{"id":38104,"date":"2026-03-26T07:38:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/uncategorized\/dollarn-tar-en-paus-nara-toppnivaerna-nar-ranteforvantningarna-dampas\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T07:38:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:38:58","slug":"dollarn-tar-en-paus-nara-toppnivaerna-nar-ranteforvantningarna-dampas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/dollarn-tar-en-paus-nara-toppnivaerna-nar-ranteforvantningarna-dampas\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollarn tar en paus n\u00e4ra toppniv\u00e5erna n\u00e4r r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna d\u00e4mpas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/05\/USD4-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-44229\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Viktiga punkter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USDX backar till 99,576<\/strong> efter en stark f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende handelsdag.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Terminspriser p\u00e5 Fed-r\u00e4ntan<\/strong> (marknadens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 styrr\u00e4ntan) visar <strong>64,4% sannolikhet f\u00f6r of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad r\u00e4nta till december<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Marknaden styrs av <strong>nyhetsrubriker<\/strong> i sp\u00e5ren av os\u00e4kerhet i Mellan\u00f6stern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>USA-dollarn f\u00f6rsvagades n\u00e5got i den asiatiska handeln. <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> \u2013 ett m\u00e5tt p\u00e5 dollarns v\u00e4rde mot en korg av stora valutor \u2013 f\u00f6ll <strong>0,1% till 99,576<\/strong> efter den starkaste dagsuppg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 en vecka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rekylen speglar \u00e4ndrade f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 Federal Reserve (Fed), USA:s centralbank. Handlare har dragit ned p\u00e5 tron p\u00e5 fler r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar. Marknaden priss\u00e4tter nu <strong>64,4% sannolikhet<\/strong> f\u00f6r att Fed <strong>l\u00e5ter r\u00e4ntan ligga still<\/strong> i december, upp fr\u00e5n <strong>60,2%<\/strong> dagen innan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh wants to significantly shrink the US central bank\u2019s $6.6 trillion balance sheet. He\u2019ll probably need more than one term to do it, according to a top financial economist. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NhPebH0O22\">https:\/\/t.co\/NhPebH0O22<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2036978563203658043?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>F\u00f6r\u00e4ndringen visar hur snabbt marknadsst\u00e4mningen kan sv\u00e4nga n\u00e4r synen p\u00e5 inflation \u2013 allts\u00e5 pris\u00f6kningstakten \u2013 omv\u00e4rderas efter nya h\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dollarn kan r\u00f6ra sig sidledes kring dagens niv\u00e5er i v\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 tydligare besked om penningpolitiken, det vill s\u00e4ga hur centralbanken styr r\u00e4ntan och likviditeten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201dStrait Talk\u201d h\u00e5ller marknaden p\u00e5 helsp\u00e4nn<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Riskaptiten \u00e4r fortsatt d\u00e4mpad n\u00e4r handlare f\u00f6ljer utvecklingen i Mellan\u00f6stern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran uppgav att man ser \u00f6ver ett amerikanskt f\u00f6rslag f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 konflikten, men sade samtidigt att man <strong>inte t\u00e4nker delta i direkta samtal<\/strong>. Det h\u00e5ller os\u00e4kerheten h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran said it rejected a US ceasefire proposal and issued its own conditions for the end of the war. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/R0GbkXsxil\">https:\/\/t.co\/R0GbkXsxil<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2036918217411616873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Marknaden reagerar p\u00e5 varje rubrik. Analytiker beskriver l\u00e4get som tydligt <strong>rubrikstyrt<\/strong>. Handlare f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker avg\u00f6ra om signalerna pekar mot nedtrappning eller en utdragen konflikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran&#39;s grip on the Strait of Hormuz shows that chokepoints in geography, trade and technology can shift the global balance of power, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HalBrands?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@halbrands<\/a> writes (via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/opinion?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@opinion<\/a>)  <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pXLsWYkNZ0\">https:\/\/t.co\/pXLsWYkNZ0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2037034323082195354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Os\u00e4kerheten g\u00f6r det sv\u00e5rare f\u00f6r valutor och aktier att v\u00e4lja tydlig riktning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Motstridiga besked kan h\u00e5lla sv\u00e4ngningarna uppe och bromsa en tydlig trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oljepris och inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar styr r\u00e4ntebilden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Den tidigare st\u00e4ngningen av Hormuzsundet \u2013 en viktig transportv\u00e4g f\u00f6r olja \u2013 lyfte energipriserna och fick marknaden att ompr\u00f6va inflationsrisken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Iranian parliament is working on a draft bill to charge a fee in exchange for providing security to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Fars news agency <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BlnzJSFiLi\">https:\/\/t.co\/BlnzJSFiLi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2036976613225562621?