{"id":69184,"date":"2026-10-05T06:54:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/uncategorized\/week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T06:54:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:54:39","slug":"week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react\/","title":{"rendered":"Veckan som kommer: Svag amerikansk jobbrapport \u00e4ndrar Fed-utsikterna n\u00e4r guld, dollarn och S&#038;P 500 reagerar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69906\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00d6versikt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USA:s syssels\u00e4ttningsrapport (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP \u2013 antal nya jobb utanf\u00f6r jordbruket) f\u00f6r september \u00f6kade med bara 29\u00a0000, samtidigt som arbetsl\u00f6sheten steg till 4,2%. Det drog ned marknadens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 \u00e4nnu en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n Federal Reserve (Fed, USA:s centralbank) i oktober.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De f\u00f6rsta r\u00f6relserna efter NFP h\u00f6ll inte i alla marknader. R\u00e4ntorna p\u00e5 amerikanska statsobligationer (Treasury yields \u2013 marknadsr\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 statspapper) v\u00e4nde upp, vilket pressade tillbaka guld och bitcoin fr\u00e5n de initiala uppg\u00e5ngarna, medan USA-b\u00f6rsen stod emot b\u00e4ttre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dollarindex (US Dollar Index\/DXY \u2013 ett m\u00e5tt p\u00e5 dollarns v\u00e4rde mot en korg av stora valutor) \u00e4r fortsatt k\u00e4nsligt f\u00f6r f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar i r\u00e4nteutsikterna. EURUSD och GBPUSD kan gynnas om dollarf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningen tar fart igen.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Handlare f\u00f6ljer USA:s tj\u00e4nstesektor, protokollet fr\u00e5n Feds m\u00f6te (FOMC minutes \u2013 detaljerad sammanfattning av diskussionen i r\u00e4ntekommitt\u00e9n) och obligationsr\u00e4ntor, samt ett tal av Bank of Japans chef Kazuo Ueda, f\u00f6r signaler om USDJPY.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna p\u00e5 en Fed-h\u00f6jning faller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F\u00f6rsta hela veckan i oktober inleds med att <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/5-steps-to-trade-forex-on-news-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">marknaden justerar sig<\/a> efter en tydligt svagare bild av USA:s arbetsmarknad. NFP \u00f6kade med bara 29\u00a0000, l\u00e5ngt under f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna p\u00e5 90\u00a0000. Arbetsl\u00f6sheten steg fr\u00e5n 4,1% till 4,2%, medan genomsnittlig timl\u00f6n \u00f6kade med bara 0,1% j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med m\u00e5naden f\u00f6re (m\u00e5nad \u00f6ver m\u00e5nad). \u00c4ven revideringar f\u00f6rsvagade bilden: \u00f6kningen i augusti skrevs ned fr\u00e5n 162\u00a0000 till 133\u00a0000, och juli\u2013augusti tillsammans reviderades ned med 60\u00a0000 jobb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapporten f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkte en f\u00f6rskjutning som redan synts tidigare i veckan. Antalet lediga jobb i USA (JOLTS \u2013 statistik \u00f6ver vakanser) f\u00f6ll med 256\u00a0000 till 7,079 miljoner, samtidigt som l\u00e4gre PCE-inflation (PCE \u2013 Feds viktigaste inflationsm\u00e5tt, baserat p\u00e5 hush\u00e5llens konsumtion) minskade pressen p\u00e5 Fed att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntan snabbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bond traders pared back their expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month on indications of weakness in the US labor market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/19EPODQqGQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/19EPODQqGQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106044101430804728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marknadens priss\u00e4ttning sv\u00e4ngde snabbt. Sannolikheten f\u00f6r en ny r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning i oktober l\u00e5g n\u00e4ra 70% i b\u00f6rjan av f\u00f6rra veckan. Den f\u00f6ll