{"id":69492,"date":"2026-10-13T02:49:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T02:49:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/gold-struggles-below-4200-as-cpi-and-ppi-could-trigger-the-next-big-move\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T02:49:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T02:49:43","slug":"gold-struggles-below-4200-as-cpi-and-ppi-could-trigger-the-next-big-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/gold-struggles-below-4200-as-cpi-and-ppi-could-trigger-the-next-big-move\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u0142oto walczy o utrzymanie poni\u017cej 4 200 USD, a dane o CPI i PPI mog\u0105 wywo\u0142a\u0107 kolejny du\u017cy ruch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/goldrice-1-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-71062\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kluczowe informacje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Z\u0142oto (XAUUSD \u2013 cena z\u0142ota wyra\u017cona w dolarach USA) kosztuje oko\u0142o 4 155,50 USD, spada o 0,38%. Presja sprzeda\u017cy utrzymuje notowania poni\u017cej psychologicznego poziomu 4 200 USD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mocniejszy dolar oraz wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych USA nadal ci\u0105\u017c\u0105 z\u0142otu, bo zmniejszaj\u0105 popyt na metal, kt\u00f3ry nie daje bie\u017c\u0105cych odsetek (z\u0142oto nie wyp\u0142aca kuponu ani dywidendy).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ceny ropy powy\u017cej 100 USD za bary\u0142k\u0119 podbijaj\u0105 obawy o inflacj\u0119 i wzmacniaj\u0105 oczekiwania, \u017ce Rezerwa Federalna (Fed \u2013 bank centralny USA) mo\u017ce utrzyma\u0107 wysokie stopy procentowe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oczekuje si\u0119, \u017ce ameryka\u0144ski CPI (wska\u017anik cen konsumpcyjnych, czyli inflacja dla gospodarstw domowych) wzro\u015bnie we wrze\u015bniu o ok. 3,6% r\/r, co zn\u00f3w kieruje uwag\u0119 rynku na inflacj\u0119 i decyzje banku centralnego.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dane o CPI (14 pa\u017adziernika) i PPI (15 pa\u017adziernika; wska\u017anik cen producent\u00f3w, czyli inflacja na etapie wytwarzania) mog\u0105 nada\u0107 z\u0142otu kolejny kierunek: wy\u017csza inflacja zwykle pog\u0142\u0119bia spadki, a ni\u017csza mo\u017ce wesprze\u0107 odbicie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ruch na rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W poniedzia\u0142ek z\u0142oto spad\u0142o o ok. 0,6% do <strong>4 169,10 USD za uncj\u0119<\/strong>, odrabiaj\u0105c wcze\u015bniejsze wzrosty. Powodem by\u0142o umocnienie dolara i powr\u00f3t obaw o inflacj\u0119. Presja sprzeda\u017cy utrzyma\u0142a si\u0119: XAUUSD wynosi <strong>4 155,50 USD<\/strong>, czyli o <strong>15,99 USD (0,38%)<\/strong> mniej.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W ostatniej sesji z\u0142oto by\u0142o chwilowo <strong>powy\u017cej 4 160 USD<\/strong>, po czym podesz\u0142o w okolice <strong>4 168\u20134 170 USD<\/strong>. Odbicie szybko wygas\u0142o i cena spad\u0142a <strong>w kierunku 4 153 USD<\/strong>. Po zni\u017cce notowania pr\u00f3bowa\u0142y ustabilizowa\u0107 si\u0119 <strong>w rejonie 4 155\u20134 157 USD<\/strong>, ale popyt pozosta\u0142 s\u0142aby. Kr\u00f3tkoterminowa \u015brednia krocz\u0105ca (wska\u017anik techniczny wyg\u0142adzaj\u0105cy cen\u0119, aby \u0142atwiej oceni\u0107 trend) wyp\u0142aszczy\u0142a si\u0119, co sugeruje raczej uspokojenie notowa\u0144 ni\u017c potwierdzone odbicie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten uk\u0142ad pokazuje rynek, kt\u00f3ry ma problem z powrotem do wzrost\u00f3w. Inwestorzy coraz bardziej koncentruj\u0105 