{"id":69590,"date":"2026-10-14T06:53:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T06:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T06:53:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T06:53:39","slug":"us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar ameryka\u0144ski oscyluje w pobli\u017cu 102 przed kluczow\u0105 publikacj\u0105 CPI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acf0695bdc42.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe punkty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Indeks dolara (DXY), czyli miara si\u0142y USD wobec koszyka najwa\u017cniejszych walut, 14 pa\u017adziernika handlowany jest w okolicach 102 pkt po spadku z poniedzia\u0142kowego maksimum z 18 miesi\u0119cy na poziomie 102,37.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We wtorek dolar straci\u0142 ok. 0,37%, poniewa\u017c ni\u017csze ceny ropy zmniejszy\u0142y obawy o inflacj\u0119, a oczekiwania wobec Rezerwy Federalnej (Fed \u2013 bank centralny USA) zacz\u0119\u0142y si\u0119 zmienia\u0107.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prognoza dla inflacji CPI w USA (wska\u017anik cen konsumenckich) zak\u0142ada wzrost do 3,6% r\/r we wrze\u015bniu z 3,4% r\/r wcze\u015bniej.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych USA (Treasuries \u2013 rz\u0105dowe papiery d\u0142u\u017cne) nadal wspieraj\u0105 dolara.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wy\u017cszy odczyt CPI od prognoz mo\u017ce podbi\u0107 zar\u00f3wno dolara, jak i rentowno\u015bci, a s\u0142abszy odczyt mo\u017ce ponownie uruchomi\u0107 presj\u0119 sprzeda\u017cow\u0105.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Z\u0142oto oraz pary EURUSD i USDJPY mog\u0105 wykona\u0107 wi\u0119ksze ruchy, gdy rynek przestawi pozycje po publikacji danych.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kolejnym impulsem b\u0119dzie CPI w USA (14 pa\u017adziernika), a nast\u0119pnie PPI w USA 15 pa\u017adziernika (PPI \u2013 wska\u017anik cen produkcji, czyli presji cenowej na wcze\u015bniejszym etapie ni\u017c CPI).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ruch na rynku<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wzrost dolara do <strong>18-miesi\u0119cznego szczytu 102,37<\/strong> w poniedzia\u0142ek zako\u0144czy\u0142 si\u0119 we wtorek. DXY spad\u0142 o ok. <strong>0,37%<\/strong>, bo taniej\u0105ca ropa zmniejszy\u0142a cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 obaw inflacyjnych, a oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce polityki Fed uleg\u0142y zmianie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W ostatniej sesji indeks konsoliduje si\u0119 w w\u0105skim przedziale tu\u017c poni\u017cej 102 pkt. Notowania w trakcie dnia by\u0142y niestabilne: DXY spad\u0142 w okolice <strong>101,86<\/strong>, po czym odbi\u0142 w stron\u0119 101,90. To sugeruje, \u017ce kupuj\u0105cy nadal broni\u0105 spadk\u00f3w przed wa\u017cn\u0105 publikacj\u0105 danych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego rynek to obserwuje<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uwaga rynku przenosi si\u0119 na wrze\u015bniowy odczyt CPI. Inflacja og\u00f3\u0142em (tzw. headline, czyli ca\u0142o\u015bciowy wska\u017anik CPI) ma wzrosn\u0105\u0107 do <strong>3,6% r\/r<\/strong> z 3,4% r\/r, co oznacza\u0142oby, \u017ce presja cenowa pozostaje wysoka. To kluczowy raport, bo inflacja jest g\u0142\u00f3wnym czynnikiem kszta\u0142tuj\u0105cym oczekiwania co do decyzji Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA s\u0105 jednym z filar\u00f3w si\u0142y dolara, wi\u0119c zmiana oczekiwa\u0144 inflacyjnych mo\u017ce szybko przestawi\u0107 nastroje. PPI 15 pa\u017adziernika b\u0119dzie drugim testem tej narracji inflacyjnej i mo\u017ce podtrzyma\u0107 zmienno\u015b\u0107 do czwartku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe poziomy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/PEPPERSTONE-USDX\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USDX chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"PEPPERSTONE:USDX\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Typ<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>102,37<\/td><td>Op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Poniedzia\u0142kowy szczyt z 18 miesi\u0119cy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>102<\/td><td>Punkt zwrotny \/ psychologiczny<\/td><td>Wa\u017cny okr\u0105g\u0142y