{"id":69214,"date":"2026-10-05T08:10:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/uncategorized\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T08:10:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:10:19","slug":"gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/analysis\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"Ouro testa US$ 4.210 ap\u00f3s payroll fraco derrubar os rendimentos dos Treasuries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-2-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69959\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pontos-chave<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Os EUA criaram apenas <strong>29 mil vagas fora do setor agr\u00edcola (NFP)<\/strong> em setembro, bem abaixo da <strong>proje\u00e7\u00e3o de 90 mil<\/strong>. O dado de agosto foi revisado para baixo, para 133 mil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>O dado fraco de emprego reduziu a chance de o Fed (banco central dos EUA) voltar a elevar os juros na reuni\u00e3o de outubro, o que deu impulso inicial ao ouro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>O ouro chegou a subir em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a <strong>US$ 4.210<\/strong>, mas n\u00e3o sustentou o movimento quando os <strong>juros dos Treasuries<\/strong> (t\u00edtulos do governo dos EUA) e o d\u00f3lar se recuperaram.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>O <strong>\u00edndice DXY<\/strong> (Dollar Index, que mede o d\u00f3lar contra uma cesta de moedas) caiu para perto de <strong>101,9<\/strong>, dando suporte extra ao ouro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Os pr\u00f3ximos gatilhos para expectativas sobre outubro s\u00e3o os dados de <strong>infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> dos EUA e falas de dirigentes do Fed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Movimento do mercado<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O d\u00f3lar caiu e os rendimentos (juros) dos Treasuries recuaram logo ap\u00f3s a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o, com o mercado aumentando a aposta de que o Fed pode manter os juros inalterados em outubro. O ouro avan\u00e7ou inicialmente em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a <strong>US$ 4.210<\/strong>, mas a alta perdeu for\u00e7a quando os juros dos t\u00edtulos se recuperaram do fundo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O ouro abriu perto de <strong>US$ 4.141,67<\/strong>, caiu rapidamente para <strong>US$ 4.124,64<\/strong> e depois se recuperou para <strong>US$ 4.149,76<\/strong>. O pre\u00e7o acelerou e passou de US$ 4.140, testando a regi\u00e3o de US$ 4.150\u2013US$ 4.155. No entanto, o ritmo come\u00e7ou a perder for\u00e7a no topo do movimento. O XAUUSD (cota\u00e7\u00e3o do ouro contra o d\u00f3lar) opera perto da sua <strong>m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 9 per\u00edodos<\/strong> (indicador que suaviza o pre\u00e7o para ajudar a ver a dire\u00e7\u00e3o no curto prazo), ap\u00f3s ter ficado brevemente acima dela. Isso sugere ganho de f\u00f4lego comprador no curt\u00edssimo prazo, mas ainda sem um rompimento claro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Por que o mercado est\u00e1 de olho<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O ouro reagiu r\u00e1pido ao relat\u00f3rio de emprego mais fraco nos EUA, com traders reduzindo apostas de novas altas de juros no curto prazo pelo Fed. Em setembro, o NFP subiu apenas 29 mil, contra expectativa de 90 mil, enquanto a taxa de desemprego foi a 4,2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O relat\u00f3rio de setembro mudou as apostas. Em vez de refor\u00e7ar o argumento para nova alta, o dado aumentou a probabilidade de o Fed <strong>pausar<\/strong> em outubro (ou seja, manter os juros como est\u00e3o). Na precifica\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado na segunda-feira, a chance de alta em outubro estava em apenas <strong>18%<\/strong>, embora a possibilidade de outra alta mais adiante no ano seguisse bem mais presente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quando a expectativa de juros cai, os rendimentos dos Treasuries tendem a recuar e diminui o \u201ccusto de oportunidade\u201d de carregar metais preciosos (isto \u00e9, o investidor deixa de ganhar juros em outro ativo). Um d\u00f3lar mais fraco tamb\u00e9m costuma ajudar. Ainda assim, a revers\u00e3o de sexta-feira mostrou que essa rela\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 autom\u00e1tica: os rendimentos se recuperaram ap\u00f3s a queda inicial do NFP, e a preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com infla\u00e7\u00e3o ainda limita at\u00e9 onde o