{"id":31392,"date":"2025-10-01T03:09:51","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T03:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31392"},"modified":"2025-10-01T03:09:51","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T03:09:51","slug":"gold-holds-high-to-mounting-u-s-shutdown-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/gold-holds-high-to-mounting-u-s-shutdown-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Holds High to Mounting U.S. Shutdown Fears"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/download-141-1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19737\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/download-141-1-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/download-141-1-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/download-141-1-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/download-141-1.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Spot gold climbed to $3,870 per ounce, within striking distance of Tuesday\u2019s record high of $3,866.10.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders see a near-certain Fed rate cut in October, with a 76% probability of another in December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices hovered near record territory at $3,870 per ounce on Wednesday, extending the strong rally driven by a weakening economic outlook and intensifying political uncertainty in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The precious metal is attempting to break higher as safe-haven flows accelerate ahead of a possible U.S. government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold held a four-day rally that pushed prices to a record, as traders braced for a possible US government shutdown that could support demand for haven assets. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/g2uEhwE28Q\">https:\/\/t.co\/g2uEhwE28Q<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1973191426503536650?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Senate gridlocked between competing funding proposals, the risk of a closure at midnight looms large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants are increasingly focused on its potential duration, as a prolonged shutdown would delay the release of critical economic data, including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Friday\u2019s non-farm payrolls report<\/a>. This comes just weeks before the Federal Reserve\u2019s late-October policy meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Labour Market Signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fresh data showed U.S. job openings edged higher in August while overall hiring slowed. This cooling in the labour market reinforces expectations that the Fed has room to continue easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said policymakers should be cautious in considering additional interest-rate reductions while inflation remains above target and the labor market relatively balanced <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ppMwC3G7h5\">https:\/\/t.co\/ppMwC3G7h5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1973166680672006613?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are now pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a> indicating a 76% chance of an additional reduction in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold (<strong>XAUUSD<\/strong>) extended its bullish run, trading at <strong>$3,866.10<\/strong>, up <strong>0.19%<\/strong> on the day, and marking fresh highs after a strong September rally. The metal continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, softer U.S. dollar momentum, and growing expectations that central banks will maintain accommodative stances into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technically, the uptrend remains firmly intact. Price is holding above the <strong>5-day and 10-day moving averages<\/strong>, with the 30-day MA providing a strong upward slope that reinforces the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/10\/image-1024x450.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/10\/image-1024x450.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/10\/image-300x132.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/10\/image-768x337.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/10\/image.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The breakout above the <strong>$3,800 level<\/strong> has unlocked further upside potential, with resistance now seen around <strong>$3,900<\/strong>, while initial support lies near <strong>$3,750<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum also supports the bullish bias. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> remains in positive territory, with the MACD line diverging further above the signal line and a widening histogram. This suggests buyers still control the market, though the sharp climb leaves gold vulnerable to short-term profit-taking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the bigger picture, as long as gold sustains above <strong>$3,750<\/strong>, the path of least resistance remains upward, with traders eyeing the symbolic <strong>$4,000 mark<\/strong> as a potential medium-term target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, any cooling in geopolitical risks or a rebound in U.S. yields could trigger consolidation before the next leg higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as the political stalemate continues and key data releases risk being delayed, gold\u2019s safe-haven appeal is likely to keep prices elevated. Momentum traders may attempt to test the $3,900 level in the near term, though any resolution in Washington could prompt a pullback towards $3,750.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The medium-term path remains tilted upward, anchored by expectations of further Fed easing and lingering global risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold prices remained close to record levels on Wednesday as political gridlock in Washington raised the risk of a government shutdown. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":19737,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-31392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-gold"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31392\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}