poziom; powr\u00f3t powy\u017cej sprzyja kupuj\u0105cym<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>101,99<\/td><td>Op\u00f3r w trakcie sesji<\/td><td>Maksimum sesji<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>101,86<\/td><td>Wsparcie w trakcie sesji<\/td><td>Minimum sesji<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Najwa\u017cniejszym poziomem powy\u017cej jest <strong>102,37<\/strong>, czyli poniedzia\u0142kowy szczyt z 18 miesi\u0119cy. Kupuj\u0105cym nie uda\u0142o si\u0119 trwale przebi\u0107 tego \u201esufitu\u201d, po czym dolar si\u0119 cofn\u0105\u0142. Powr\u00f3t w te okolice mo\u017ce zn\u00f3w \u015bci\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 poda\u017c, a wyra\u017ane zamkni\u0119cie dnia powy\u017cej 102,37 by\u0142oby sygna\u0142em powrotu si\u0142y. Tu\u017c ni\u017cej jest <strong>102,00<\/strong>, kt\u00f3ry dzia\u0142a jak punkt zwrotny. Przy DXY w okolicach <strong>101,9<\/strong> powr\u00f3t i utrzymanie 102,00 sugerowa\u0142oby odzyskanie kontroli przez kupuj\u0105cych, natomiast kolejne odrzucenia tego poziomu zwi\u0119ksza\u0142yby ryzyko dalszych spadk\u00f3w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Poziom <strong>101,99<\/strong> to maksimum sesji i pierwszy op\u00f3r. Na dole przedzia\u0142u <strong>101,86<\/strong> jest minimum sesji i najbli\u017csze wsparcie. Je\u015bli zostanie prze\u0142amane (rynek utrzyma si\u0119 poni\u017cej), ro\u015bnie ryzyko g\u0142\u0119bszego cofni\u0119cia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze wzrostowy i spadkowy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acf0697307af.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Impuls (co musi si\u0119 sta\u0107)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potwierdzenie na wykresie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wzrostowy<\/td><td>CPI na poziomie 3,6% r\/r lub wy\u017cej, co podbija rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA i wzmacnia oczekiwania na \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u201d Fed (czyli bardziej sk\u0142onny do wysokich st\u00f3p)<\/td><td>DXY wraca powy\u017cej 102,00 i utrzymuje ten poziom, kieruj\u0105c si\u0119 w stron\u0119 102,37; zamkni\u0119cie powy\u017cej 102,37 otwiera drog\u0119 do nowych szczyt\u00f3w z ostatnich miesi\u0119cy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spadkowy<\/td><td>CPI poni\u017cej 3,6% r\/r, co obni\u017ca rentowno\u015bci i os\u0142abia zak\u0142ady na \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u201d Fed<\/td><td>DXY spada poni\u017cej 101,86 (minimum sesji) i utrzymuje si\u0119 ni\u017cej; sprzedaj\u0105cy mog\u0105 gra\u0107 na g\u0142\u0119bsze cofni\u0119cie, a z\u0142oto i EURUSD mog\u0105 zyskiwa\u0107<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aby rozwin\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 scenariusz wzrostowy, indeks musi wr\u00f3ci\u0107 powy\u017cej <strong>102,00<\/strong> i podej\u015b\u0107 do ponownego testu <strong>102,37<\/strong>. Zamkni\u0119cie dnia powy\u017cej 102,37 otworzy\u0142oby drog\u0119 do nowych szczyt\u00f3w z ostatnich miesi\u0119cy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W scenariuszu spadkowym DXY schodzi poni\u017cej <strong>101,86<\/strong> (minimum sesji), a sprzedaj\u0105cy mog\u0105 celowa\u0107 w g\u0142\u0119bsze cofni\u0119cie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Podane poziomy cenowe i scenariusze rynkowe to ocena autora na moment publikacji. Nie s\u0105 porad\u0105 inwestycyjn\u0105 ani oficjaln\u0105 rekomendacj\u0105 VT Markets. Inwestorzy powinni przeprowadzi\u0107 w\u0142asn\u0105 analiz\u0119 i ostro\u017cnie zarz\u0105dza\u0107 ryzykiem.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza dla DXY: co mo\u017ce nap\u0119dza\u0107 rynek?