{"id":69179,"date":"2026-10-06T02:49:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T02:49:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/euro-rebounds-despite-lingering-french-debt-risks\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T02:49:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T02:49:47","slug":"euro-rebounds-despite-lingering-french-debt-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/euro-rebounds-despite-lingering-french-debt-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro odbija mimo utrzymuj\u0105cych si\u0119 ryzyk zwi\u0105zanych z francuskim d\u0142ugiem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac4607e0a698.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Najwa\u017cniejsze informacje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EURUSD odbi\u0142 od <strong>1,12134<\/strong> i testuje op\u00f3r w rejonie <strong>1,12300<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>1,12250 i 1,12200<\/strong> to g\u0142\u00f3wne poziomy wsparcia (miejsca, gdzie popyt cz\u0119sto zatrzymuje spadki), je\u015bli odbicie zacznie s\u0142abn\u0105\u0107.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kupuj\u0105cy przej\u0119li kr\u00f3tkoterminowo inicjatyw\u0119 po powrocie kursu powy\u017cej <strong>1,12200<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kluczowe dla dolara pozostaj\u0105 rentowno\u015bci ameryka\u0144skich obligacji skarbowych (doch\u00f3d z obligacji USA) oraz oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce dzia\u0142a\u0144 Fed (Rezerwy Federalnej, banku centralnego USA).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Obawy o finanse publiczne Francji oraz ryzyka zwi\u0105zane z zad\u0142u\u017ceniem strefy euro nadal ci\u0105\u017c\u0105 perspektywom euro.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ruch na rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD umocni\u0142 si\u0119 w trakcie ostatniej sesji intraday (w ci\u0105gu dnia), rosn\u0105c z do\u0142ka <strong>1,12134<\/strong> do ok. <strong>1,12297<\/strong>. Po pierwszym skoku kurs wszed\u0142 w konsolidacj\u0119 (ruch boczny) w przedziale <strong>1,12250\u20131,12270<\/strong>, po czym ponownie ruszy\u0142 w g\u00f3r\u0119. Ostatni ruch zbli\u017cy\u0142 notowania do <strong>1,12300<\/strong> \u2014 para jest blisko dziennego maksimum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kolejny test to odpowied\u017a na pytanie, czy kupuj\u0105cy zdo\u0142aj\u0105 prze\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 kr\u00f3tkoterminowe przyspieszenie na wyra\u017ane wybicie powy\u017cej <strong>1,12300<\/strong>. Brak sukcesu w tym miejscu mo\u017ce oznacza\u0107 ryzyko korekty (kr\u00f3tkiego spadku), zw\u0142aszcza je\u015bli rentowno\u015bci w USA pozostan\u0105 wysokie albo nasil\u0105 si\u0119 obawy o kondycj\u0119 finans\u00f3w publicznych w Europie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego rynek to obserwuje<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kr\u00f3tkoterminowe odbicie pojawia si\u0119 w trudniejszym otoczeniu dla euro. Obawy o francuskie finanse publiczne pogarszaj\u0105 nastroje wok\u00f3\u0142 wsp\u00f3lnej waluty, a wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA zapewniaj\u0105 t\u0142o wspieraj\u0105ce dolara. To utrudnia trwalsze wzrosty EURUSD, nawet gdy s\u0142abn\u0105 oczekiwania na zaostrzenie polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej Fed (czyli na podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p procentowych lub utrzymanie ich na wysokim poziomie).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The euro sank to a 17-month low after government borrowing costs jumped, especially in France. Laura Cooper of Nuveen told Reuters that markets are reflecting worries that none of the candidates in France&#39;s upcoming election are willing to rein in spending <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bLpXSeB3DZ\">pic.twitter.com\/bLpXSeB3DZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2107080864425463998?