EUR\/USD Short-term Outlook<\/p>\n
Over 24 hours, EUR dipped to a low of 1.1504, closing at 1.1518, a 0.14% decline. Positive divergence is still noted, suggesting EUR might test 1.1490 before recovery risks increase. A sustained break below 1.1490 is unlikely, and the support at 1.1450 is not expected to be threatened. Resistance is around 1.1540, with a break above 1.1555 indicating that 1.1490 may not be reached soon.<\/p>\n
In a 1-3 week outlook, a fall below 1.1540 was anticipated. Following EUR’s drop to 1.1520, analysts stressed that 1.1490 remains a key level. This view persists, with the understanding that passing 1.1580 would mean EUR is not weakening further. Should EUR breach 1.1490, the focus will shift to 1.1450. <\/p>\n
The FXStreet Insights Team consists of journalists who compile selected market observations from experts, providing notes and insights from both commercial and internal analysts.<\/p>\n
Trading Strategy Considerations<\/p>\n
With momentum pointing towards a test of the 1.1490 level, we should consider buying near-term put options. Last week’s disappointing German manufacturing PMI data, which showed a second month of contraction at 48.5, reinforces this bearish outlook on the Euro. This strategy allows us to profit from the expected decline while limiting our initial risk.<\/p>\n
However, the positive divergence on momentum indicators signals that any drop could be short-lived and reverse sharply. This makes outright shorting of futures risky, so a bear put spread, perhaps buying a 1.1500 put and selling a 1.1450 put, would define our risk. This structure would capture profits from a moderate slide to our target zone without exposing us to a sudden snap-back rally.<\/p>\n
The dollar’s strength is also fueling this move, particularly after the strong U.S. jobs report from last Friday, November 1st, 2025, which showed a gain of 210,000 jobs against expectations of 180,000. This makes selling out-of-the-money call options with strikes above the 1.1580 resistance level an attractive way to collect premium. A significant Euro rally seems unlikely given the diverging economic data between the two regions.<\/p>\n
Implied volatility in one-month EUR\/USD options has ticked up to 7.8%, reflecting the market’s anticipation of a decisive move as we approach these critical support levels. We saw a similar pattern of weakening European data back in the third quarter of 2024, where momentum divergence preceded a final leg down before a sharp reversal. This historical context suggests that any bearish positions should be managed actively.<\/p>\n
Should EUR\/USD break below 1.1490, the focus will shift to 1.1450. The latest Eurozone flash CPI estimate for October 2025, which came in below forecast at 2.1%, gives us confidence that the European Central Bank will remain dovish. This fundamental backdrop supports further weakness in the currency pair for the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD may test 1.1490 support; analysts see recovery potential unless key levels of resistance break.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":16965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33970\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}