{"id":20123,"date":"2025-04-07T06:31:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T06:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=20123"},"modified":"2025-04-07T06:31:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T06:31:50","slug":"week-ahead-trump-shakes-down-fed-for-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-trump-shakes-down-fed-for-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Trump Shakes Down Fed for Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx_-2025-03-20T100227.317-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20131\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx_-2025-03-20T100227.317-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx_-2025-03-20T100227.317-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx_-2025-03-20T100227.317-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image_fx_-2025-03-20T100227.317.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets don\u2019t like surprises, and <strong>last week brought a big one<\/strong>. U.S. President <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/trump-says-perfect-time-fed-cut-interest-rates-2025-04-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Donald Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates<\/a><\/strong>\u2014loudly and publicly\u2014just as his own <strong>tariff policy stirred fresh concerns about inflation and global growth<\/strong>. The timing was no accident. With prices for <strong>energy, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FICul4znog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">eggs (down 69%)<\/a><\/strong>, and general inflation trending lower over the past two months, Trump is arguing that now is the moment for <strong>Chair Jerome Powell to act<\/strong>. According to him, <strong>jobs are up<\/strong>, the economy\u2019s on solid ground, and the Fed has a clear opening to lower rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump calls tariffs &#39;a very beautiful thing&#39; as markets continue collapse after &#39;Liberation Day&#39; shock <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bltKS5L7Hu\">https:\/\/t.co\/bltKS5L7Hu<\/a> by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MylesUdland?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MylesUdland<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1909054619973492754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That message landed in an already anxious environment. The market, still digesting the impact of <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lc1CZl99HD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">new tariffs announced on Wednesday<\/a><\/strong>, quickly shifted its outlook. Just a week ago, traders only gave an <strong>18.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in May<\/strong>. Now, that number has jumped to <strong>over 30%<\/strong>. But the real shift is in <strong>June<\/strong>: markets now price in a <strong>94.5% chance of a cut<\/strong>, with more expected in <strong>July, September, and even December<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks a <strong>fast reversal<\/strong>. Before the tariff headlines, most expected the first move in <strong>July at the earliest<\/strong>. Now the market is betting the Fed may move <strong>sooner\u2014and keep going<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s pressure on Powell is nothing new, but it\u2019s resurfacing at a time when traders are already on edge. The new tariffs sparked fears that <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">consumer prices could rise again<\/a><\/strong> and <strong>global trade could take another hit<\/strong>. On Wednesday, Powell addressed those concerns head-on. Speaking in Virginia, he acknowledged the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/feds-powell-weigh-amid-tariff-fray-market-drop-2025-04-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">tariffs could boost inflation and slow growth<\/a><\/strong>, but he urged <strong>caution<\/strong>. The Fed, he said, <strong>needs more clarity before it adjusts policy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That puts <strong>Powell and the market on different pages<\/strong>. While the Fed wants to <strong>wait and watch the data<\/strong>, the market is already leaning hard into a <strong>rate-cut narrative<\/strong>. Traders are trying to get ahead of what they believe is inevitable. It\u2019s a <strong>classic tug-of-war<\/strong>: one side driven by caution, the other by anticipation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn\u2019t the first time this kind of split has happened. In <strong>2019<\/strong>, the market saw trade tensions brewing and began pricing in rate cuts before the Fed acted. Eventually, the Fed gave in. But in <strong>2023<\/strong>, after the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/what-happened-to-silicon-valley-bank-7368676\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">collapse of SVB<\/a><\/strong> and others rattled the banking sector, traders again expected rate cuts. The <strong>Fed stayed put<\/strong>, focused on inflation, and was proven right. That back-and-forth is <strong>fresh in everyone\u2019s minds now<\/strong>. So the big question is\u2014<strong>who\u2019s reading the moment better this time?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The answer depends on how the next round of data plays out. If <strong>inflation cools further<\/strong>\u2014especially in sticky categories like <strong>services and housing<\/strong>\u2014and if <strong>growth shows signs of fading<\/strong>, the Fed may pivot. But if <strong>price pressures stick around<\/strong>, even at these lower levels, Powell could hold the line. That would leave the market <strong>out over its skis once again<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Movements This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While broader narratives around inflation, tariffs, and Fed policy dominate headlines, the week\u2019s price action reveals how traders are tactically positioning themselves in the near term. We\u2019ve seen a decisive break in momentum across multiple markets, with several major assets testing key structural levels\u2014some confirming trends, others hinting at possible reversals. As we step through this week\u2019s movements, we\u2019re prioritizing structure over noise and watching for consolidation zones that could shape the next directional leg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20128\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12-1024x548.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12-1536x822.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-12.png 1722w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> climbed from its monitored <strong>101.00<\/strong> area and is now approaching <strong>103.80<\/strong>, a resistance level that could either cap the rally or, if broken, confirm a new bullish leg. However, a failure to reach 103.80 followed by an impulsive downturn would turn our focus back toward <strong>100.20<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EURUSD<\/strong> sold off from the <strong>1.1150<\/strong> zone. If price continues to weaken, <strong>1.0850<\/strong> becomes the next area to watch. However, if the pair stabilizes and bounces without even testing that lower level, eyes turn back to <strong>1.1220<\/strong>\u2014a resistance level that could define the upper boundary of the current range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GBPUSD<\/strong> has drifted lower but notably did <strong>not first test the 1.3250<\/strong> monitored area, making this decline less structurally clean. Now, we\u2019re watching the <strong>1.2820 to 1.2780<\/strong> region for potential reaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11-1024x552.