mot 38% n\u00e4r svagare data kom in, och sj\u00f6nk till runt 22% efter fredagens jobbrapport. Nu beh\u00f6ver marknaden bed\u00f6ma om svagare arbetsmarknadsdata kan h\u00e5lla tillbaka r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna n\u00e4r inflation, oljepriser och l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 amerikanska statsobligationer fortfarande \u00e4r h\u00f6ga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFP \u00e4ndrade r\u00e4ntebilden \u2013 men obligationsr\u00e4ntorna gjorde reaktionen mer komplicerad<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Svagare jobbsiffror minskade f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna p\u00e5 fortsatt \u00e5tstramning (monet\u00e4r \u00e5tstramning \u2013 att centralbanken h\u00f6jer r\u00e4ntan eller drar ned stimulans). R\u00e4ntorna f\u00f6ll f\u00f6rst och dollarn f\u00f6rsvagades, samtidigt som guld, bitcoin och USA-aktier steg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Samtidigt f\u00f6ll <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-read-the-10-year-treasury-yield-chart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">r\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 10-\u00e5riga amerikanska statsobligationer<\/a> mot 5,16% efter NFP, men v\u00e4nde sedan upp senare under dagen. Investerare fokuserade \u00e5ter p\u00e5 inflationsrisker, h\u00f6ga oljepriser samt oro kring statsskulden och stort utbud av nya statsobligationer (Treasury supply \u2013 hur mycket staten l\u00e5nar via nya emissioner).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why surging Treasury yields don\u2019t signal a U.S. &#39;fiscal apocalypse&#39; \u2014 yet <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gBzhgst2KH\">https:\/\/t.co\/gBzhgst2KH<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2106931289680916646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det gav en delad bild. Marknaden blev mindre \u00f6vertygad om att Fed h\u00f6jer i oktober, men k\u00e4nde sig inte tryggare med inflationsutsikterna p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. Om kortsiktiga Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar d\u00e4mpas samtidigt som l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor f\u00f6rblir h\u00f6ga kan dollarn f\u00e5 sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 brett st\u00f6d. Samtidigt kan r\u00e4ntek\u00e4nsliga tillg\u00e5ngar, som guld och teknikaktier, \u00e4nd\u00e5 pressas i perioder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollarn pr\u00f6vas n\u00e4r marknaden r\u00e4knar om efter NFP<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dollarns index (USDX\/DXY) f\u00f6ll fr\u00e5n cirka 102,00 till runt 101,66 direkt efter jobbrapporten n\u00e4r handlare skruvade ned sannolikheten f\u00f6r en h\u00f6jning i oktober. Indexet \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig senare mot 101,92 n\u00e4r obligationsr\u00e4ntorna steg igen, men l\u00e5g \u00e4nd\u00e5 under niv\u00e5n f\u00f6re NFP. Skillnader i r\u00e4ntel\u00e4ge, f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 USA-tillv\u00e4xt, efterfr\u00e5gan p\u00e5 \u201dtrygga hamnar\u201d (safe haven \u2013 tillg\u00e5ngar som k\u00f6ps i oro) och l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/why-does-dxy-rise-in-uncertain-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00e4r fortsatt viktiga<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar fell to a session low on Friday after a report showed the US added fewer jobs than expected in September, leading traders to trim bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y1IM1GpVd1\">https:\/\/t.co\/y1IM1GpVd1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106076790728847776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDX har redan brutit \u00f6ver den tidigare toppniv\u00e5n 101,473, men scenariot pekar fortfarande mot risk f\u00f6r vidare nedg\u00e5ng. Ett fall mot <strong>101,00<\/strong> skulle ge s\u00e4ljarna \u00f6vertag. Om indexet i st\u00e4llet stiger blir <strong>102,55<\/strong> n\u00e4sta niv\u00e5 att bevaka f\u00f6r att se om s\u00e4ljtrycket kommer tillbaka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dollarutvecklingen kan ocks\u00e5 styra de stora valutaparen. EURUSD \u00e4r pressad men kan