{"id":69313,"date":"2026-10-08T06:49:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T06:49:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/nikkei-225-extends-losing-streak-as-oil-prices-and-rate-concerns-weigh-on-japanese-stocks\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T06:49:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T06:49:48","slug":"nikkei-225-extends-losing-streak-as-oil-prices-and-rate-concerns-weigh-on-japanese-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/nikkei-225-extends-losing-streak-as-oil-prices-and-rate-concerns-weigh-on-japanese-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Nikkei 225 przed\u0142u\u017ca seri\u0119 spadk\u00f3w; rosn\u0105ce ceny ropy i obawy o stopy procentowe ci\u0105\u017c\u0105 japo\u0144skim akcjom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac714dbae53b.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kluczowe informacje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nikkei 225 jest blisko <strong>69 520<\/strong> (-0,23%), a indeks nie odzyskuje tempa poni\u017cej 70 000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Na nastroje wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 dro\u017csza ropa i ryzyko inflacji. Japonia jest silnie uzale\u017cniona od importu energii z Bliskiego Wschodu, co zwi\u0119ksza obawy o wyniki sp\u00f3\u0142ek.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Niepewna \u015bcie\u017cka st\u00f3p procentowych Banku Japonii dodatkowo ci\u0105\u017cy indeksowi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA (US Treasuries) oraz oczekiwania bardziej restrykcyjnej polityki Fed os\u0142abiaj\u0105 globalny apetyt na ryzyko (sk\u0142onno\u015b\u0107 inwestor\u00f3w do kupowania bardziej ryzykownych aktyw\u00f3w, np. akcji).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>W centrum uwagi jest <strong>wsparcie 69 500<\/strong>, a powr\u00f3t <strong>powy\u017cej 69 600<\/strong> m\u00f3g\u0142by poprawi\u0107 kr\u00f3tkoterminowy obraz techniczny (sygna\u0142y z wykresu).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ruch na rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nikkei 225 ponownie znalaz\u0142 si\u0119 pod presj\u0105 sprzeda\u017cy, gdy inwestorzy oceniaj\u0105 perspektywy gospodarki Japonii w warunkach rosn\u0105cych koszt\u00f3w energii, bardziej restrykcyjnej polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej (czyli wy\u017cszych st\u00f3p procentowych i dro\u017cszego pieni\u0105dza) oraz niepewno\u015bci geopolitycznej. Indeks jest obecnie w okolicach <strong>69 520,97<\/strong>, czyli o 157 punkt\u00f3w (0,23%) ni\u017cej. W trakcie sesji si\u0119gn\u0105\u0142 70 011,97 (maksimum) i spad\u0142 do 69 236,97 (minimum). Wcze\u015bniej Nikkei odbi\u0142 z rejonu 69 370, podchodz\u0105c pod 69 600, ale zabrak\u0142o si\u0142y na trwa\u0142e wybicie (utrzymanie wzrostu ponad op\u00f3r).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ostatnie notowania pokazuj\u0105, \u017ce indeks utrzymuje si\u0119 <strong>tu\u017c ponad 69 500<\/strong>, co czyni ten poziom kluczowym, najbli\u017cszym wsparciem (miejsce, gdzie popyt cz\u0119sto hamuje spadki). Spadek poni\u017cej niego m\u00f3g\u0142by otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do <strong>69 450\u201369 400<\/strong>, natomiast powr\u00f3t w stron\u0119 <strong>69 600<\/strong> sugerowa\u0142by popraw\u0119 kr\u00f3tkoterminowych nastroj\u00f3w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego inwestorzy to obserwuj\u0105<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ostatnia korekta wynika m.in. z realizacji zysk\u00f3w (sprzeda\u017cy po wcze\u015bniejszych wzrostach, aby \u201ezablokowa\u0107\u201d zarobek) na japo\u0144skich sp\u00f3\u0142kach technologicznych