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20127\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11-1024x552.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11-768x414.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11-1536x828.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-11.png 1721w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In yen pairs, <strong>USDJPY<\/strong> broke below the <strong>145.91 swing low<\/strong> and bounced from the <strong>144.50<\/strong> zone. That level may mark a tentative bottom, but confirmation is lacking. A consolidation around <strong>149.90<\/strong> would offer clearer signals on whether sellers are taking profits or preparing for another leg down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, <strong>USDCHF<\/strong> bounced from <strong>0.8460<\/strong>, but whether this is the low remains to be seen. We\u2019re watching <strong>0.8760<\/strong> as a key test area if price begins to consolidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AUDUSD<\/strong> came under pressure after testing <strong>0.6380<\/strong>, with sellers stepping in. If the pair consolidates further, we\u2019ll look to <strong>0.6200<\/strong> as a zone for bearish continuation patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NZDUSD<\/strong> dropped from the <strong>0.5870<\/strong> level. If it retraces higher, the <strong>0.5700<\/strong> zone may act as resistance. The RBNZ\u2019s rate decision midweek could bring further volatility to this pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>USDCAD<\/strong> bounced off <strong>1.4030<\/strong>, but hasn\u2019t confirmed strength. The next level of interest sits at <strong>1.4110<\/strong>, assuming the pair consolidates and holds its gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20126\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10-1536x823.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-10.png 1724w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The commodities complex mirrored broader risk-off sentiment. <strong>USOil<\/strong> broke below the <strong>63.764<\/strong> support and remains heavy. Should trade tensions escalate, <strong>$53.00<\/strong> could come into play. For now, we\u2019re watching for bearish setups around <strong>$66.90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold<\/strong> extended its decline on Friday. If it pauses to consolidate, the <strong>$3090<\/strong> level becomes a key test area for sellers to re-engage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20125\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9-1536x824.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-9.png 1721w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>SP500<\/strong> took a more dramatic turn, breaking down below the <strong>5093.65 swing low<\/strong> and officially entering a <strong>technical bear market<\/strong>\u2014a <strong>21.90% decline<\/strong> from recent highs. Historically, we\u2019ve only seen <strong>three bear markets in the past five years<\/strong>, one of which coincided with a recession. This context underscores the risk of further downside, though past cycles have also shown that sharp declines can precede equally sharp recoveries. We\u2019re staying cautious and tracking structure closely to determine if this is exhaustion or the start of deeper capitulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20124\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8-1024x553.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8-768x415.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8-1536x830.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/04\/image-8.png 1722w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> remains under pressure as well. If it consolidates near current levels, the <strong>$83,050<\/strong> area becomes a zone to watch for renewed selling. A deeper breakdown could bring price into the <strong>$74,000<\/strong> region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, <strong>Natural Gas (NatGas)<\/strong> attempted to rally but failed, trading lower into a vulnerable structure. If price consolidates, we\u2019re watching for bearish setups near <strong>$4.03<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the board, this week\u2019s movements tell a story of retreat, repricing, and caution. Until volatility cools and fundamental clarity returns\u2014especially around inflation and central bank policy\u2014price action will remain sensitive, and risk appetite limited. We continue to focus on levels that offer structure and confirmation rather than prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Events This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week may look quiet on the surface, but it\u2019s carrying more weight than the calendar suggests. With markets already on edge and sentiment vulnerable, even low-volume data can trigger meaningful shifts in direction. We\u2019re tracking a handful of releases that could either validate current pricing or force another wave of repricing across risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest focus is Thursday\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\">U.S. CPI print<\/a><\/strong>, forecasted at <strong>2.60% year-over-year<\/strong>, down from the previous <strong>2.80%<\/strong>. A soft reading here would give markets permission to continue leaning into the rate cut narrative\u2014particularly after last week\u2019s shift in Fed futures. But any upside surprise, even marginal, could reset expectations quickly. With the Fed holding its ground and inflation still above target, a hot CPI print would reignite policy concerns and likely add fuel to the current equity drawdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahead of that, we\u2019ll be watching Wednesday\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/rbnz-cut-rates-by-25bps-economists-say-more-cuts-possible-after-us-tariffs-2025-04-07\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">RBNZ rate decision<\/a><\/strong>, where the forecast calls for a cut to <strong>3.50% from 3.75%<\/strong>. The New Zealand dollar has already been trading lower from the 0.5870 level, and a confirmed cut could press it further toward 0.5700. While not a global bellwether, the RBNZ\u2019s decision may be seen as a test case for how central banks in smaller, export-dependent economies are navigating weakening demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday brings two more readings worth attention: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ppi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. PPI m\/m,<\/a><\/strong> forecasted at <strong>0.20%<\/strong> (up from 0.00%), and <strong>UK GDP m\/m<\/strong>, expected to shift from <strong>-0.10% to +0.10%<\/strong>. These aren\u2019t headline drivers on their own, but taken together, they\u2019ll contribute to the larger inflation and growth narrative. If the PPI moves higher, it may undercut the softer CPI hopes and revive concerns about upstream pricing pressures. Meanwhile, any growth beat out of the UK could offer brief support to GBP, especially as it hovers near the 1.2820 zone\u2014but the broader trend remains fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re approaching these events with a cautious stance. None of them alone will likely dictate policy, but together, they build the data mosaic the Fed and other central banks rely on. In a week without much on the surface, it\u2019s what lies beneath the numbers that may matter most.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump is pushing for a Fed cut following his tariff bombshell. Traders await the U.S. CPI report, RBNZ rate decision, and key growth data. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":20131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-20123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20123\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}