{"id":69254,"date":"2026-10-07T06:54:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T06:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T06:54:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T06:54:20","slug":"silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd\/","title":{"rendered":"Srebro spada, gdy ropa odbija, a wysokie rentowno\u015bci wywieraj\u0105 presj\u0119 na XAG\/USD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac5c52d11054.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Najwa\u017cniejsze informacje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Srebro spad\u0142o w okolice <strong>60,70 USD<\/strong>, czyli o ok. <strong>1,1%<\/strong> w ostatniej sesji.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dro\u017cej\u0105ca ropa utrzymuje w centrum uwagi ryzyko wzrostu cen (inflacji), bo obawy o dostawy z Bliskiego Wschodu pozostaj\u0105 wysokie.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wysokie rentowno\u015bci ameryka\u0144skich obligacji skarbowych podnosz\u0105 \u201ekoszt alternatywny\u201d trzymania metali szlachetnych, kt\u00f3re nie wyp\u0142acaj\u0105 odsetek (czyli nie daj\u0105 bie\u017c\u0105cego dochodu).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>S\u0142aby przyrost zatrudnienia we wrze\u015bniu obni\u017cy\u0142 oczekiwania na kolejn\u0105 podwy\u017ck\u0119 st\u00f3p procentowych Fed w pa\u017adzierniku.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kolejnym wa\u017cnym impulsem b\u0119d\u0105 protoko\u0142y z ostatniego posiedzenia Fed (zapis dyskusji), bo wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce st\u00f3p i na dolara.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ruch na rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">XAGUSD (kurs srebra wyra\u017cony w dolarze) jest w okolicach <strong>60,697<\/strong>, po spadku z dziennego maksimum <strong>61,491<\/strong>. Dzienne minimum to <strong>60,677<\/strong>, co oznacza, \u017ce srebro jest blisko dolnego ograniczenia dziennego przedzia\u0142u waha\u0144.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Srebro pocz\u0105tkowo ros\u0142o w kierunku strefy <strong>60,95\u201361,00<\/strong>, ale potem impet os\u0142ab\u0142 i trend si\u0119 odwr\u00f3ci\u0142. Kurs zacz\u0105\u0142 tworzy\u0107 sekwencj\u0119 coraz ni\u017cszych wierzcho\u0142k\u00f3w i coraz ni\u017cszych do\u0142k\u00f3w, a sprzeda\u017c przyspieszy\u0142a po zej\u015bciu poni\u017cej <strong>60,85<\/strong>. P\u00f3\u017aniejsze pr\u00f3by odbicia w stron\u0119 <strong>60,80<\/strong> by\u0142y szybko gaszone i notowania zesz\u0142y w okolice <strong>60,70<\/strong>. Kr\u00f3tkoterminowy uk\u0142ad pozostaje s\u0142aby, cho\u0107 ostatnie \u015bwiece wskazuj\u0105, \u017ce presja poda\u017cy stabilizuje si\u0119 przy <strong>60,68\u201360,70<\/strong> \u2014 to najbli\u017cszy test dla sprzedaj\u0105cych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego rynek na to patrzy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na srebro wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 jednocze\u015bnie s\u0142absze oczekiwania na szybkie dalsze podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p w USA oraz ponowna presja inflacyjna ze strony energii. W USA wzrost zatrudnienia wyhamowa\u0142 we wrze\u015bniu \u2014 przyby\u0142o tylko <strong>29 tys. miejsc pracy<\/strong>, a wcze\u015bniejsze odczyty skorygowano w d\u00f3\u0142. To zmniejszy\u0142o szanse, \u017ce Fed podniesie stopy na pa\u017adziernikowym posiedzeniu. Rynek wycenia dzi\u015b prawdopodobie\u0144stwo pa\u017adziernikowej podwy\u017cki na ok. 16%, wobec 70% tydzie\u0144 temu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Normalnie by\u0142by to argument wspieraj\u0105cy metale szlachetne, ale wysokie rentowno\u015bci i dro\u017cej\u0105ca ropa sprawiaj\u0105, \u017ce srebro wygl\u0105da mniej atrakcyjnie. Rentowno\u015b\u0107 10-letnich obligacji USA (czyli rynkowa stopa zwrotu z tych papier\u00f3w) wci\u0105\u017c jest wysoka \u2014 ok. <strong>5,3%<\/strong> \u2014 a ceny ropy ponownie mocno wzros\u0142y przez obawy o dostawy z Bliskiego Wschodu. Brent przebi\u0142 <strong>101 USD za bary\u0142k\u0119<\/strong>, co podbija ryzyko utrwalenia wysokiej inflacji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kolejnym impulsem b\u0119d\u0105 <strong>protoko\u0142y z wrze\u015bniowego posiedzenia Fed<\/strong> (szczeg\u00f3\u0142owy zapis dyskusji). Rynek b\u0119dzie szuka\u0142 sygna\u0142\u00f3w, jak decydenci oceniaj\u0105 inflacj\u0119 i czy dopuszczaj\u0105 jeszcze zaostrzenie polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej w tym roku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe poziomy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/SILVER\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">SILVER chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\"> by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:SILVER\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Strefa<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie techniczne<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>61<\/td><td>Silny op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Poziom psychologiczny i okolice wcze\u015bniejszego dziennego szczytu<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,9<\/td><td>Op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Strefa, w kt\u00f3rej wcze\u015bniejsze odbicie zacz\u0119\u0142o traci\u0107 impet<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,8<\/td><td>Najbli\u017cszy punkt zwrotny<\/td><td>Ostatnia konsolidacja (ruch w bok) i miejsce wielokrotnych odrzuce\u0144<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,7<\/td><td>Najbli\u017csze wsparcie<\/td><td>Obecny obszar handlu i kr\u00f3tkoterminowy poziom psychologiczny<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,677<\/td><td>Dzienne minimum<\/td><td>Najni\u017csza cena w bie\u017c\u0105cej sesji<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,6<\/td><td>Ni\u017csze wsparcie<\/td><td>Kolejna strefa spadk\u00f3w, je\u015bli p\u0119knie dzienne minimum<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Najbli\u017csza \u201ebitwa techniczna\u201d toczy si\u0119 przy <strong>60,70<\/strong>. Utrzymanie powy\u017cej tego poziomu mo\u017ce pozwoli\u0107 na stabilizacj\u0119 i pr\u00f3b\u0119 powrotu w stron\u0119 <strong>60,80<\/strong>. Trwa\u0142e zej\u015bcie poni\u017cej dziennego minimum <strong>60,677<\/strong> by\u0142oby sygna\u0142em dalszego pogorszenia kr\u00f3tkiego terminu i mog\u0142oby otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do <strong>60,60<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Od g\u00f3ry pierwszym poziomem, kt\u00f3ry kupuj\u0105cy musz\u0105 odzyska\u0107, jest <strong>60,80<\/strong>. Silniejszy ruch powy\u017cej <strong>60,90<\/strong> os\u0142abi\u0142by obecn\u0105 sekwencj\u0119 spadkow\u0105 i ponownie skierowa\u0142 uwag\u0119 na test <strong>61,00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze wzrostowy i spadkowy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac5c52e8e9af.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sygna\u0142 startowy<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potwierdzenie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wzrostowy<\/td><td>Wybicie powy\u017cej 60,80<\/td><td>Kurs wraca ponad 9-okresow\u0105 \u015bredni\u0105 krocz\u0105c\u0105 (u\u015bredniony kurs z ostatnich 9 \u015bwiec) i tworzy wy\u017csze kr\u00f3tkoterminowe szczyty<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Odbicie<\/td><td>Utrzymanie powy\u017cej 60,70<\/td><td>Kupuj\u0105cy broni\u0105 wsparcia, a kurs zaczyna porusza\u0107 si\u0119 w w\u0105skim przedziale powy\u017cej dziennego minimum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spadkowy<\/td><td>Spadek poni\u017cej 60,677<\/td><td>Presja sprzeda\u017cy ro\u015bnie, a kurs pozostaje poni\u017cej spadaj\u0105cej \u015bredniej krocz\u0105cej<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wariant wzrostowy wymaga czego\u015b wi\u0119cej ni\u017c utrzymania okolic <strong>60,70<\/strong>. Kupuj\u0105cy musieliby odzyska\u0107 <strong>60,80<\/strong> i wyprowadzi\u0107 kurs powy\u017cej kr\u00f3tkoterminowej \u015bredniej krocz\u0105cej, aby wyra\u017anie poprawi\u0107 impet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariusz spadkowy jest na razie bardziej sp\u00f3jny z wykresem. Srebro jest poni\u017cej 9-okresowej \u015bredniej krocz\u0105cej, a kolejne odbicia ko\u0144cz\u0105 si\u0119 coraz ni\u017cej. Spadek poni\u017cej <strong>60,677<\/strong> mo\u017ce wyd\u0142u\u017cy\u0107 ruch w stron\u0119 <strong>60,60<\/strong>. Z kolei powr\u00f3t powy\u017cej <strong>60,80<\/strong> zacz\u0105\u0142by os\u0142abia\u0107 ten uk\u0142ad spadkowy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Podane poziomy cen i scenariusze rynkowe to ocena autora na moment publikacji. Nie stanowi\u0105 porady inwestycyjnej ani oficjalnej rekomendacji VT Markets. Przed podj\u0119ciem decyzji warto wykona\u0107 w\u0142asn\u0105 analiz\u0119 i uwa\u017cnie kontrolowa\u0107 ryzyko.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza dla srebra: czego mo\u017cna oczekiwa\u0107?