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00e4r oljepriset nu stabiliseras fr\u00e5gar sig allt fler om inflationsst\u00f6ten blir tillr\u00e4ckligt l\u00e5ngvarig f\u00f6r att motivera stramare penningpolitik, allts\u00e5 h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En v\u00e4xande uppfattning \u00e4r att centralbanker, inklusive Fed, kan v\u00e4lja att se igenom en tillf\u00e4llig energidriven inflationsuppg\u00e5ng i st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att reagera kraftigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det har d\u00e4mpat f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar och p\u00e5verkar hur investerare positionerar sig i valutor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Olika signaler fr\u00e5n centralbanker pressar valutamarknaden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Valutor p\u00e5verkas allt mer av att centralbanker drar \u00e5t olika h\u00e5ll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Euron steg <strong>0,1% till 1,1570 dollar<\/strong>, efter kommentarer fr\u00e5n Europeiska centralbanken (ECB) som antydde att fler r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar kan bli aktuella om inflationen biter sig fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Samtidigt f\u00f6ll dollarn <strong>0,1% till 159,39 yen<\/strong>, trots att den ligger n\u00e4ra de starkaste niv\u00e5erna sedan 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I Japan bidrar stigande obligationsr\u00e4ntor och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om stramare politik till ett mer komplext l\u00e4ge. Marknaden priss\u00e4tter <strong>61,9% sannolikhet<\/strong> f\u00f6r en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning till <strong>1%<\/strong> vid <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ly1Gk5gZKc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Bank of Japans m\u00f6te den 28 april<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det kan \u00e4ndra r\u00e4nteskillnaderna mellan l\u00e4nder \u2013 allts\u00e5 skillnaden i avkastning p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntor och obligationer \u2013 s\u00e4rskilt om Fed pausar medan andra centralbanker lutar mot h\u00f6jningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Valutapar kan d\u00e4rf\u00f6r forts\u00e4tta pendla inom intervall n\u00e4r penningpolitisk skillnad blir en huvudfaktor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Teknisk analys<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> handlas kring <strong>99,45<\/strong>, marginellt upp f\u00f6r dagen, och forts\u00e4tter att r\u00f6ra sig sidledes strax under <strong>100-niv\u00e5n<\/strong>. Kursr\u00f6relserna visar en paus efter \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen fr\u00e5n <strong>l\u00e4gsta 95,33<\/strong>, samtidigt som takten i uppg\u00e5ngen mattas p\u00e5 kort sikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tekniskt \u00e4r bilden f\u00f6rsiktigt positiv men utan tydlig riktning. <strong>5-dagars glidande medelv\u00e4rde (MA) (99,20)<\/strong> och <strong>10-dagars MA (99,38)<\/strong> ligger n\u00e4ra varandra runt nuvarande niv\u00e5, vilket signalerar att marknaden saknar tydlig trend. Samtidigt lutar <strong>20-dagars MA (99,06)<\/strong> och <strong>30-dagars MA (98,52)<\/strong> upp\u00e5t, vilket talar f\u00f6r att \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen p\u00e5 lite l\u00e4ngre sikt lever kvar. (Glidande medelv\u00e4rde \u00e4r ett genomsnitt av tidigare st\u00e4ngningskurser som anv\u00e4nds f\u00f6r att se trenden.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/05\/image-32-1024x496.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45566\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Viktiga niv\u00e5er att bevaka:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>St\u00f6d:<\/strong><strong> 99,00 \u2192 98,50 \u2192 97,80<\/strong> (niv\u00e5er d\u00e4r kursen ofta f\u00e5r \u201dgolv\u201d)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Motst\u00e5nd:<\/strong><strong> 100,30 \u2192 100,70 \u2192 101,00<\/strong> (niv\u00e5er d\u00e4r uppg\u00e5ngar ofta bromsar)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Indexet r\u00f6r sig nu i ett <strong>sn\u00e4vt intervall mellan 99,00 och 100,30<\/strong>, med upprepade nedg\u00e5ngar fr\u00e5n <strong>motst\u00e5ndet vid 100,30<\/strong>. En tydlig uppg\u00e5ng \u00f6ver niv\u00e5n kan ge ny kraft upp mot <strong>100,70 och h\u00f6gre<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u00e5 nedsidan fungerar <strong>99,00<\/strong> som n\u00e4rmaste st\u00f6d. Ett fall under niv\u00e5n kan \u00f6ppna f\u00f6r en rekyl mot <strong>98,50<\/strong>, d\u00e4r <strong>20-dagars snittet<\/strong> kan ge extra st\u00f6d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oms\u00e4ttningen (handelsvolymen) har minskat n\u00e5got, vilket st\u00e4rker bilden av att marknaden <strong>konsoliderar<\/strong> \u2013 allts\u00e5 r\u00f6r sig sidledes \u2013 snarare \u00e4n att trenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Det h\u00e4r b\u00f6r handlare f\u00f6lja h\u00e4rn\u00e4st<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Marknaden reagerar snabbt p\u00e5 b\u00e5de makrodata (som inflation och jobbstatistik) och geopolitik. Viktiga drivkrafter \u00e4r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Utvecklingen i f\u00f6rhandlingarna i Mellan\u00f6stern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oljeprisets riktning och tillg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 olja.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Signaler fr\u00e5n Fed och inflationsutfall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Skillnader i r\u00e4ntepolitik mellan v\u00e4rldens centralbanker.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>B\u00f6rja handla nu &#8211; Klicka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/trade-now\/\">h\u00e4r<\/a> f\u00f6r att skapa ditt riktiga VT Markets-konto <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dollarn tappar fart: USDX backar till 99,576 n\u00e4r Fed-betsen sv\u00e4nger \u2013 64,4% ser of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad r\u00e4nta i december. Mellan\u00f6sternrubriker och oljepriset h\u00e5ller marknaden nerv\u00f6s och valutorna i sidled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":38103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38104\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}