si\u0119 na tym, czy dane o inflacji wzmocni\u0105 dolara, czy otworz\u0105 drog\u0119 do odbicia z\u0142ota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Na co patrz\u0105 inwestorzy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dwa nadchodz\u0105ce raporty inflacyjne z USA mog\u0105 przes\u0105dzi\u0107, czy z\u0142oto b\u0119dzie dalej spada\u0107, czy zacznie odrabia\u0107 straty. <strong>CPI<\/strong> (inflacja konsumencka) ma zosta\u0107 opublikowany w \u015brod\u0119, 14 pa\u017adziernika. Rynek oczekuje, \u017ce inflacja og\u00f3\u0142em wzro\u015bnie we wrze\u015bniu do ok. <strong>3,6% r\/r<\/strong>. W czwartek, 15 pa\u017adziernika, poznamy <strong>PPI<\/strong> (inflacja producent\u00f3w), kt\u00f3ry pokazuje presj\u0119 kosztow\u0105 w firmach. Oba odczyty mog\u0105 silnie wp\u0142ywa\u0107 na wycen\u0119 z\u0142ota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Istotne s\u0105 te\u017c ceny ropy <strong>powy\u017cej 100 USD<\/strong> za bary\u0142k\u0119. Napi\u0119cia geopolityczne potrafi\u0105 zwi\u0119ksza\u0107 popyt na \u201ebezpieczn\u0105 przysta\u0144\u201d (aktywa wybierane w okresach niepewno\u015bci), ale dro\u017csza ropa mo\u017ce jednocze\u015bnie wzmacnia\u0107 oczekiwania na twardsz\u0105 polityk\u0119 pieni\u0119\u017cn\u0105, czyli d\u0142u\u017csze utrzymanie wysokich st\u00f3p. To dzia\u0142a na z\u0142oto w dw\u00f3ch kierunkach: popyt ochronny mo\u017ce by\u0107 r\u00f3wnowa\u017cony przez mocniejszego dolara i wy\u017csze rentowno\u015bci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold held a loss as the spreading conflict in the Middle East stoked fears that further energy supply disruptions could keep inflation elevated and increase the prospects for interest-rate hikes <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/C5h4OcGTMe\">https:\/\/t.co\/C5h4OcGTMe<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2109800083394863198?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe poziomy techniczne<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GOLD\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">GOLD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:GOLD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Cena<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie techniczne<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Op\u00f3r 2<\/td><td>4 230 USD<\/td><td>G\u00f3rne ograniczenie strefy odbicia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Op\u00f3r 1<\/td><td>4 200 USD<\/td><td>Psychologiczna bariera i wa\u017cny poziom dla odbicia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Najbli\u017cszy op\u00f3r<\/td><td>4 170\u20134 175 USD<\/td><td>Ostatni przedzia\u0142 waha\u0144 i mo\u017cliwa strefa poda\u017cy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aktualna cena<\/td><td>4 155,50 USD<\/td><td>Punkt odniesienia na wykresie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wsparcie 1<\/td><td>4 150 USD<\/td><td>Najbli\u017cszy poziom obrony dla kupuj\u0105cych<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wsparcie 2<\/td><td>4 100 USD<\/td><td>Kolejne wa\u017cne psychologiczne wsparcie<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trwa\u0142e zej\u015bcie poni\u017cej <strong>4 150 USD<\/strong> sugerowa\u0142oby, \u017ce przewag\u0119 wci\u0105\u017c ma strona sprzedaj\u0105ca (trend spadkowy), co mog\u0142oby otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do <strong>4 100 USD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Od strony wzrostowej z\u0142oto musia\u0142oby najpierw wr\u00f3ci\u0107 <strong>powy\u017cej 4 170\u20134 175 USD<\/strong>, a dopiero p\u00f3\u017aniej zmierzy\u0107 si\u0119 z 4 200 USD. Wyra\u017ane wybicie <strong>ponad 4 200 USD<\/strong> i poprawa impetu (si\u0142y ruchu ceny) mog\u0142yby skierowa\u0107 uwag\u0119 rynku na 4 230 USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze: wzrostowy i spadkowy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acd94e2345af.