f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig, d\u00e4r <strong>1,1350<\/strong> \u00e4r f\u00f6rsta niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 uppsidan att bevaka. Om nedg\u00e5ngen forts\u00e4tter f\u00f6rst utg\u00f6r <strong>1,1200\u20131,1150<\/strong> ett st\u00f6domr\u00e5de (st\u00f6d \u2013 niv\u00e5 d\u00e4r k\u00f6pare ofta kliver in). GBPUSD gjorde ocks\u00e5 en ny botten f\u00f6rra veckan. Bilden ger utrymme f\u00f6r en \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning mot <strong>1,3380<\/strong>, men kursen kan bryta under <strong>1,31393<\/strong> innan en tydligare v\u00e4ndning tar form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guld f\u00e5r st\u00f6d av l\u00e4gre Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar \u2013 men inte av h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/xau-usd-trading-a-beginners-guide-to-gold-vs-us-dollar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Guld<\/a> reagerade f\u00f6rst tydligt p\u00e5 den svagare jobbrapporten. Priset steg fr\u00e5n cirka <strong>4\u00a0185 dollar till \u00f6ver 4\u00a0227 dollar<\/strong> n\u00e4r obligationsr\u00e4ntor och dollarn f\u00f6ll. Det speglar att alternativkostnaden minskar (alternativkostnad \u2013 vad du g\u00e5r miste om) n\u00e4r man h\u00e5ller en tillg\u00e5ng utan l\u00f6pande avkastning, som guld.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uppg\u00e5ngen h\u00f6ll dock inte. N\u00e4r obligationsr\u00e4ntorna v\u00e4nde upp f\u00f6ll guldet snabbt tillbaka mot <strong>4\u00a0125\u20134\u00a0140<\/strong>. Guldet hamnar d\u00e4rmed mellan tv\u00e5 krafter: l\u00e4gre f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 en snabb Fed-h\u00f6jning kan st\u00f6dja priset, men h\u00f6ga l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor g\u00f6r det mindre attraktivt att h\u00e5lla guld eftersom alternativkostnaden \u00f6kar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tekniskt (teknisk analys \u2013 tolkning av prisniv\u00e5er och m\u00f6nster) \u00e4r <strong>4\u00a0280<\/strong> den viktigaste niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 uppsidan om guldet stabiliseras och studsar. Niv\u00e5n tappar betydelse om priset f\u00f6rst bryter under <strong>4\u00a0111,31<\/strong>. Vid fortsatt nedg\u00e5ng pekas <strong>4\u00a0080<\/strong> ut som n\u00e4sta omr\u00e5de d\u00e4r k\u00f6pare kan bli mer aktiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 gillade minskad r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningsrisk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USA-aktier reagerade mer positivt p\u00e5 f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade Fed-f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/sp-500-trading-guide\/\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> steg fr\u00e5n cirka <strong>7\u00a0675 till \u00f6ver 7\u00a0750<\/strong> efter NFP. Senare gav indexet tillbaka en del men st\u00e4ngde n\u00e4ra <strong>7\u00a0720<\/strong>, \u00f6ver niv\u00e5n f\u00f6re statistiken. Indexet steg omkring <strong>0,7% p\u00e5 fredagen<\/strong>, medan Nasdaq \u00f6kade cirka <strong>1,2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US stocks recovered from early losses to close slightly higher, with the S&amp;P 500 bouncing from a two-week low as a global bond selloff reversed course after sending US Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. Lisa Bernhard reports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Kqd3P9o0WL\">https:\/\/t.co\/Kqd3P9o0WL<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8D05e2hjSA\">pic.twitter.com\/8D05e2hjSA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2105809990854615068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reaktionen tyder p\u00e5 att aktieinvesterare fortfarande ser en kontrollerad inbromsning i jobbtillv\u00e4xten som positiv, s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge den inte signalerar en tydlig nedg\u00e5ng i ekonomin. Svagare arbetsmarknad kan st\u00f6dja aktier om den minskar risken f\u00f6r h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor, utan att peka mot en kraftig recession. Om l\u00e4get snabbt f\u00f6rs\u00e4mras kan fokus skifta mot svagare konsumtion och l\u00e4gre vinster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P 500 har fortsatt