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jednocze\u015bnie wykres sugeruje, \u017ce w bardzo kr\u00f3tkim terminie kupuj\u0105cy odzyskali cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 kontroli. Powr\u00f3t powy\u017cej <strong>1,12200<\/strong> i utrzymanie si\u0119 nad rosn\u0105c\u0105 9-okresow\u0105 \u015bredni\u0105 krocz\u0105c\u0105 (wska\u017anik u\u015bredniaj\u0105cy cen\u0119 z ostatnich 9 \u015bwiec\/okres\u00f3w, pokazuj\u0105cy kierunek kr\u00f3tkiego trendu) wskazuje, \u017ce presja sprzeda\u017cy chwilowo os\u0142ab\u0142a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe poziomy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">EURUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:EURUSD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Strefa<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie techniczne<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,123<\/td><td>Najbli\u017cszy op\u00f3r<\/td><td>Poziom psychologiczny (okr\u0105g\u0142a warto\u015b\u0107, na kt\u00f3r\u0105 rynek cz\u0119sto reaguje) tu\u017c nad bie\u017c\u0105c\u0105 cen\u0105 i dziennym maksimum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,12298<\/td><td>DZienne maksimum (intraday high)<\/td><td>Najwy\u017csza cena widoczna na wykresie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,1225<\/td><td>Kr\u00f3tkoterminowy punkt zwrotny<\/td><td>Strefa konsolidacji po wybiciu z ok. 04:00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,122<\/td><td>Pierwsze wsparcie<\/td><td>Poprzednia strefa wybicia i kr\u00f3tkoterminowy poziom psychologiczny<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,1215<\/td><td>Drugie wsparcie<\/td><td>Obszar wielokrotnie testowany przed wybiciem<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1,12134<\/td><td>DZienny do\u0142ek (intraday low)<\/td><td>Najni\u017csza cena w pokazanej sesji<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD podchodzi pod wa\u017cny kr\u00f3tkoterminowy op\u00f3r w rejonie <strong>1,12300<\/strong>, tu\u017c nad maksimum sesji <strong>1,12298<\/strong>. Trwa\u0142e wybicie powy\u017cej mog\u0142oby oznacza\u0107 kontynuacj\u0119 odbicia. Po stronie spadk\u00f3w pierwsza strefa do obserwacji to <strong>1,12250<\/strong>, czyli obszar ruchu bocznego po wcze\u015bniejszym wybiciu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ni\u017cej <strong>1,12200<\/strong> pozostaje wa\u017cnym wsparciem i wcze\u015bniejsz\u0105 stref\u0105 wybicia. Je\u015bli kurs spadnie poni\u017cej, uwag\u0119 mo\u017ce przyci\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 <strong>1,12150<\/strong>, a potem dzienny do\u0142ek <strong>1,12134<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze wzrostowe i spadkowe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac4607f6dabd.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sygna\u0142<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potwierdzenie \/ kolejny rejon<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wzrostowy<\/td><td>Wybicie i utrzymanie powy\u017cej 1,12300<\/td><td>Kurs utrzymuje si\u0119 nad rosn\u0105c\u0105 9-okresow\u0105 \u015bredni\u0105 krocz\u0105c\u0105, a wy\u017cszy wolumen (wi\u0119ksza aktywno\u015b\u0107\/obr\u00f3t) wspiera kontynuacj\u0119.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Korekta<\/td><td>Cofni\u0119cie w kierunku 1,12250<\/td><td>Kupuj\u0105cy broni\u0105 strefy konsolidacji, a kurs pozostaje nad rosn\u0105c\u0105 \u015bredni\u0105 krocz\u0105c\u0105, co utrzymuje pozytywny uk\u0142ad w ci\u0105gu dnia.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spadkowy<\/td><td>Spadek poni\u017cej 1,12200<\/td><td>Utrata strefy wybicia mo\u017ce otworzy\u0107 drog\u0119 do 1,12150, a nast\u0119pnie do\u0142ka sesji 1,12134.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aby rozwin\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 scenariusz wzrostowy, potrzebny jest potwierdzony ruch ponad <strong>1,12300<\/strong>. Wi\u0119ksz\u0105 wiarygodno\u015b\u0107 da\u0142by mu rosn\u0105cy wolumen, czyli wi\u0119ksza aktywno\u015b\u0107 rynku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariusz spadkowy pojawi si\u0119, je\u015bli kurs zejdzie poni\u017cej <strong>1,12200<\/strong>. Os\u0142abi to odbicie i mo\u017ce oznacza\u0107 powr\u00f3t przewagi sprzedaj\u0105cych, z potencjalnym ruchem w stron\u0119 <strong>1,12150<\/strong> i dziennego do\u0142ka <strong>1,12134<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza EURUSD: co mo\u017ce by\u0107 kolejnym impulsem?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD mo\u017ce kontynuowa\u0107 odbicie, je\u015bli spadn\u0105 rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA, dolar straci impet, a rynek b\u0119dzie coraz mniej wierzy\u0142 w zaostrzenie polityki Fed (czyli w podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p lub utrzymywanie ich wysoko). Taki scenariusz mog\u0105 wzmocni\u0107 s\u0142absze dane o inflacji w USA lub o rynku pracy. Pom\u00f3c mog\u0142yby te\u017c sygna\u0142y uspokojenia na europejskim rynku obligacji (mniejsze wahania i spadek kosztu finansowania pa\u0144stw).