{"id":34749,"date":"2025-11-13T10:01:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T02:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34749"},"modified":"2025-11-13T10:01:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T02:01:28","slug":"oil-extends-losses-as-outlook-turns-bearish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/oil-extends-losses-as-outlook-turns-bearish\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Extends Losses as Outlook Turns Bearish"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil14-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17009\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil14-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil14-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil14-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/oil14.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> dropped over <strong>4%<\/strong> to <strong>$58.30<\/strong>, the lowest in three weeks, extending Wednesday\u2019s decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>OPEC<\/strong> now expects global oil production to meet demand by <strong>2026<\/strong>, citing a supply surplus in Q3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices continued to weaken on Thursday, with <strong>WTI crude futures<\/strong> trading near <strong>$58.30<\/strong> per barrel after sliding more than <strong>4%<\/strong> in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fall followed OPEC\u2019s latest assessment showing a well-supplied market through the mid-decade, a sharp reversal from its earlier deficit forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">EIA raises US oil output forecast, says oversupply will weigh on prices <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vtdv6aU5kM\">https:\/\/t.co\/vtdv6aU5kM<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vtdv6aU5kM\">https:\/\/t.co\/vtdv6aU5kM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1988771359774666977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The group noted that global supply exceeded demand in the third quarter and that production is likely to align with consumption by <strong>2026<\/strong>, dampening expectations for a tighter market next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tone was echoed by the <strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)<\/strong>, which raised its domestic production outlook for 2026, citing improved shale efficiency and higher rig utilisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong> also tempered its long-term outlook, softening its stance on peak oil demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The International Energy Agency has reintroduced a \u201cCurrent Policies Scenario\u201d in which global oil consumption keeps growing to 2050<br><br>The analysis may provide sobering reading for climate talks, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MitchellFerman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MitchellFerman<\/a> explains <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QugpTUuAAT\">https:\/\/t.co\/QugpTUuAAT<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/A91nDXH5vE\">pic.twitter.com\/A91nDXH5vE<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988635578326552657?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It now projects global consumption will continue rising until <strong>2050<\/strong>, defying earlier expectations of a plateau in the 2030s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Inventory Builds Deepen Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to the downside, data from the <strong>American Petroleum Institute (API)<\/strong> showed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/u-s-crude-stockpiles-rose-1-3m-barrels-last-week-api-says\/ar-AA1QjZeN?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels<\/a> in the week ending November 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If confirmed by official EIA figures, this would mark the second consecutive weekly build, reinforcing short-term oversupply concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders now await the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UGmp8VuZ3G\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">IEA\u2019s monthly report<\/a><\/strong> later today for fresh cues on demand growth and inventory trends. Any further downgrades to consumption forecasts could push prices lower, especially amid strengthening U.S. output and subdued refinery demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices have slumped to <strong>$58.29<\/strong>, extending a steep intraday decline from highs near <strong>$61.26<\/strong> as bearish momentum dominates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/image-15-1024x450.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34750\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/image-15-1024x450.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/image-15-300x132.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/image-15-768x337.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/11\/image-15.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 15-minute chart shows prices trending sharply below the <strong>5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages<\/strong>, with the <strong>MACD<\/strong> widening deep in negative territory, signalling sustained downside pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The structure reflects a decisive breakdown in short-term support zones, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move aligns with the broader weakness seen this week amid concerns over <strong>slowing global demand<\/strong> and renewed <strong>supply resilience from the U.S. and OPEC+ producers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With oil hovering just above key psychological support at <strong>$58<\/strong>, any further breach could open the path toward <strong>$57.50\u2013$57.00<\/strong>, levels not seen since mid-October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if prices can stabilise and reclaim <strong>$59.50<\/strong>, a corrective bounce toward <strong>$60.50<\/strong> may develop. Traders should watch for potential volatility around <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/us-labor-department-urged-prioritize-november-employment-cpi-data-post-shutdown-2025-11-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">U.S. CPI data<\/a><\/strong> and the upcoming <strong>OPEC+ commentary<\/strong>, which could determine whether this drop deepens or finds short-term footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI crude futures slid toward $58 a barrel after OPEC projected a well-supplied market through 2026 and U.S. inventories rose for a second week. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[31,12],"class_list":["post-34749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34749\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}