i p\u00f3\u0142przewodnikowych. Podczas \u015brodowej przeceny ucierpia\u0142y m.in. Advantest, Tokyo Electron i Kioxia, gdy inwestorzy ograniczali ekspozycj\u0119 po wcze\u015bniejszym rajdzie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Istotnym ryzykiem pozostaje dro\u017cej\u0105ca ropa. Brent utrzymuje si\u0119 <strong>powy\u017cej 100 USD<\/strong> za bary\u0142k\u0119 w zwi\u0105zku z zak\u0142\u00f3ceniami poda\u017cy na Bliskim Wschodzie. Japonia sprowadza oko\u0142o 94% ropy z tego regionu, przez co krajowe firmy s\u0105 wra\u017cliwe na wahania cen energii. Wy\u017csze koszty mog\u0105 obni\u017ca\u0107 mar\u017ce (zyskowno\u015b\u0107 sprzeda\u017cy), szczeg\u00f3lnie w\u015br\u00f3d producent\u00f3w, linii lotniczych i firm transportowych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japanese stocks fell for a second day, tracking a Wall Street selloff as persistently high oil prices revived inflation concerns and weighed on equities near record highs <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bb8p32PWhX\">https:\/\/t.co\/bb8p32PWhX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2108022120902959431?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dodatkow\u0105 presj\u0119 tworzy niepewna \u015bcie\u017cka st\u00f3p procentowych Banku Japonii. Bazowa inflacja konsumencka w Tokio (wska\u017anik cen po wy\u0142\u0105czeniu najbardziej zmiennych pozycji, zwykle \u017cywno\u015bci, lepiej pokazuj\u0105cy trend) przyspieszy\u0142a we wrze\u015bniu do 2,7%, co wzmacnia oczekiwania, \u017ce Bank Japonii mo\u017ce podnie\u015b\u0107 stopy. Wy\u017csze koszty finansowania (dro\u017csze kredyty) mog\u0105 ogranicza\u0107 inwestycje firm i ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 wycenom akcji. Jednocze\u015bnie wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych USA (czyli dochodowo\u015b\u0107, jakiej \u017c\u0105daj\u0105 inwestorzy) oraz oczekiwania bardziej restrykcyjnej polityki Fed os\u0142abiaj\u0105 globaln\u0105 sk\u0142onno\u015b\u0107 do ryzyka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe poziomy dla rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-NIKKEI225\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">NIKKEI225 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:NIKKEI225\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Strefa<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie techniczne<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>69 600<\/td><td>Najbli\u017cszy op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Strefa powtarzaj\u0105cych si\u0119 szczyt\u00f3w w ci\u0105gu dnia i nieudanych pr\u00f3b wzrostu<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>69 550<\/td><td>Kr\u00f3tkoterminowy op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Ostatnia strefa odbicia, gdzie tempo wzrost\u00f3w os\u0142ab\u0142o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>69 500<\/td><td>Najbli\u017csze wsparcie<\/td><td>Poziom psychologiczny (okr\u0105g\u0142a warto\u015b\u0107) i ostatnia strefa stabilizacji ceny<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>69 450<\/td><td>Drugie wsparcie<\/td><td>Strefa wcze\u015bniejszych reakcji ceny w ci\u0105gu dnia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>69 400<\/td><td>Ni\u017csze wsparcie<\/td><td>Wcze\u015bniejsza strefa odbicia i wa\u017cna \u201eokr\u0105g\u0142a\u201d warto\u015b\u0107<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nikkei 225 jest obecnie blisko <strong>69 520<\/strong>, czyli pomi\u0119dzy najbli\u017cszym wsparciem na 69 500 a oporem w okolicach 69 550. 