mercado consegue descartar novas altas de juros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00edveis importantes para operar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GOLD\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">GOLD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:GOLD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\u00edvel<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Faixa<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Por que importa<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resist\u00eancia principal<\/td><td>US$ 4.210<\/td><td>Regi\u00e3o da alta p\u00f3s-NFP e m\u00e1ximo recente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resist\u00eancia psicol\u00f3gica<\/td><td>US$ 4.200<\/td><td>N\u00famero redondo relevante, costuma atrair ordens<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resist\u00eancia de curto prazo<\/td><td>US$ 4.160\u2013US$ 4.165<\/td><td>Regi\u00e3o do topo intradi\u00e1rio recente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Piv\u00f4<\/td><td>US$ 4.150<\/td><td>Regi\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o atual e refer\u00eancia de dire\u00e7\u00e3o no curto prazo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suporte<\/td><td>US$ 4.140<\/td><td>\u00c1rea de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o intradi\u00e1ria e de rompimento<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suporte-chave<\/td><td>US$ 4.125\u2013US$ 4.130<\/td><td>Regi\u00e3o da m\u00ednima do dia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suporte mais abaixo<\/td><td>US$ 4.100<\/td><td>N\u00famero redondo importante na queda<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A disputa imediata est\u00e1 em <strong>US$ 4.150<\/strong>. Sustentar acima dessa regi\u00e3o pode manter a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a US$ 4.160\u2013US$ 4.165. Um rompimento consistente dessa faixa recoloca US$ 4.200 no radar, seguido pelo pico de sexta-feira em US$ 4.210.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abaixo de US$ 4.150, o mercado pode mirar US$ 4.140 e depois a regi\u00e3o de <strong>US$ 4.125\u2013US$ 4.130<\/strong>. Uma perda firme dessa faixa enfraquece a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o e abre espa\u00e7o para o n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de US$ 4.100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cen\u00e1rios de alta e de baixa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac34ffe05ae1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Cen\u00e1rio<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Gatilho<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirma\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alta<\/td><td>Manter acima de US$ 4.150 e romper US$ 4.165<\/td><td>Ganho de for\u00e7a no pre\u00e7o e queda dos juros dos Treasuries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rompimento<\/td><td>Movimento sustentado acima de US$ 4.200<\/td><td>Pre\u00e7o se mant\u00e9m acima do n\u00famero redondo, abrindo reteste de US$ 4.210<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Corre\u00e7\u00e3o<\/td><td>Queda em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a US$ 4.140\u2013US$ 4.150<\/td><td>Compradores defendem o suporte e o pre\u00e7o volta acima da m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 9 per\u00edodos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baixa<\/td><td>Perda abaixo de US$ 4.125<\/td><td>Alta dos juros, d\u00f3lar mais forte ou aumento de apostas em postura mais dura do Fed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baixa mais forte<\/td><td>Movimento sustentado abaixo de US$ 4.100<\/td><td>Quebra da estrutura de curto prazo<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No cen\u00e1rio de alta, o ouro pode estender a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o se os compradores mantiverem o controle acima de <strong>US$ 4.150<\/strong> e o pre\u00e7o romper <strong>US$ 4.160\u2013US$ 4.165<\/strong>. Um avan\u00e7o consistente acima de <strong>US$ 4.200<\/strong> refor\u00e7a o movimento e volta a trazer o topo recente de <strong>US$ 4.210<\/strong> para o foco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No cen\u00e1rio de baixa, o ouro pode voltar a sofrer press\u00e3o se n\u00e3o conseguir sustentar <strong>US$ 4.150<\/strong> e cair abaixo de <strong>US$ 4.140<\/strong>. A perda do suporte em <strong>US$ 4.125\u2013US$ 4.130<\/strong> enfraquece a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o de curto prazo e pode expor o n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de <strong>US$ 4.100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Aviso<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Os n\u00edveis de pre\u00e7o e os cen\u00e1rios acima refletem a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do autor no momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o. N\u00e3o s\u00e3o aconselhamento financeiro nem recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o oficial da VT Markets. Fa\u00e7a sua pr\u00f3pria an\u00e1lise e controle o risco.