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Srebro mo\u017ce pozosta\u0107 pod presj\u0105, je\u015bli ropa b\u0119dzie dalej dro\u017ce\u0107, podbijaj\u0105c obawy o inflacj\u0119. To mo\u017ce utrzymywa\u0107 wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA i sk\u0142ania\u0107 rynek do ponownego zwi\u0119kszania zak\u0142ad\u00f3w na dodatkowe podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p Fed w tym roku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Istotny jest te\u017c mocniejszy dolar. Je\u015bli protoko\u0142y Fed zasugeruj\u0105 utrzymanie restrykcyjnej polityki (czyli wysokich st\u00f3p przez d\u0142u\u017cszy czas) albo mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 kolejnej podwy\u017cki, rentowno\u015bci i dolar mog\u0105 zyska\u0107, co zwykle utrudnia odbicie cen srebra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z drugiej strony srebro mo\u017ce rosn\u0105\u0107, je\u015bli decydenci b\u0119d\u0105 ostro\u017cniejsi po s\u0142abszych danych z rynku pracy. Mniejsze oczekiwania na dalsze podwy\u017cki mog\u0105 \u015bci\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 w d\u00f3\u0142 rentowno\u015bci i dolara, poprawiaj\u0105c warunki dla metali szlachetnych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj XAGUSD z VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tag\/silver\/?utm_source=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Srebro<\/a> jako CFD (kontrakt na r\u00f3\u017cnic\u0119 kursow\u0105, czyli instrument pozwalaj\u0105cy zarabia\u0107 na zmianie ceny bez kupowania fizycznego metalu) daje ekspozycj\u0119 na ruchy cen srebra bez posiadania kruszcu. Na XAGUSD wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 m.in. oczekiwania co do st\u00f3p procentowych, trendy inflacyjne, popyt przemys\u0142owy, ruchy walut i wydarzenia geopolityczne. Zobacz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/what-is-silver-trading-how-to-trade-silver-complete-guide\/?utm_source=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">kompletny przewodnik o tym, czym jest handel srebrem i jak handlowa\u0107 srebrem w 2026 r.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dzi\u0119ki VT Markets inwestorzy mog\u0105 \u015bledzi\u0107 notowania srebra obok innych metali szlachetnych, rynku walutowego (forex), indeks\u00f3w gie\u0142dowych i surowc\u00f3w, korzystaj\u0105c z rozbudowanych narz\u0119dzi oraz platform transakcyjnych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego srebro dzi\u015b spada?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Srebro jest pod presj\u0105, bo ropa odbija, a rentowno\u015bci ameryka\u0144skich obligacji skarbowych pozostaj\u0105 wysokie. Te czynniki podtrzymuj\u0105 obawy o inflacj\u0119 i poziom st\u00f3p procentowych, a wykres pokazuje te\u017c s\u0142abn\u0105cy impet w kr\u00f3tkim terminie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak protoko\u0142y Fed mog\u0105 wp\u0142yn\u0105\u0107 na srebro?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bardziej \u201ejastrz\u0119bi\u201d przekaz (czyli sugeruj\u0105cy wy\u017csze stopy na d\u0142u\u017cej) mo\u017ce wspiera\u0107 rentowno\u015bci obligacji i dolara, a to zwykle ci\u0105\u017cy srebru. Ostro\u017cniejszy ton mo\u017ce obni\u017cy\u0107 oczekiwania na podwy\u017cki i wesprze\u0107 XAGUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego rentowno\u015bci obligacji wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na srebro?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Srebro nie daje odsetek ani dywidendy. Gdy rentowno\u015bci obligacji rosn\u0105, aktywa \u201eoprocentowane\u201d staj\u0105 si\u0119 relatywnie bardziej atrakcyjne, co mo\u017ce zwi\u0119ksza\u0107 presj\u0119 na metale szlachetne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Czy srebro mo\u017ce wr\u00f3ci\u0107 powy\u017cej 61 USD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tak, ale wed\u0142ug obecnego uk\u0142adu kupuj\u0105cy najpierw musz\u0105 odzyska\u0107 <strong>60,80<\/strong> i <strong>60,90<\/strong>. Trwa\u0142e wybicie powy\u017cej tych stref poprawi\u0142oby kr\u00f3tkoterminowy obraz i ponownie skierowa\u0142o uwag\u0119 na <strong>61,00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Czy powinienem handlowa\u0107 srebrem?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To zale\u017cy od Twojej tolerancji ryzyka, planu transakcyjnego i oceny rynku. Srebro silnie reaguje na zmiany st\u00f3p procentowych w USA, rentowno\u015bci obligacji, kurs dolara, oczekiwania inflacyjne oraz wydarzenia geopolityczne.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Srebro cofa si\u0119 do 60,70 USD i walczy o kluczowe wsparcie. Dro\u017csza ropa oraz rentowno\u015bci USA 5,3% podbijaj\u0105 presj\u0119. Rynek czeka na protoko\u0142y Fed; 60,80\u201361,00 to op\u00f3r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69253,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Srebro cofa si\u0119 do 60,70 USD i walczy o kluczowe wsparcie. Dro\u017csza ropa oraz rentowno\u015bci USA 5,3% podbijaj\u0105 presj\u0119. 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