{"id":22322,"date":"2025-08-13T00:35:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T00:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt\/uncategorized\/morgan-stanley-identifica-tres-riscos-que-podem-interromper-o-impulso-de-alta-do-mercado-de-acoes-apesar-das-recentes-maximas\/"},"modified":"2025-08-13T00:35:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T00:35:14","slug":"morgan-stanley-identifica-tres-riscos-que-podem-interromper-o-impulso-de-alta-do-mercado-de-acoes-apesar-das-recentes-maximas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/live-updates\/morgan-stanley-identifica-tres-riscos-que-podem-interromper-o-impulso-de-alta-do-mercado-de-acoes-apesar-das-recentes-maximas\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley identifica tr\u00eas riscos que podem interromper o impulso de alta do mercado de a\u00e7\u00f5es, apesar das recentes m\u00e1ximas."},"content":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley identifies three risks to the stock market rally. \n\nFirstly, a cooling labor market is evident, with recent jobs data showing weaker hiring than expected, downward revisions for previous months, and a decrease in job openings. This suggests a potential slowdown in economic growth.\n\nSecondly, Q2 earnings appear uneven, with strong gains concentrated in a few sectors such as technology, communication services, and finance. Many other companies are experiencing flat or modest profit growth, despite overall earnings appearing strong.\n\n

Potential For A Stagflationary Pause<\/h3>\n\nThirdly, there is a potential for a pause in economic growth and rising prices, with increasing tariffs and ongoing inflation risks threatening to weaken economic activity later this year. The current market strength may be hiding delayed economic problems.\n\nDespite these risks, the impact on the US equity rally has been minimal. The market reached another record high recently following inflation data showing figures above target and an increase in the core rate.\n\nWe are seeing a clear disconnect between underlying economic signals and market highs. The July 2025 jobs report, which showed hiring at only 150,000 against expectations of 180,000, confirms the labor market is cooling. This weakness is being overlooked, creating an opportunity for traders who expect a market correction.\n\n

The Rally’s Fragile Foundation<\/h3>\n\nThe rally’s foundation appears weak, as it relies on just a few large companies. Looking back at Q2 2025 earnings, the top ten S&P 500 companies accounted for nearly 80% of all profit growth, while the median company’s earnings were unchanged. We should consider buying protective options on equal-weight index ETFs, which would be more affected by a broad slowdown than the cap-weighted indexes.\n\nFurthermore, the threat of rising prices is increasing, with the most recent July 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing core inflation rising to 3.8%. This persistent inflation prevents the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates to support a slowing economy. Such a situation often leads to market instability.\n\nGiven this environment, we see complacency in the options market. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently trading near 13, a level reminiscent of early 2024 before market turbulence, making protective options relatively inexpensive. This suggests it is a good time to buy downside protection.\n\nTraders should look at purchasing put options on the SPY or QQQ with expirations in October and November 2025. This strategy offers an inexpensive way to hedge against the risks that the broader market is currently ignoring. For those anticipating a sharp move regardless of direction, straddles on the handful of large companies driving the market could also prove profitable.\n\n\n

Empieza a operar ahora \u2014 haz clic aqu\u00ed<\/a> para crear tu cuenta real en VT Markets.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley alerta para tr\u00eas riscos que amea\u00e7am a recente alta do mercado, incluindo um mercado de trabalho esfriando, lucros inconstantes e o risco de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o. Oportunidades para traders podem surgir. – latam.vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22322"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22322\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pt-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}