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Kluczowy impuls<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potencjalny cel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wzrostowy<\/td><td>Ni\u017cszy od prognoz odczyt CPI lub PPI os\u0142abia dolara, a z\u0142oto broni 4 150 USD i wybija powy\u017cej 4 170\u20134 175 USD.<\/td><td>4 200 USD, nast\u0119pnie 4 230 USD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spadkowy<\/td><td>Wy\u017csza od prognoz inflacja wzmacnia dolara i podnosi rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA (doch\u00f3d z obligacji mierzony jako procent), spychaj\u0105c z\u0142oto poni\u017cej 4 150 USD.<\/td><td>4 100 USD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariusz wzrostowy m\u00f3g\u0142by si\u0119 zrealizowa\u0107, je\u015bli ni\u017csza inflacja w USA ograniczy oczekiwania na dalsze zacie\u015bnianie polityki Fed (czyli utrzymywanie lub podnoszenie st\u00f3p procentowych), a z\u0142oto odzyska impet <strong>powy\u017cej 4 170\u20134 175 USD<\/strong> i podejdzie pod 4 200 USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z kolei presja spadkowa mo\u017ce si\u0119 nasili\u0107, je\u015bli CPI i PPI wypadn\u0105 powy\u017cej oczekiwa\u0144, co wesprze dolara i zepchnie XAUUSD <strong>poni\u017cej 4 150 USD w stron\u0119 4 100 USD<\/strong>. Przy bie\u017c\u0105cej cenie oko\u0142o 4 155,50 USD nadchodz\u0105ce dane mog\u0105 przes\u0105dzi\u0107, czy rynek si\u0119 uspokoi, czy spadki b\u0119d\u0105 kontynuowane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Podane poziomy cenowe oraz scenariusze rynkowe to ocena autora w chwili publikacji. Nie stanowi\u0105 porady inwestycyjnej ani oficjalnej rekomendacji VT Markets. Przed podj\u0119ciem decyzji inwestycyjnych warto wykona\u0107 w\u0142asn\u0105 analiz\u0119 i kontrolowa\u0107 ryzyko.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza dla z\u0142ota: co mo\u017ce wp\u0142ywa\u0107 na ceny?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ni\u017csze od prognoz odczyty CPI i PPI mog\u0105 wspiera\u0107 z\u0142oto, bo os\u0142abiaj\u0105 dolara i obni\u017caj\u0105 rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA, co sprzyja odbiciu XAUUSD. Wzrost napi\u0119\u0107 geopolitycznych i wi\u0119kszy popyt na \u201ebezpieczn\u0105 przysta\u0144\u201d r\u00f3wnie\u017c mog\u0105 podbija\u0107 notowania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Odwrotnie, wy\u017csza od prognoz inflacja mo\u017ce ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 z\u0142otu, bo wzmacnia oczekiwania na bardziej \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u201d Fed (nastawiony na walk\u0119 z inflacj\u0105, czyli sk\u0142onny utrzymywa\u0107 wysokie stopy). Mocniejszy dolar, rosn\u0105ce rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA oraz utrzymuj\u0105ce si\u0119 obawy inflacyjne przy ropie powy\u017cej 100 USD za bary\u0142k\u0119 mog\u0105 zwi\u0119ksza\u0107 skal\u0119 sprzeda\u017cy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj kontraktami CFD na z\u0142oto z VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u0142oto pozostaje jednym z najcz\u0119\u015bciej obserwowanych rynk\u00f3w, bo inwestorzy oceniaj\u0105 zmiany oczekiwa\u0144 inflacyjnych, perspektywy st\u00f3p procentowych oraz globalny apetyt na ryzyko (czy rynek wybiera bardziej ryzykowne aktywa, czy bezpieczniejsze).