{"id":37411,"date":"2026-03-16T19:43:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/uncategorized\/mufg-analytiker-ligger-kvar-med-kort-position-i-eur-usd-och-vantar-sig-att-energidrivna-forsamringar-i-bytesforhallandet-ska-fortsatta-pressa-euron\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T19:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:43:36","slug":"mufg-analytiker-ligger-kvar-med-kort-position-i-eur-usd-och-vantar-sig-att-energidrivna-forsamringar-i-bytesforhallandet-ska-fortsatta-pressa-euron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/live-updates\/mufg-analytiker-ligger-kvar-med-kort-position-i-eur-usd-och-vantar-sig-att-energidrivna-forsamringar-i-bytesforhallandet-ska-fortsatta-pressa-euron\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG-analytiker ligger kvar med kort position i EUR\/USD och v\u00e4ntar sig att energidrivna f\u00f6rs\u00e4mringar i bytesf\u00f6rh\u00e5llandet ska forts\u00e4tta pressa euron"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG-analytiker beh\u00e5ller en kort position i EUR\/USD och kopplar eurons svaghet till h\u00f6gre oljepriser och h\u00f6gre priser p\u00e5 europeisk naturgas. Det ger Europa en st\u00f6rre negativ *terms-of-trade*-chock (s\u00e4mre bytesf\u00f6rh\u00e5llande: importen, s\u00e4rskilt energi, blir dyrare j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med exporten). De uppskattar att f\u00f6r varje 10-procentig uppg\u00e5ng i r\u00e5olja faller EUR\/USD ungef\u00e4r 0,7 %.\n\nDe s\u00e4ger att EUR\/USD har fallit 3,0\u20133,5 % sedan krisen b\u00f6rjade, vilket de kopplar till att r\u00e5oljepriset stigit omkring 50 %. De noterar ocks\u00e5 att EUR\/USD har brutit ned under st\u00f6det vid 1,1500 (st\u00f6dniv\u00e5: en kursniv\u00e5 d\u00e4r priset ofta bromsar, men som kan ge vika).\n\n<h3>Scenario One Brent At Seventy Five To Eighty Five<\/h3>\nI scenario 1 antas Brent-olja ligga p\u00e5 75\u201385 dollar per fat, inklusive en tillf\u00e4llig riskpremie p\u00e5 10 dollar per fat (riskpremie: ett extra prisp\u00e5slag p\u00e5 grund av os\u00e4kerhet och st\u00f6rningsrisk). I detta utfall placeras EUR\/USD i intervallet 1,16\u20131,18.\n\nI scenario 2 beskrivs r\u00e5olja p\u00e5 110 dollar per fat som en uppg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 n\u00e4ra 60 % fr\u00e5n niv\u00e5erna f\u00f6re konflikten, vilket skulle inneb\u00e4ra EUR\/USD n\u00e4ra 1,1300. De anger ett intervall p\u00e5 1,1200\u20131,1600.\n\nI ett mer negativt scenario stiger r\u00e5oljan 100 % och europeiska naturgaspriser stiger mer \u00e4n s\u00e5. D\u00e5 s\u00e4tts EUR\/USD till 1,0700\u20131,1300, med m\u00f6jlighet att n\u00e5 1,0700.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>B\u00f6rja handla nu &#8211; Klicka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/trade-now\/\">h\u00e4r<\/a> f\u00f6r att skapa ditt riktiga VT Markets-konto <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oljechocken pressar euron: MUFG ligger kort EUR\/USD och ser h\u00f6gre olje- och gaspriser sl\u00e5 mot Europas bytesf\u00f6rh\u00e5llande. Varje 10% oljeuppg\u00e5ng s\u00e4nker paret ~0,7%. Scenarier: 1,18\u20131,07.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}