f\u00e5 st\u00f6d kring <strong>7\u00a0635<\/strong>. Om indexet r\u00f6r sig sidledes (konsoliderar \u2013 pendlar i ett intervall) kan det bana v\u00e4g f\u00f6r ett nytt test upp\u00e5t. Fortsatt fokus ligger p\u00e5 obligationsr\u00e4ntorna: en ny uppg\u00e5ng i l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor kan pressa aktiev\u00e4rderingar, s\u00e4rskilt i r\u00e4ntek\u00e4nsliga tillv\u00e4xtbolag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin tappar efter NFP-uppg\u00e5ngen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-bitcoin-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BTCUSD<\/a> handlades n\u00e4ra <strong>87\u00a0165 dollar<\/strong>, upp cirka 2,5% vid \u00f6ppning i USA, och nosade kort p\u00e5 <strong>87\u00a0220<\/strong> efter jobbrapporten. D\u00e4refter v\u00e4nde r\u00f6relsen ned kraftigt, och bitcoin f\u00f6ll tillbaka mot <strong>84\u00a0000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Till skillnad fr\u00e5n aktier ger bitcoin inga vinster eller utdelningar. Kopplingen till Fed g\u00e5r i st\u00e4llet via likviditet (likviditet \u2013 hur mycket kapital som finns tillg\u00e4ngligt i systemet), dollarn och riskvilja. L\u00e4gre f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade r\u00e4ntor kan g\u00f6ra finansieringen billigare och \u00f6ka viljan att k\u00f6pa mer riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar. Men fredagens v\u00e4ndning visar att l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar i sig inte r\u00e4ckte f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla uppg\u00e5ngen vid liv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Den tekniska bilden \u00e4r fortsatt viktig efter att BTC fick st\u00f6d kring <strong>82\u00a0085<\/strong>. Om bitcoin faller igen \u00e4r <strong>78\u00a0450<\/strong> och <strong>76\u00a0450<\/strong> n\u00e4sta omr\u00e5den d\u00e4r k\u00f6pare kan komma in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDJPY riktar blickarna mot Bank of Japan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yenen ger ett nytt centralbankstema den h\u00e4r veckan. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/a-complete-guide-to-vt-markets-forex-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USDJPY<\/a> var n\u00e4ra <strong>158,75<\/strong> innan paret f\u00f6ll och gick in i en lugnare fas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The yen weakened against the dollar after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan\u2019s September meeting disappointed investors looking for signs that policymakers may be preparing for another move this month <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1OPs0LXqrO\">https:\/\/t.co\/1OPs0LXqrO<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2105518070613586358?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fokus flyttas nu till BOJ-chefen Kazuo Ueda, som talar p\u00e5 tisdag. Handlare letar efter ledtr\u00e5dar om Bank of Japans r\u00e4ntebana (r\u00e4ntebana \u2013 marknadens bild av hur r\u00e4ntan kan utvecklas), s\u00e4rskilt efter att Japan stramat \u00e5t penningpolitiken i takt med ih\u00e5llande inflation och en svag yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F\u00f6r USDJPY \u00e4r <strong>155,85<\/strong> f\u00f6rsta niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 nedsidan att bevaka. Om kursen i st\u00e4llet stiger blir <strong>160,25<\/strong> ett viktigt motst\u00e5nd (motst\u00e5nd \u2013 niv\u00e5 d\u00e4r s\u00e4ljare ofta \u00f6kar).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Viktiga symboler att bevaka<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">XAUUSD | USDX | SP500 | BTCUSD | USDJPY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kommande h\u00e4ndelser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Datum<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Valuta<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">H\u00e4ndelse<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prognos<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">F\u00f6reg\u00e5ende<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Analytikerns kommentar<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5 okt<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Services PMI (ink\u00f6pschefsindex f\u00f6r tj\u00e4nster \u2013 temperaturm\u00e4tare p\u00e5 aktiviteten)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">55,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">55,4<\/td><td>Tj\u00e4nstesektorn kan visa om svag jobbtillv\u00e4xt speglar en bredare inbromsning. Delindex f\u00f6r syssels\u00e4ttning och priser \u00e4r s\u00e4rskilt viktiga.