{"id":31372,"date":"2025-09-30T08:20:25","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T08:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31372"},"modified":"2025-09-30T08:20:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T08:20:25","slug":"nikkei225-slips-to-u-s-shutdown-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/nikkei225-slips-to-u-s-shutdown-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Nikkei225 Slips to U.S. Shutdown Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx-86-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20961\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx-86-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx-86-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx-86-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx-86.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nikkei225 closed at 44,794.65, down 279 points (0.62%) after hitting 45,053 intraday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s August factory output fell more than expected, highlighting fragile domestic momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan\u2019s Nikkei225 index eased 0.62% on Tuesday, finishing at 44,794.65 after briefly touching 45,053. The retreat followed a strong run that saw the benchmark notch repeated record highs through September, supported by global risk appetite and expectations of deeper U.S. monetary easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pullback coincided with fresh concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. Budget talks between President Trump and Democrats stalled, fuelling warnings from Vice President JD Vance that the government is \u201cheaded to a shutdown.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as October 1 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5ylttKhqyJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/5ylttKhqyJ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rmpmQKMRG3\">pic.twitter.com\/rmpmQKMRG3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1972892915140903021?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A closure would halt the release of <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jw8Wx4RIns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">September\u2019s non-farm payrolls<\/a>, leaving traders reliant on less comprehensive indicators such as the JOLTS job openings report. Analysts expect openings to hold around 7.18 million in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Domestic Pressure Points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Japanese data compounded the weaker tone, with factory output in August falling more sharply than anticipated. While exports have been resilient, domestic industrial activity is losing momentum amid a softening Chinese economy and higher input costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japan&#39;s economy shows strain as factory output and retail sales drop <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/swvcWECaZA\">https:\/\/t.co\/swvcWECaZA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/swvcWECaZA\">https:\/\/t.co\/swvcWECaZA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1972915613057024093?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The yen, meanwhile, traded near 148.46 per dollar, offering limited relief to exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market watchers suggest the Bank of Japan may face <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6PuNWBoOtq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">renewed pressure to justify its cautious stance<\/a>, particularly after two board members dissented at the last policy meeting in favour of rate hikes. The next BoJ meeting on 30 October now looms larger, especially if shutdown delays leave the Federal Reserve with reduced data visibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Nikkei 225<\/strong> slipped to <strong>44,794.65<\/strong>, down <strong>0.62%<\/strong> on the session, giving back some of the sharp gains seen in September. This pullback comes after the index tested highs near <strong>45,695<\/strong>, suggesting profit-taking may be setting in as the market digests its rapid climb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite today\u2019s decline, the overall trend remains bullish. The price is still well above the <strong>30-day moving average<\/strong>, with the <strong>5- and 10-day MAs<\/strong> supporting the rally from below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-31-1024x440.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-31-1024x440.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-31-300x129.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-31-768x330.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-31.jpeg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This shows that the uptrend structure is intact, and today\u2019s drop is more of a cooling-off than a reversal. The longer-term support zone remains near <strong>42,700<\/strong>, while immediate support is seen around <strong>44,500<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum signals are softening. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> is still above the zero line, showing bullish momentum, but the histogram is narrowing and the MACD line is converging toward the signal line. This suggests upside momentum may be slowing, leaving the index vulnerable to a deeper correction if profit-taking accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nikkei\u2019s recent surge has priced in aggressive Fed easing and resilient global liquidity. However, weaker domestic output and the risk of a U.S. shutdown delaying jobs data could temper momentum. As long as the index holds above 44,700, the broader uptrend remains intact, though traders may look for pullbacks toward 43,500 if global risk appetite fades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Japan\u2019s Nikkei225 retreated from record territory on Tuesday as U.S. shutdown risks and weaker factory output data unsettled sentiment. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":20961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[8,24],"class_list":["post-31372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-indices","tag-nikkei"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}