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z drugiej strony EURUSD mo\u017ce ponownie znale\u017a\u0107 si\u0119 pod presj\u0105, je\u015bli rentowno\u015bci w USA pozostan\u0105 wysokie, przedstawiciele Fed b\u0119d\u0105 studzi\u0107 oczekiwania na \u0142agodniejsz\u0105 polityk\u0119, albo dane z USA oka\u017c\u0105 si\u0119 mocniejsze od prognoz. Utrzymuj\u0105ce si\u0119 obawy o sytuacj\u0119 bud\u017cetow\u0105 Francji oraz szersze ryzyka zad\u0142u\u017cenia strefy euro tak\u017ce mog\u0105 ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 wsp\u00f3lnej walucie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj EURUSD z VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD to jedna z najaktywniej handlowanych par na rynku forex (rynku wymiany walut). Daje ekspozycj\u0119 na zmiany oczekiwa\u0144 dotycz\u0105cych polityki EBC (Europejskiego Banku Centralnego) i Fed, a tak\u017ce na inflacj\u0119, wzrost gospodarczy i globalny apetyt na ryzyko (sk\u0142onno\u015b\u0107 inwestor\u00f3w do kupowania bardziej ryzykownych aktyw\u00f3w).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets<\/a> inwestorzy mog\u0105 \u015bledzi\u0107 notowania EURUSD, analizowa\u0107 trendy w oparciu o analiz\u0119 techniczn\u0105 (analiz\u0119 wykres\u00f3w) i zarz\u0105dza\u0107 pozycjami na platformach <strong>MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5<\/strong> oraz w <strong>aplikacji VT Markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak wygl\u0105da dzi\u015b perspektywa dla EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EURUSD pokazuje kr\u00f3tkoterminowe odbicie po wyj\u015bciu z dziennego do\u0142ka. Impet wzrostowy poprawi\u0142 si\u0119, ale dalszy kierunek wci\u0105\u017c zale\u017cy od rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA, oczekiwa\u0144 wobec Fed i zaufania do gospodarki strefy euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego EURUSD ro\u015bnie?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ostatnie odbicie wynika ze wzrostu popytu na euro i chwilowego os\u0142abienia dolara. Mniejsze oczekiwania na zacie\u015bnianie polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej w USA sprzyjaj\u0105 EURUSD, cho\u0107 wysokie rentowno\u015bci obligacji mog\u0105 ogranicza\u0107 wzrosty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Czy EURUSD jest teraz na wzrosty, czy na spadki?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kr\u00f3tkoterminowo przewaga jest lekko po stronie kupuj\u0105cych, patrz\u0105c na ostatni ruch ceny. Szerzej rynek pozostaje wra\u017cliwy na dane i decyzje makroekonomiczne, zw\u0142aszcza zmian\u0119 oczekiwa\u0144 co do st\u00f3p procentowych w USA oraz obawy o finanse publiczne w Europie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jakie czynniki wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na euro wzgl\u0119dem dolara?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do kluczowych czynnik\u00f3w nale\u017c\u0105 oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce polityki EBC i Fed, rentowno\u015bci obligacji USA, inflacja w strefie euro, obawy o zad\u0142u\u017cenie Francji, dane makro oraz og\u00f3lny apetyt na ryzyko na rynkach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dlaczego obawy o d\u0142ug Francji s\u0105 wa\u017cne dla EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obawy o stan finans\u00f3w publicznych Francji mog\u0105 obni\u017ca\u0107 zaufanie do euro, szczeg\u00f3lnie gdy rosn\u0105 koszty obs\u0142ugi d\u0142ugu (rentowno\u015bci obligacji) lub inwestorzy ostro\u017cniej podchodz\u0105 do ryzyka zad\u0142u\u017cenia w strefie euro. To mo\u017ce zwi\u0119ksza\u0107 presj\u0119 spadkow\u0105 na EURUSD.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EURUSD odbija od 1,12134 i zn\u00f3w puka do 1,12300 \u2013 czy padnie psychologiczny op\u00f3r? Kluczowe wsparcia: 1,12250 i 1,12200. Kurs zale\u017cy od rentowno\u015bci USA, Fed i obaw o francuski d\u0142ug.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69178,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"EURUSD odbija od 1,12134 i zn\u00f3w puka do 1,12300 \u2013 czy padnie psychologiczny op\u00f3r? Kluczowe wsparcia: 1,12250 i 1,12200. 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