9-okresowa \u015brednia krocz\u0105ca (u\u015bredniona cena z ostatnich 9 \u015bwiec\/okres\u00f3w, cz\u0119sto u\u017cywana do oceny trendu) sp\u0142aszczy\u0142a si\u0119 po wcze\u015bniejszym wzro\u015bcie, co sugeruje, \u017ce impet wzrostowy s\u0142abnie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trwa\u0142e wybicie <strong>powy\u017cej 69 550<\/strong> mog\u0142oby otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do kolejnego testu <strong>69 600<\/strong>. Je\u015bli jednak 69 500 nie utrzyma si\u0119 jako wsparcie, indeks mo\u017ce cofn\u0105\u0107 si\u0119 w stron\u0119 69 450, a potem 69 400.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze wzrostowe i spadkowe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac714dd49d50.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sygna\u0142<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mo\u017cliwy ruch ceny<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wybicie w g\u00f3r\u0119<\/td><td>Wybicie i utrzymanie powy\u017cej 69 550<\/td><td>Mo\u017cliwy ruch w stron\u0119 69 600, je\u015bli popyt si\u0119 wzmocni<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Odbicie popytowe<\/td><td>Odbicie od 69 500<\/td><td>Kupuj\u0105cy mog\u0105 pr\u00f3bowa\u0107 odzyska\u0107 69 550, broni\u0105c najbli\u017cszego wsparcia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wybicie w d\u00f3\u0142<\/td><td>Trwa\u0142y spadek poni\u017cej 69 500<\/td><td>Mo\u017ce otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do 69 450, a nast\u0119pnie 69 400<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rozszerzona wyprzeda\u017c<\/td><td>Spadek poni\u017cej 69 400<\/td><td>Mo\u017ce zwi\u0119kszy\u0107 presj\u0119 spadkow\u0105 w kierunku widocznego do\u0142ka w pobli\u017cu 69 370<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wariant wzrostowy wymaga\u0142by obrony 69 500 i zdecydowanego wyj\u015bcia ponad najbli\u017cszy op\u00f3r. Dodatkowym potwierdzeniem by\u0142by wi\u0119kszy wolumen (liczba zawartych transakcji, pokazuj\u0105ca zaanga\u017cowanie kupuj\u0105cych). Z kolei spadek poni\u017cej 69 500, zw\u0142aszcza przy rosn\u0105cej presji sprzeda\u017cy, mo\u017ce oznacza\u0107, \u017ce kontrol\u0119 odzyskuj\u0105 sprzedaj\u0105cy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Powy\u017csze poziomy cen i scenariusze rynkowe to ocena autora na moment publikacji. Nie stanowi\u0105 porady inwestycyjnej ani oficjalnej rekomendacji VT Markets. Przed podj\u0119ciem decyzji warto wykona\u0107 w\u0142asn\u0105 analiz\u0119 i stosowa\u0107 zasady zarz\u0105dzania ryzykiem (np. limity strat oraz wielko\u015b\u0107 pozycji).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza dla Nikkei 225: co mo\u017ce decydowa\u0107?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nikkei 225 mo\u017ce znale\u017a\u0107 si\u0119 pod dalsz\u0105 presj\u0105 spadkow\u0105, je\u015bli napi\u0119cia na Bliskim Wschodzie wzrosn\u0105, a ceny ropy b\u0119d\u0105 dalej rosn\u0105\u0107. Wy\u017csze koszty energii zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 koszty dzia\u0142alno\u015bci japo\u0144skich firm i mog\u0105 os\u0142abia\u0107 oczekiwania co do wynik\u00f3w. Negatywnie dzia\u0142a\u0107 mog\u0105 te\u017c kolejne podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p przez Bank Japonii. Utrzymuj\u0105ca si\u0119 inflacja w po\u0142\u0105czeniu z dro\u017cszym kredytem mo\u017ce zniech\u0119ca\u0107 do inwestycji i ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 rynkowi akcji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z drugiej strony Nikkei mo\u017ce odbi\u0107, je\u015bli ropa potanieje albo inflacja zacznie si\u0119 stabilizowa\u0107. Bardziej stopniowe zacie\u015bnianie polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej przez Bank Japonii mog\u0142oby poprawi\u0107 zaufanie inwestor\u00f3w. Wsparciem mo\u017ce by\u0107 te\u017c