{"id":17969,"date":"2025-03-10T06:07:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T06:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17969"},"modified":"2025-03-10T06:07:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T06:07:27","slug":"week-ahead-trumps-tariff-hold-em","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-trumps-tariff-hold-em\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Trump&#8217;s Tariff Hold &#8216;Em"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-10T140548.294-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17980\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-10T140548.294-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-10T140548.294-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-10T140548.294-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-10T140548.294.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Wall Street gets nervous when former President Trump talks tariffs\u2014and lately, it&#8217;s been downright jittery. In just two weeks, Trump&#8217;s announcement about potential tariffs on Canada <strong>wiped 7% off the S&amp;P 500 <\/strong>and <strong>hit the NASDAQ even harder<\/strong>, dragging it <strong>down by 10%<\/strong>. But traders might be catching on: This <strong>looks a lot like his old playbook<\/strong>\u2014<strong>make threats, scare the market, then back down when he gets what he wants<\/strong>. Is this just another round of <strong>high-stakes bargaining<\/strong>? Traders seem to think so, at least for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bond traders are signaling an increasing risk that the US economy will stall as President Donald Trump\u2019s chaotic tariff rollouts and federal-workforce cuts threaten to further restrain the pace of growth <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AaErDdGaon\">https:\/\/t.co\/AaErDdGaon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1898738673899696307?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>When tariffs enter the conversation, traders worry about <strong>retaliation from other countries<\/strong>. That could mean <strong>higher costs on goods<\/strong> Americans buy every day. Higher prices typically lead to consumers tightening their wallets, which can slow economic growth. With trade volumes so high, a full-blown tariff war could hit the U.S. economy pretty hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But <strong>Trump\u2019s latest moves <\/strong>suggest he&#8217;s more interested in <strong>negotiations <\/strong>than an actual trade war. After initially threatening tariffs, <strong>Trump quickly softened his stance<\/strong>. On March 5, he <strong>exempted critical sectors<\/strong>, removing <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DjrTXNcCdJ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">half of Mexican imports and about 38% of Canadian goods<\/a><\/strong> from the tariff list. Then, just one day later, he reduced tariffs even more. Automakers, for instance, got a one-month reprieve before facing the full 25% tariff. The pattern feels familiar\u2014strong initial threats followed by careful adjustments to keep negotiating partners off balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Same Game, Different Time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2018\/03\/22\/politics\/donald-trump-china-tariffs-trade-war\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">We\u2019ve seen Trump use this tactic before<\/a><\/strong>, especially with China during his presidency. He starts negotiations by escalating tensions, waits for the market to get nervous, then backs off just enough to strike a deal that he prefers. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1REisFNARc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Traders might be catching onto the pattern<\/a><\/strong>, causing recent panic to ease slightly. Stocks have bounced back a bit as traders realize <strong>tariffs might be a bargaining chip rather than a permanent policy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But tariffs might be just one part of Trump&#8217;s bigger strategy. By creating market uncertainty, he could be <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CiYEt4stNA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">nudging the Federal Reserve<\/a> toward cutting interest rates<\/strong>. Trump often measures success by <strong>stock market performance<\/strong>. A weak stock market can put pressure on the Fed to act, and historically, interest rate cuts have helped markets bounce back strongly. In fact, after rate cuts, the S&amp;P 500 has historically gained about 16% within a year and nearly doubled (up around 97%) within five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, the current tariff talk might really be <strong>about getting the Fed to ease monetary policy<\/strong>. Lower interest rates mean <strong>cheaper borrowing costs<\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IPInrgiaqA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">more investments<\/a><\/strong>, and eventually <strong>higher stock prices<\/strong>. Traders seem cautiously aware of this game\u2014expecting some turbulence now, but eyeing the possibility of gains down the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, even though markets relaxed slightly after Trump\u2019s latest pullbacks, deeper economic concerns haven\u2019t vanished. High interest rates limit how much new money can be borrowed, which means the <strong>economy can&#8217;t easily rely on fresh debt to stimulate growth<\/strong>. That\u2019s why traders should remain cautious. Trump\u2019s tariffs and Fed reactions will continue driving volatility. Keeping an eye on both trade negotiations and central bank decisions will be key, as both will shape where the market heads next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Movements This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\">USD Index (USDX)<\/a><\/strong> moved lower, finding some support around <strong>103.45<\/strong>. Although prices bounced slightly, we&#8217;re still watching key resistance at <strong>104.90 <\/strong>and <strong>105.60<\/strong>, looking for bearish signals before confirming any new direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17971\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3-1536x824.