USD\/JPY remained stable as markets await further direction from the BoJ. A December interest rate increase is already anticipated by most market participants, with the currency pair last noted at 155.06.<\/p>\n
Governor Ueda commented that the BoJ can only estimate the neutral rate within a broad range and cannot determine the terminal rate. Despite an accommodative policy stance, the upcoming economic package is expected to positively influence the real economy.<\/p>\n
Market pricing currently reflects an 80% probability of a December interest rate hike. Any substantial recovery in the yen would require stronger guidance from the BoJ along with fiscal responsibility and a softer USD and US interest rate landscape.<\/p>\n
Daily momentum appears mildly bearish with the RSI slipping. Risks lean modestly to the downside, with key supports noted at 154.40 and 151.60, while resistance is identified at 156.70, 157.90, and 158.87.<\/p>\n
As of today, December 4th, 2025, the market has almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Bank of Japan later this month. We see an 80% probability, so the announcement itself is unlikely to cause a major shock in USD\/JPY. The key question for us now is what the BoJ signals for 2026, as this will determine the yen’s direction into the new year.<\/p>\n
With Japan’s national Core CPI print for October coming in at 2.9%, marking the 19th straight month above the BoJ’s target, the justification for a hike is clear. However, we must remember the lesson from the March 2024 hike; the yen actually weakened afterward because the forward guidance was not aggressive enough. Therefore, a simple bet on a stronger yen post-hike is risky, as a “one and done” message could send USD\/JPY higher.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this uncertainty around the BoJ’s future path creates an opportunity in volatility. Instead of taking a direct bet on direction, we should consider strategies like straddles or strangles on USD\/JPY options that expire in late December or January. This allows us to profit from a large move in either direction once Governor Ueda provides clarity on the 2026 policy outlook.<\/p>\n
The US side of the equation is also critical for the yen to see any meaningful recovery. The latest US JOLTS report showed job openings falling to their lowest level in three years, reinforcing market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month. A softer US dollar environment would provide a significant tailwind for a lower USD\/JPY, but it won’t be enough without a hawkish follow-through from the BoJ.<\/p>\n
From a technical standpoint, the pair sits near 155.00, with downside risk toward key support at 154.40 and then 151.60. We can use these levels to structure options plays, perhaps selling cash-secured puts below 152.00 to collect premium while positioning for a yen recovery. On the upside, significant resistance lies at 156.70 and the 2025 high of 158.87.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY holds steady as markets eye BoJ; December hike likely amid mild bearish momentum and risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}