powr\u00f3t popytu na sp\u00f3\u0142ki technologiczne i p\u00f3\u0142przewodnikowe. Dobre wyniki firm lub szersza poprawa na \u015bwiatowych gie\u0142dach mog\u0142yby sk\u0142oni\u0107 inwestor\u00f3w do ponownego zwi\u0119kszania zaanga\u017cowania w Japonii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj Nikkei 225 z VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Osoby, kt\u00f3re chc\u0105 \u015bledzi\u0107 japo\u0144ski rynek akcji, mog\u0105 uzyska\u0107 dost\u0119p do kontrakt\u00f3w CFD na indeks Nikkei 225 w VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Handel kontraktami <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cfd-shares\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFD<\/a> na indeksy (CFD to instrument, kt\u00f3ry pozwala spekulowa\u0107 na wzrosty lub spadki bez kupowania akcji lub samego indeksu) umo\u017cliwia zajmowanie pozycji zar\u00f3wno na rosn\u0105cym, jak i spadaj\u0105cym rynku. Na platformach VT Markets mo\u017cna obserwowa\u0107 notowania, korzysta\u0107 z narz\u0119dzi analizy technicznej (wska\u017anik\u00f3w z wykresu) oraz zarz\u0105dza\u0107 pozycj\u0105 narz\u0119dziami kontroli ryzyka (np. zlecenia stop loss \u2013 automatyczne zamkni\u0119cie pozycji przy okre\u015blonej stracie).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego Nikkei 225 spada?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nikkei 225 jest pod presj\u0105 z powodu dro\u017cej\u0105cej ropy, obaw o poziom st\u00f3p procentowych w Japonii i USA oraz realizacji zysk\u00f3w na du\u017cych sp\u00f3\u0142kach technologicznych i p\u00f3\u0142przewodnikowych. Niepewno\u015b\u0107 geopolityczna dodatkowo os\u0142abia nastroje na \u015bwiecie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Czy Nikkei 225 mo\u017ce wr\u00f3ci\u0107 powy\u017cej 70 000?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taki scenariusz jest mo\u017cliwy, je\u015bli ceny ropy si\u0119 uspokoj\u0105, obawy o stopy procentowe os\u0142abn\u0105, a popyt na japo\u0144skie akcje wzro\u015bnie. Wcze\u015bniej indeks musia\u0142by jednak pokona\u0107 bli\u017csze opory, w tym 69 550 i 69 600.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak ceny ropy wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na Nikkei 225?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japonia w du\u017cym stopniu opiera si\u0119 na imporcie energii. Dro\u017csza ropa podnosi koszty produkcji i transportu, obni\u017ca mar\u017ce firm i mo\u017ce podbija\u0107 inflacj\u0119. To zwykle pogarsza nastawienie do japo\u0144skich akcji, cho\u0107 sp\u00f3\u0142ki powi\u0105zane z energi\u0105 mog\u0105 na tym korzysta\u0107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak Bank Japonii wp\u0142ywa na Nikkei 225?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bank Japonii oddzia\u0142uje na rynek akcji przez decyzje o stopach procentowych i komunikacj\u0119 dotycz\u0105c\u0105 polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej. Wy\u017csze stopy zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 koszty finansowania i zwykle ci\u0105\u017c\u0105 wycenom, natomiast \u0142agodniejsze nastawienie mo\u017ce wspiera\u0107 ceny akcji.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nikkei 225 utkn\u0105\u0142 pod 70 tys.: indeks kr\u0105\u017cy przy 69 520, a rynek boi si\u0119 drogiej ropy z Bliskiego Wschodu, wy\u017cszych st\u00f3p BoJ i presji Fed. Klucz: 69 500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69312,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nikkei 225 utkn\u0105\u0142 pod 70 tys.: indeks kr\u0105\u017cy przy 69 520, a rynek boi si\u0119 drogiej ropy z Bliskiego Wschodu, wy\u017cszych st\u00f3p BoJ i presji Fed. 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