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 okt<\/td><td>JPY<\/td><td>BOJ-chefen Ueda talar<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td>Lyssna efter besked om inflation, yenen och tidpunkten f\u00f6r fler r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar fr\u00e5n BOJ.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8 okt<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>FOMC-protokoll (minuter \u2013 sammanfattning av m\u00f6tet)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td>Fokus p\u00e5 hur beslutsfattarna s\u00e5g p\u00e5 inflationsriskerna och argumenten f\u00f6r fler h\u00f6jningar p\u00e5 septemberm\u00f6tet.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Veckans viktigaste r\u00f6relser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">XAUUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bed7c2a5.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Om guldet forts\u00e4tter att r\u00f6ra sig sidledes, leta efter s\u00e4ljsignaler (bearish price action \u2013 tecken i prisr\u00f6relsen p\u00e5 att s\u00e4ljare tar \u00f6ver) vid 4\u00a0280. Anv\u00e4nd inte niv\u00e5n om priset f\u00f6rst bryter under 4\u00a0111,31 innan 4\u00a0280 testas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om priset faller, leta efter k\u00f6psignaler (bullish price action \u2013 tecken p\u00e5 att k\u00f6pare tar \u00f6ver) vid 4\u00a0080.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDX<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bef5d3a9.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Efter att ha tagit sig \u00f6ver den tidigare toppniv\u00e5n 101,473 v\u00e4ntas USDX kunna falla.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Efter NFP, som visade en svagare arbetsmarknad, var f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningen att USDX skulle forts\u00e4tta ned men r\u00f6relsen h\u00f6ll inte. F\u00f6lj m\u00e5ndagens handel f\u00f6r att se om s\u00e4ljare kommer tillbaka. Om s\u00e5 sker: bevaka 101,00.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om priserna i st\u00e4llet stiger: leta efter s\u00e4ljsignaler vid 102,55.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bf129086.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500 steg \u00e5ter fr\u00e5n den bevakade niv\u00e5n 7\u00a0635.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om priset f\u00f6rst r\u00f6r sig sidledes kan SP500 stiga igen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BTCUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bitcoin-image-1024x576.png\" alt=\"bitcoin trading chart\" class=\"wp-image-69924\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC fick st\u00f6d vid 82\u00a0085.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om BTC faller: leta efter k\u00f6psignaler vid 78\u00a0450 eller 76\u00a0450.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDJPY<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bf45c06f.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDJPY var n\u00e4ra 158,75 och f\u00f6ll, vilket gjorde att paret gick in i en lugnare fas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om priset faller: bevaka 155,85.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Om priset stiger vidare: leta efter s\u00e4ljsignaler vid 160,25. Den niv\u00e5n blir s\u00e4rskilt viktig f\u00f6r USDJPY.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Slutsats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Syssels\u00e4ttningsrapporten f\u00f6r september f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade bilden f\u00f6r Fed p\u00e5 kort sikt. En jobbtillv\u00e4xt p\u00e5 bara 29\u00a0000, arbetsl\u00f6shet p\u00e5 4,2% och svagare l\u00f6ne\u00f6kningar har pressat ned sannolikheten f\u00f6r en ny r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning i oktober. Samtidigt \u00e4r reaktionen mellan tillg\u00e5ngsslag mer sv\u00e5rtolkad eftersom l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 amerikanska statsobligationer fortsatt speglar risker kopplade till inflation, energi och statsfinanser. