{"id":31215,"date":"2025-09-23T09:15:23","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T09:15:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31215"},"modified":"2025-09-23T09:15:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T09:15:23","slug":"gbp-drifts-on-weak-data-and-fiscal-jitters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/gbp-drifts-on-weak-data-and-fiscal-jitters\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP Drifts on Weak Data and Fiscal Jitters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/gbp7-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17037\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/gbp7-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/gbp7-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/gbp7-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/02\/gbp7.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>GBP\/USD trades at 1.35046, slipping 0.07% on the day, after hitting a two-week low of 1.346.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK S&amp;P Global PMI shows sharp slowdown in private-sector activity, missing expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BoE holds rates steady; markets delay next cut projection to 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The British pound slipped slightly below the $1.35 handle on Monday, following a soft patch of macroeconomic data and mounting fiscal concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At 1.35046, GBP\/USD remains just above Friday\u2019s two-week low of 1.346, with momentum subdued as traders digest the broader implications of September\u2019s disappointing PMI release and a worrying surge in public borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Pound options suggest traders are growing increasingly concerned about the UK\u2019s autumn budget, with November emerging as a focal point for bets against the currency <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0YQ8509OOq\">https:\/\/t.co\/0YQ8509OOq<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1970403437020856481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest S&amp;P <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/markets\/global-pmi-shows-sharp-july-slowdown-led-by-u-s-idUSL03846751\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Global PMI showed a sharp slowdown<\/a> in private-sector activity, with the services sector expanding at a slower pace and manufacturing continuing its contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The miss against market expectations rekindled concerns that the UK\u2019s economic recovery is losing traction heading into Q4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, last week\u2019s public borrowing data revealed a steeper-than-expected fiscal shortfall in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/articles\/cy85g61p4vyo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Autumn Budget<\/a> looming in November, the figures raise alarm over the government\u2019s limited fiscal headroom, especially as 30-year gilt yields hit record highs, tightening financial conditions and increasing the cost of servicing debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of England opted to leave interest rates unchanged in its latest meeting, maintaining a cautious tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bank of England kept rates unchanged and said it was slowing the pace of its quantitative tightening program and skewing sales away from long-dated gilts to minimize the impact on turbulent bond markets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gGYQdAVE0m\">https:\/\/t.co\/gGYQdAVE0m<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BBeHcMz9R9\">pic.twitter.com\/BBeHcMz9R9<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1968715390348902638?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are now pushing back their expectations for the next rate cut into 2026, a stark contrast to the US and Eurozone, where central banks have begun shifting toward easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>GBPUSD is currently trading at <strong>1.3505<\/strong>, down a modest <strong>0.07%<\/strong> on the day, showing hesitation after recent gains. The pair has been consolidating in a range after peaking at <strong>1.3789<\/strong> in July, with price action now hovering near the mid-point of that broader structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-24-1024x449.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31216\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-24-1024x449.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-24-300x132.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-24-768x337.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-24.jpeg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain relatively flat, reflecting sideways momentum, while the MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum as the signal lines converge near the zero level. This suggests that the pair may be entering a period of consolidation unless a decisive breakout occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key support is seen at <strong>1.3400<\/strong>, followed by stronger demand around <strong>1.3200<\/strong>, which has acted as a floor during past corrections. On the upside, resistance stands near <strong>1.3650<\/strong>, with a decisive push above <strong>1.3789<\/strong> required to resume the longer-term bullish trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, GBPUSD is in a neutral-to-bullish stance. Holding above 1.3400 keeps the broader uptrend intact, but a lack of momentum may see the pair trapped in range-bound trading in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With weak PMI prints and a troubling fiscal outlook, GBP\/USD may face renewed downside risk, especially if upcoming data confirms a broader economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the BoE\u2019s decision to hold rates steady and delay cuts into 2026 continues to provide underlying support, keeping the pound more stable than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, the pair may range between 1.3460 and 1.3600, depending on macroeconomic releases and shifts in sentiment. A break below 1.346 could expose 1.3300, while a rebound above 1.3600 would require stronger-than-expected growth or inflation figures to reassert bullish control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The British pound edges lower after disappointing PMI figures and surging public borrowing data reignite concerns over the UK\u2019s economic and fiscal outlook. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[7,9,17],"class_list":["post-31215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-forex","tag-pound"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31215","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31215"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31215\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}