt tillsammans med h\u00f6g inflation eller r\u00e4nteh\u00f6karaktiga Fed-uttalanden, \u00f6kar risken f\u00f6r en bredare nedg\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Ansvarsfriskrivning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>B\u00f6rja handla nu \u2014 klicka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/trade-now\/\">h\u00e4r<\/a> f\u00f6r att skapa ditt riktiga VT Markets-konto.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kall NFP skakar Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna: bara 29\u202f000 nya jobb och arbetsl\u00f6shet 4,2% s\u00e4nker oktoberh\u00f6jningsoddsen till 22,7%. Nasdaq lyfter; NAS100 konsoliderar kring 30\u202f850\u201431\u202f000 avg\u00f6r n\u00e4sta drag.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69186,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kall NFP skakar Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna: bara 29 000 nya jobb och arbetsl\u00f6shet 4,2% s\u00e4nker oktoberh\u00f6jningsoddsen till 22,7%. 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