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r hamnar obligationsr\u00e4ntorna i centrum i veckan. Fallande r\u00e4ntor skulle \u00f6ka pressen p\u00e5 dollarn och kunna st\u00f6dja guld, aktier och andra riskfyllda tillg\u00e5ngar. Stigande r\u00e4ntor kan ge motsatt effekt \u00e4ven om Fed avvaktar i oktober.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Varf\u00f6r f\u00f6ll dollarn efter NFP-rapporten f\u00f6r september?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dollarn f\u00f6rsvagades f\u00f6rst eftersom NFP bara \u00f6kade med 29\u00a0000, klart under f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna runt 90\u00a0000. Arbetsl\u00f6sheten steg ocks\u00e5 fr\u00e5n 4,1% till 4,2%. Det minskade marknadens tro p\u00e5 en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning i oktober och d\u00e4rmed dollarns st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor p\u00e5 kort sikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vad betyder svagare jobbsiffror i USA f\u00f6r Fed?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Septemberrapporten st\u00e4rkte argumenten f\u00f6r att Fed kan l\u00e4mna r\u00e4ntan of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad i oktober. Marknadens sannolikhet f\u00f6r en h\u00f6jning f\u00f6ll fr\u00e5n runt 70% i b\u00f6rjan av f\u00f6rra veckan till cirka 22% efter NFP. Inflation, obligationsr\u00e4ntor och kommande statistik kan fortfarande p\u00e5verka bilden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kan guldpriset stiga i veckan?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guld kan f\u00e5 st\u00f6d om obligationsr\u00e4ntor och dollarn faller n\u00e4r marknaden r\u00e4knar med en mindre aggressiv Fed. Men fredagen visade att l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar inte alltid r\u00e4cker. Guldet steg \u00f6ver 4\u00a0227 dollar efter NFP men v\u00e4nde ned n\u00e4r r\u00e4ntorna \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Varf\u00f6r steg S&amp;P 500 efter svagare syssels\u00e4ttningsdata?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P 500 gynnades f\u00f6rst eftersom svagare jobbsiffror minskade sannolikheten f\u00f6r en snabb ny r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning. L\u00e4gre f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade r\u00e4ntor kan minska pressen p\u00e5 aktiev\u00e4rderingar. En betydligt snabbare f\u00f6rs\u00e4mring p\u00e5 arbetsmarknaden kan \u00e4ndra bilden om investerare i st\u00e4llet fokuserar p\u00e5 svagare tillv\u00e4xt och l\u00e4gre vinster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vad kan p\u00e5verka bitcoin i veckan?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin p\u00e5verkas fr\u00e4mst av global likviditet, f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 amerikanska r\u00e4ntor, dollarn och riskvilja. BTCUSD steg f\u00f6rst mot 87\u00a0220 dollar efter NFP men v\u00e4nde senare ned mot 84\u00a0000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vilka marknadsh\u00e4ndelser \u00e4r viktigast att bevaka i veckan?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F\u00f6lj USA-statistik f\u00f6r tj\u00e4nstesektorn, BOJ-chefen Kazuo Uedas kommentarer och FOMC-protokollet. Obligationsr\u00e4ntorna \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 viktiga eftersom uppg\u00e5ngen efter NFP p\u00e5verkade guld, bitcoin och dollarn.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>B\u00f6rja handla nu \u2014 klicka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/trade-now\/\">h\u00e4r<\/a> f\u00f6r att skapa ditt riktiga VT Markets-konto.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NFP chocksvagt: 29\u202f000 nya jobb och arbetsl\u00f6shet 4,2% s\u00e4nker odds f\u00f6r Fed-h\u00f6jning i oktober till cirka 22%. Men stigande l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor pressar guld och bitcoin; dollarn, aktier och USDJPY i fokus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69183,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NFP chocksvagt: 29 000 nya jobb och arbetsl\u00f6shet 4,2% s\u00e4nker odds f\u00f6r Fed-h\u00f6jning i oktober till cirka 22%. 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