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-3.png 1722w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EURUSD <\/strong>saw <strong>downward pressure<\/strong> after approaching the <strong>1.0890 <\/strong>area, ending the week on a <strong>bearish note<\/strong>. We&#8217;re now <strong>eyeing potential bullish action<\/strong> around the <strong>1.0695 <\/strong>and <strong>1.0610 <\/strong>levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GBPUSD <\/strong>finished around the <strong>1.2944 <\/strong>mark and faced resistance at this level. We&#8217;re waiting to see if prices dip lower toward <strong>1.2780 or 1.2720<\/strong>, where bullish patterns could form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>USDJPY <\/strong>stabilized near <strong>146.90<\/strong>, but the price action remains inconclusive. If this pair continues downward, we&#8217;ll watch closely around the <strong>146.25 <\/strong>support zone. Similarly, <strong>USDCHF <\/strong>looks <strong>vulnerable to further declines<\/strong>, with a critical support area identified around 0.8780. Traders should wait for clear bullish signs near the 0.8710-0.8780 range before entering new trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodity pairs <strong>AUDUSD and NZDUSD <\/strong>moved higher from monitored support levels but lacked strong bullish momentum. We&#8217;re cautious here, as further confirmation is needed. Specifically, we\u2019re eyeing <strong>bullish <\/strong>activity at <strong>0.6250 <\/strong>for <strong>AUDUSD <\/strong>and around <strong>0.5650 <\/strong>for <strong>NZDUSD <\/strong>if these pairs dip again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>USDCAD retraced lower<\/strong> after testing near <strong>1.4425<\/strong>, just below our targeted <strong>1.4450 <\/strong>resistance. If the price moves back upward, bearish patterns at <strong>1.4450 <\/strong>could set up new trade entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the commodity markets, <strong>USOil rallied mildly <\/strong>after briefly breaking below <strong>65.508<\/strong>. However, the current momentum isn&#8217;t strong enough to suggest sustained buying, making the <strong>69.85 area a critical spot<\/strong> for possible bearish entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4-1024x551.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17972\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4-1024x551.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4-768x413.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4-1536x826.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-4.png 1714w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/\">Gold <\/a><\/strong>prices are currently stuck in consolidation. We&#8217;re paying close attention to the support around <strong>2890<\/strong>; a strong bounce here might trigger a fresh push towards new record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17977\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5-1536x823.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-5.png 1721w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\">SP500 <\/a><\/strong>managed to climb slightly off its lows at <strong>5675<\/strong>, but we\u2019re cautious. The market\u2019s next moves will reveal whether this uptick is a true recovery or merely a temporary pause before further volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17978\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6-1536x824.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2025\/03\/image-6.png 1725w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bitcoin <\/strong>is caught in a tight range, and we&#8217;re <strong>waiting for a clear breakout<\/strong> before taking action. If Bitcoin dips again, the <strong>74,000 <\/strong>area remains key support. Meanwhile, <strong>Natural Gas<\/strong> found buyers around <strong>4.25 <\/strong>and could extend its recovery towards 5.00 soon. If momentum strengthens further, we\u2019re watching for <strong>potential tests near 5.70<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Events This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week started off quietly, but traders shouldn\u2019t get comfortable just yet. <strong>Tuesday <\/strong>brings <strong>fresh data on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. job openings<\/a><\/strong>, with forecasts expecting an <strong>increase to 7.71 million<\/strong> from last month&#8217;s <strong>7.60 million<\/strong>. This suggests some strength in the labor market, potentially boosting the dollar early this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On <strong>Wednesday<\/strong>, traders will have their eyes glued to <strong>inflation figures<\/strong>, with the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/a><\/strong>expected to ease <strong>slightly to 0.30%<\/strong>, down from the previous 0.50%. A lower CPI reading might <strong>suggest cooling inflation pressures<\/strong>, setting up possible selling opportunities if the USD finishes its current consolidation phase. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofcanada.ca\/core-functions\/monetary-policy\/key-interest-rate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Canada\u2019s interest rate decision<\/a><\/strong> also comes <strong>Wednesday<\/strong>, expected to <strong>drop from 3.00% to 2.75%.<\/strong> Markets typically respond strongly to central bank moves, so traders should remain vigilant around this event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thursday <\/strong>will bring more U.S. economic insight with <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ppi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Producer Price Index (PPI) <\/a><\/strong>figures anticipated at <strong>0.30%, down from 0.40% <\/strong>previously. Traders will likely react based on how these numbers influence the Fed&#8217;s future rate decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On <strong>Friday<\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">UK GDP <\/a><\/strong>numbers close out the week with a <strong>modest forecasted growth<\/strong> of just 0.1%, a significant slowdown from the previous 0.4%. This could weaken the Pound, prompting traders to monitor closely for potential short-term trading opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump&#8217;s latest tariff threats unsettle markets; traders brace for volatility as negotiations and Fed reactions unfold. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17980,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-17969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/sv-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}