{"id":35067,"date":"2025-11-17T15:15:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T07:15:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35067"},"modified":"2025-11-17T15:15:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T07:15:44","slug":"oil-gives-back-gains-as-russian-exports-resume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/oil-gives-back-gains-as-russian-exports-resume\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Gives Back Gains as Russian Exports Resume"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17016\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil5-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil5-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil5-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil5.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> fell <strong>0.93%<\/strong> to <strong>$59.53<\/strong>, while <strong>Brent<\/strong> dropped <strong>0.82%<\/strong> to <strong>$63.86<\/strong> per barrel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Russia\u2019s <strong>Novorossiysk<\/strong> export hub resumed loadings after a two-day halt that had briefly supported prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices retreated on Monday, erasing last week\u2019s gains as Russia\u2019s key <strong>Novorossiysk<\/strong> export terminal resumed operations following a <strong>two-day suspension<\/strong> caused by a Ukrainian drone attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Exclusive: Russia&#39;s Novorossiysk port resumes oil loadings after Ukrainian attack <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gurMF6oXkw\">https:\/\/t.co\/gurMF6oXkw<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gurMF6oXkw\">https:\/\/t.co\/gurMF6oXkw<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1990140365047791620?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 16, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At <strong>04:23 GMT<\/strong>, <strong>Brent crude futures<\/strong> traded at <strong>$63.86<\/strong>, down <strong>53 cents<\/strong>, while <strong>WTI crude futures<\/strong> slipped <strong>56 cents<\/strong> to <strong>$59.53<\/strong>. Both benchmarks had rallied over <strong>2% on Friday<\/strong>, briefly supported by the outage at Novorossiysk and the nearby <strong>Caspian Pipeline Consortium<\/strong> terminal, which together account for roughly <strong>2% of global supply<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Industry data confirmed that oil loadings at Novorossiysk restarted on Sunday, but analysts said market participants remain focused on the broader risk of infrastructure disruptions as <strong>Ukraine intensifies attacks<\/strong> on Russian refineries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kyiv\u2019s military reported strikes on <strong>Ryazan<\/strong> and <strong>Novokuibyshevsk<\/strong> refineries over the weekend, highlighting the ongoing fragility of Russia\u2019s export network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Sanctions and Supply Risks Add Volatility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the immediate easing of supply fears, traders continue to assess the long-term effects of new <strong>U.S. sanctions<\/strong> targeting <strong>Lukoil<\/strong> and <strong>Rosneft<\/strong>, which will take effect after <strong>21 November<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Trump administration extended a sanctions waiver for some Lukoil transactions as it steps up engagement with foreign governments and potential buyers over the Russian oil firm\u2019s international assets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gAh0P0vtYP\">https:\/\/t.co\/gAh0P0vtYP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1989417794576748547?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The sanctions aim to curtail Russian oil exports and pressure Moscow toward negotiations over Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. President <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong> also announced that additional measures may soon target any country doing business with Russia, while warning that <strong>Iran<\/strong> could be added to the list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> last week reaffirmed its decision to raise <strong>December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day<\/strong>, but will pause further increases in the <strong>first quarter of 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move reinforced a perception of oversupply, particularly as global production continues to outstrip demand growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil traders are not counting on OPEC+ to cut production next year, despite forecasts that a global supply surplus could send prices even lower <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fFzdtAlYLU\">https:\/\/t.co\/fFzdtAlYLU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1990286427733553520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <strong>ING<\/strong>, the oil market is expected to remain in a <strong>large surplus through 2026<\/strong>, though risks persist from geopolitical flare-ups and the recent <strong>Iranian tanker seizure<\/strong> in the <strong>Gulf of Oman<\/strong>, a route critical to 20 million barrels per day of oil shipments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WTI crude (CL-OIL-VIP)<\/strong> trades near <strong>$59.36<\/strong>, down <strong>0.69%<\/strong>, consolidating within a narrow range after peaking near <strong>$60.27<\/strong> last week. On the <strong>daily chart<\/strong>, momentum indicators remain soft, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) showing limited upward bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-11-17-at-140714-1024x453.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35072\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-11-17-at-140714-1024x453.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-11-17-at-140714-300x133.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-11-17-at-140714-768x340.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-11-17-at-140714.jpeg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> histogram is flat below zero, reflecting sluggish momentum after recent volatility. Resistance is seen at <strong>$60.80\u2013$61.20<\/strong>, while immediate support sits near <strong>$58.50<\/strong> and <strong>$57.80<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts expect <strong>WTI<\/strong> to remain range-bound around <strong>$60 per barrel<\/strong>, fluctuating within a <strong>$5 band<\/strong> as supply and geopolitical risks offset oversupply concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While drone attacks and sanctions may keep volatility elevated, OPEC+ output growth and rising U.S. rig counts\u2014up <strong>three<\/strong> to <strong>417<\/strong> last week, according to <strong>Baker Hughes<\/strong>\u2014are likely to limit upside momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained break below <strong>$58.50<\/strong> could invite further declines toward <strong>$57.00<\/strong>, while renewed disruption at Russian export facilities could lift prices back above <strong>$61.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices slipped on Monday as operations at Russia\u2019s Novorossiysk port resumed, easing immediate supply concerns after a brief suspension. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[31,12],"class_list":["post-35067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35067\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}