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Najwa\u017cniejszym czynnikiem w kr\u00f3tkim terminie b\u0119d\u0105 dane o inflacji w USA. Odczyt CPI za wrzesie\u0144 na poziomie 3,6% r\/r lub wy\u017cszym wzmocni argumenty za \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u0105\u201d polityk\u0105 Fed, co mo\u017ce podnie\u015b\u0107 rentowno\u015bci obligacji i zwi\u0119kszy\u0107 popyt na dolara. DXY zwykle reaguje na r\u00f3\u017cnice rentowno\u015bci (czyli na to, jak atrakcyjnie oprocentowane s\u0105 aktywa w USA wobec innych gospodarek), dlatego wzrost rentowno\u015bci w USA wzgl\u0119dem innych kraj\u00f3w zazwyczaj wspiera indeks. PPI dostarczy drugiego odczytu presji cenowej, wi\u0119c mocny wynik mo\u017ce przed\u0142u\u017cy\u0107 ruch rynku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z drugiej strony s\u0142abszy CPI obni\u017cy oczekiwania na podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p, mo\u017ce \u015bci\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 rentowno\u015bci w d\u00f3\u0142 i uruchomi\u0107 kolejn\u0105 fal\u0119 sprzeda\u017cy dolara. Spadek cen ropy tak\u017ce mo\u017ce ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 dolarowi, bo ta\u0144sza energia zmniejsza presj\u0119 inflacyjn\u0105 i daje Fed mniej powod\u00f3w do utrzymywania restrykcyjnej polityki. Podobnie dzia\u0142a\u0107 mog\u0105 zmiany w komunikacji Fed (wypowiedzi sugeruj\u0105ce \u0142agodniejsze podej\u015bcie).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Poza danymi z USA dolar reaguje te\u017c na ruchy walut wchodz\u0105cych w sk\u0142ad DXY. Poniewa\u017c euro ma najwi\u0119kszy udzia\u0142 w koszyku, lepsze perspektywy strefy euro lub bardziej \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u201d Europejski Bank Centralny (EBC) mog\u0105 spycha\u0107 DXY ni\u017cej, a s\u0142abo\u015b\u0107 euro lub jena zwykle dzia\u0142a w przeciwn\u0105 stron\u0119.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj DXY z VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W VT Markets inwestorzy maj\u0105 dost\u0119p do kontrakt\u00f3w CFD na waluty (CFD \u2013 instrument pochodny rozliczany na r\u00f3\u017cnicy ceny, bez posiadania aktywa) obok g\u0142\u00f3wnych par rynku FX (forex \u2013 rynek walutowy), a tak\u017ce do z\u0142ota, ropy, indeks\u00f3w, akcji, ETF-\u00f3w (fundusze notowane na gie\u0142dzie) i innych rynk\u00f3w CFD na jednej platformie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dzi\u0119ki temu mo\u017cna \u015bledzi\u0107 szersze ruchy dolara i por\u00f3wnywa\u0107 sytuacj\u0119 na USDJPY, EURUSD, XAUUSD (z\u0142oto wyceniane w USD) oraz na rynkach energii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Korzystaj z narz\u0119dzi wykresowych VT Markets, aby obserwowa\u0107 wsparcia i opory, \u015brednie krocz\u0105ce (u\u015bredniona cena z okre\u015blonego okresu, u\u017cywana do oceny trendu) oraz zachowanie ceny przy wybiciach (breakout \u2013 ruch poza wa\u017cny poziom), gdy b\u0119dzie tworzy\u0107 si\u0119 kolejny uk\u0142ad na USDX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Czym jest indeks dolara (DXY)?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DXY mierzy warto\u015b\u0107 dolara wobec koszyka g\u0142\u00f3wnych walut, m.in. euro, jena i funta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dlaczego CPI porusza dolarem?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPI pokazuje tempo wzrostu cen. Wy\u017csza inflacja zwi\u0119ksza szanse na bardziej restrykcyjn\u0105 polityk\u0119 Fed (wy\u017csze stopy), co zwykle podbija rentowno\u015bci obligacji i wspiera dolara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Co zwykle dzieje si\u0119 ze z\u0142otem, gdy CPI jest wysoki?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u0142oto cz\u0119sto jest pod presj\u0105, gdy rosn\u0105 dolar i rentowno\u015bci obligacji, a zwykle zyskuje, gdy one spadaj\u0105.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kt\u00f3re instrumenty reaguj\u0105 najsilniej?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Najbardziej bezpo\u015brednio reaguj\u0105 EURUSD i USDJPY, a tak\u017ce z\u0142oto, poniewa\u017c s\u0105 wra\u017cliwe na ruchy dolara i rentowno\u015bci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kiedy kolejna publikacja danych po CPI?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">PPI w USA zostanie opublikowany 15 pa\u017adziernika.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar cofn\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 spod 18\u2011miesi\u0119cznego szczytu, ale rynek wstrzymuje oddech: CPI USA mo\u017ce przestawi\u0107 stopy i rentowno\u015bci. Wybicie 102 otworzy drog\u0119 do 102,37; spadek poni\u017cej 101,86 wzmocni presj\u0119.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69589,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dolar cofn\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 spod 18\u2011miesi\u0119cznego szczytu, ale rynek wstrzymuje oddech: CPI USA mo\u017ce przestawi\u0107 stopy i rentowno\u015bci. 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