{"id":30443,"date":"2025-09-09T07:20:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T07:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30443"},"modified":"2025-09-09T07:20:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T07:20:17","slug":"sp-500-holds-as-fed-cut-bets-drive-risk-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/analysis\/sp-500-holds-as-fed-cut-bets-drive-risk-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"S&amp;P 500 Holds as Fed Cut Bets Drive Risk Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/download-121-1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18740\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/download-121-1-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/download-121-1-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/download-121-1-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/download-121-1.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>S&amp;P 500 at 6515.40<\/strong>, up 0.15% as rally extends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Markets now price in 25bps Fed cut<\/strong>, with 11% odds of 50bps<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bond yields near 5-month lows; Nasdaq hits record<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 edged higher to <strong>6515.40<\/strong>, marking a fresh high for the year as <strong>expectations for a Fed rate cut next week<\/strong> fuelled broad risk-on sentiment across global markets. With U.S. labour data softening and inflation figures due this week, traders now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy on September 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Broadcom rally lifts Nasdaq to a record close, S&amp;P 500 also gains as hopes rise that the Fed will soon lower borrowing costs to bolster economic growth <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/m3LU50AtFz\">https:\/\/t.co\/m3LU50AtFz<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bzp00FIWQO\">pic.twitter.com\/bzp00FIWQO<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1965278999271407976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>More notably, the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XqxbS1JRm2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">odds of a larger 50-basis-point cut have jumped to 11%<\/a><\/strong>, from 0% just a week ago, following Friday\u2019s disappointing jobs data. Any downside surprise in this week\u2019s <strong>CPI and PPI readings<\/strong> could tip the scales further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Political Risk Widens Globally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are currently navigating a wave of political uncertainty that is shaking investor confidence across several major economies. In Japan, the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has triggered speculation about the direction of future economic policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japan\u2019s ruling party is set to decide when and how an upcoming leadership race will be held, after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba\u2019s resignation announcement triggered a vote to choose his successor. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FILxSrkJc2\">https:\/\/t.co\/FILxSrkJc2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1965239992969560169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>His departure, paired with the upcoming LDP leadership election in October, opens the door for a more dovish successor, which has contributed to the Nikkei surging past the 44,000 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the globe in Europe, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to lose a crucial confidence vote, potentially forcing President Macron to appoint his fifth prime minister in under two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Argentina\u2019s President Javier Milei suffered a sharp defeat in local elections, casting doubts over his reform agenda and spooking emerging market investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Argentine President Javier Milei promised self-reflection his party was punished in a provincial vote yesterday while pledging to hold fast to his signature economic policies <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Us7mN9qin5\">https:\/\/t.co\/Us7mN9qin5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1964992416747843789?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In Asia, Indonesia shocked markets by abruptly replacing its finance minister, fuelling concern over policy continuity and fiscal direction in one of the region\u2019s largest economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these political flashpoints, global markets have largely held steady, buoyed by the broader risk-on sentiment driven by anticipated U.S. monetary easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currency reactions have been relatively muted due to persistent dollar weakness, and bond markets, while initially rattled, have since stabilised. Still, with so many variables in play, the cross-border landscape remains a key wildcard for traders to monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong> is trading at <strong>6515.40<\/strong>, up +0.15%, holding firm near record territory after months of steady gains. Since bottoming at <strong>4802<\/strong> in April, the index has staged a strong and orderly rally, with prices consistently riding the 30-day moving average higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-11-1024x453.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-11-1024x453.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-11-300x133.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-11-768x340.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/09\/image-11.jpeg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators remain constructive. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> is flat but still above the zero line, reflecting consolidation rather than weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price action suggests that buyers are defending the <strong>6450\u20136480<\/strong> zone as near-term support, while resistance lies at <strong>6520\u20136550<\/strong>, where the index has struggled to break higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If bullish momentum resumes, a clean breakout above 6550 could open the way toward <strong>6600+<\/strong>. Conversely, failure to hold above 6450 may trigger a short-term correction back toward the <strong>6300<\/strong> area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the bias remains cautiously bullish, with dips continuing to attract buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains buoyant and technically strong, caution is warranted in the sessions ahead. Much of the current rally is predicated on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut possibly as early as next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports due this week will be pivotal. A significant downside surprise could solidify the case for a larger rate cut, but an upside shock might force the Fed to hold steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the path of least resistance appears upward for equities, traders should stay alert for rapid sentiment shifts and potential profit-taking near the 6520\u20136600 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P 500 hikes ahead of next week\u2019s Fed meeting, with Wall Street buoyed by rate cut expectations and a softer U.S. dollar. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":18740,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[8,23],"class_list":["post-30443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-indices","tag-sp500"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30443","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30443"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30443\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}