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets<\/a> mo\u017cna \u015bledzi\u0107 notowania XAUUSD wraz z USDX (indeks dolara, miara si\u0142y dolara wobec koszyka walut), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rynkiem walutowym<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">indeksami gie\u0142dowymi<\/a> oraz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/markets\/\">innymi globalnymi rynkami CFD<\/a> (CFD, czyli kontrakty na r\u00f3\u017cnic\u0119: instrument pozwalaj\u0105cy spekulowa\u0107 na zmianie ceny bez posiadania aktywa).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Platforma oferuje narz\u0119dzia do obserwowania ruch\u00f3w cen, analizy wykres\u00f3w oraz \u015bledzenia kluczowych poziom\u00f3w technicznych wraz ze zmian\u0105 sytuacji rynkowej.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zacznij handlowa\u0107 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFD na z\u0142oto<\/a> z VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego handlowa\u0107 CFD na z\u0142oto w VT Markets?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CFD na z\u0142oto pozwalaj\u0105 korzysta\u0107 ze zmian ceny metalu szlachetnego bez kupowania fizycznego z\u0142ota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taka forma daje mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 obserwowania, jak z\u0142oto reaguje na kluczowe czynniki: dane o inflacji, oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce polityki bank\u00f3w centralnych oraz wahania dolara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z VT Markets inwestorzy maj\u0105 dost\u0119p do rynku z\u0142ota oraz innych rynk\u00f3w CFD w ramach jednego rachunku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Najcz\u0119\u015bciej zadawane pytania (FAQ)<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego z\u0142oto spada poni\u017cej 4 200 USD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u0142oto jest pod presj\u0105 mocniejszego dolara, wysokich rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA oraz obaw, \u017ce utrzymuj\u0105ca si\u0119 inflacja sk\u0142oni Fed do pozostania przy restrykcyjnej polityce pieni\u0119\u017cnej (czyli wysokich stopach). Takie warunki zwykle zmniejszaj\u0105 zainteresowanie aktywami, kt\u00f3re nie daj\u0105 odsetek, jak z\u0142oto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Czy ceny z\u0142ota wzrosn\u0105 po publikacji CPI w USA?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u0142oto mo\u017ce rosn\u0105\u0107, je\u015bli CPI b\u0119dzie ni\u017cszy od oczekiwa\u0144 i doprowadzi do os\u0142abienia dolara lub spadku rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA. Je\u015bli jednak inflacja oka\u017ce si\u0119 wy\u017csza, presja sprzeda\u017cy mo\u017ce si\u0119 utrzyma\u0107, zw\u0142aszcza gdy rynek zacznie zak\u0142ada\u0107 kolejne podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kiedy zostan\u0105 opublikowane dane CPI i PPI w USA?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raport CPI za wrzesie\u0144 ma zosta\u0107 opublikowany 14 pa\u017adziernika 2026 r., a PPI \u2013 15 pa\u017adziernika 2026 r. Oba odczyty zaplanowano na godz. 8:30 czasu wschodniego w USA (ET), czyli 14:30 czasu polskiego.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Z\u0142oto cofa si\u0119 do 4 155 USD i nie wraca nad 4 200. Mocny dolar, wysokie rentowno\u015bci i ropa powy\u017cej 100 USD zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 presj\u0119. CPI\/PPI USA zdecyduj\u0105: odbicie czy spadek do 4 100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69491,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Z\u0142oto cofa si\u0119 do 4 155 USD i nie wraca nad 4 200. Mocny dolar, wysokie rentowno\u015bci i ropa powy\u017cej 100 USD zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 presj\u0119. 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