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Previs\u00e3o do ouro: o que vem a seguir?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O NFP mais fraco reduziu o risco imediato de uma nova alta de juros do Fed em outubro, o que tende a sustentar o ouro. Por\u00e9m, a revers\u00e3o de sexta-feira indica que o metal segue sens\u00edvel a uma retomada dos juros dos Treasuries ou a um fortalecimento do d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Agora, a aten\u00e7\u00e3o vai para os pr\u00f3ximos dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA e para falas de dirigentes do Fed. Uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais baixa, junto com desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o do emprego, fortalece o argumento de pausa em outubro. J\u00e1 uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o \u201cteimosa\u201d (que demora a ceder), principalmente com coment\u00e1rios mais duros do Fed, pode manter os juros elevados e dificultar um movimento sustentado acima de <strong>US$ 4.200<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Negocie ouro com a VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Os <strong>CFDs<\/strong> (contratos por diferen\u00e7a: um derivativo em que voc\u00ea ganha ou perde pela varia\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o, sem comprar o ativo f\u00edsico) de XAUUSD permitem acompanhar as oscila\u00e7\u00f5es do ouro sem possuir ouro f\u00edsico. O ouro costuma ser analisado junto com o d\u00f3lar, os juros, as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o e eventos geopol\u00edticos. Tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 comum acompanhar o <strong>USDX\/DXY<\/strong> (Dollar Index, que mede a for\u00e7a do d\u00f3lar frente a uma cesta de moedas). Como o ouro \u00e9 cotado em d\u00f3lar, mudan\u00e7as na for\u00e7a da moeda podem influenciar a demanda e o pre\u00e7o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Acompanhe o XAUUSD junto com o USDX, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forex<\/a> (mercado de c\u00e2mbio), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00edndices<\/a> e <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">outros mercados globais de CFDs<\/a> na VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Explore todos os produtos de ouro na VT Markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Por que o ouro subiu ap\u00f3s o NFP dos EUA?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O ouro subiu no in\u00edcio porque a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de vagas em setembro veio bem abaixo do esperado. Com isso, diminuiu a chance de nova alta de juros do Fed em outubro, o que derrubou no primeiro momento os rendimentos dos Treasuries e o d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Qu\u00e3o fraco foi o NFP de setembro?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O NFP dos EUA subiu <strong>29 mil<\/strong>, contra expectativa de cerca de <strong>90 mil<\/strong>. A taxa de desemprego tamb\u00e9m avan\u00e7ou para <strong>4,2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Por que o ouro recuou ap\u00f3s bater US$ 4.210?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A rea\u00e7\u00e3o inicial p\u00f3s-NFP perdeu for\u00e7a quando os rendimentos dos Treasuries se recuperaram e o mercado manteve no radar a possibilidade de o Fed voltar a apertar a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria mais adiante no ano. Com isso, o ouro devolveu parte dos ganhos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>O que pode mexer com o ouro agora?<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Comece a negociar agora \u2014 clique <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/trade-now\/\">aqui<\/a> para criar a sua conta real da VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surpresa no payroll: EUA criam s\u00f3 29 mil vagas e enfraquecem aposta de alta do Fed em outubro. Ouro ensaia rali at\u00e9 US$ 4.210, mas perde f\u00f4lego com DXY e Treasuries reagindo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69213,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Surpresa no payroll: EUA criam s\u00f3 29 mil vagas e enfraquecem aposta de alta do Fed em outubro. 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