{"id":69158,"date":"2026-10-02T06:49:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T06:49:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/uncategorized\/us-futures-gain-as-sp500-holds-near-7680-ahead-of-jobs-data\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T06:49:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T06:49:45","slug":"us-futures-gain-as-sp500-holds-near-7680-ahead-of-jobs-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/us-futures-gain-as-sp500-holds-near-7680-ahead-of-jobs-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Kontrakty terminowe w USA rosn\u0105, a S&#038;P 500 utrzymuje si\u0119 w pobli\u017cu 7 680 pkt przed publikacj\u0105 danych z rynku pracy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abf2e5fc4a23.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowe informacje<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500 jest notowany w okolicy <strong>7 680,60<\/strong>, co na pokazanym wykresie oznacza wzrost o ok. <strong>0,07%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rynek oczekuje, \u017ce raport o zatrudnieniu poza rolnictwem w USA (NFP \u2013 miesi\u0119czne dane o liczbie nowych miejsc pracy w sektorach innych ni\u017c rolnictwo) poka\u017ce ok. <strong>90 tys. nowych miejsc pracy we wrze\u015bniu<\/strong> wobec 162 tys. w sierpniu. Stopa bezrobocia ma pozosta\u0107 w okolicy 4,1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>G\u0142\u00f3wne ryzyka dla akcji to rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych USA (czyli procent, jaki inwestorzy dostaj\u0105, kupuj\u0105c obligacje rz\u0105du USA) oraz ceny ropy. Rentowno\u015b\u0107 10-letnich obligacji USA na chwil\u0119 wzros\u0142a w czwartek do ok. <strong>5,34%<\/strong>, najwy\u017cej od 2002 r.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dalszy kierunek SP500 mo\u017ce zale\u017ce\u0107 od tego, czy dane z rynku pracy podbij\u0105, czy os\u0142abi\u0105 oczekiwania na kolejne podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p Fed (ameryka\u0144skiego banku centralnego).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Co si\u0119 dzia\u0142o na rynku<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SP500 utrzymuje si\u0119 w okolicy <strong>7 680,60<\/strong> po nerwowej, kr\u00f3tkoterminowej sesji. Indeks by\u0142 notowany blisko <strong>7 685\u20137 686<\/strong>, po czym stopniowo zni\u017ckowa\u0142. Poda\u017c (presja sprzedaj\u0105cych) nasili\u0142a si\u0119 p\u00f3\u017aniej i sprowadzi\u0142a kurs w rejon <strong>7 677\u20137 678<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W okolicach tych minim\u00f3w pojawili si\u0119 kupuj\u0105cy. Indeks odbi\u0142 w stron\u0119 <strong>7 681<\/strong>, a 9-okresowa \u015brednia krocz\u0105ca (\u015brednia z ostatnich 9 notowa\u0144, kt\u00f3ra wyg\u0142adza wahania cen) sp\u0142aszczy\u0142a si\u0119 i zacz\u0119\u0142a rosn\u0105\u0107. Obecny ruch to raczej <strong>kr\u00f3tkoterminowe odbicie w ramach szerszej korekty w trakcie dnia<\/strong>, a nie potwierdzone wybicie w g\u00f3r\u0119.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Na co patrz\u0105 inwestorzy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pi\u0105tkowe dane NFP mog\u0105 wp\u0142yn\u0105\u0107 na kontrakty terminowe w USA (futures \u2013 instrumenty, kt\u00f3re odzwierciedlaj\u0105 oczekiwania rynku przed otwarciem gie\u0142dy) oraz na SP500. Raport za wrzesie\u0144 zostanie opublikowany <strong>2 pa\u017adziernika o 8:30 czasu ET<\/strong> (czas wschodniego wybrze\u017ca USA). Rynek wycenia ok. <strong>89 tys. nowych miejsc pracy<\/strong> wobec 162 tys. w sierpniu, a bezrobocie ma pozosta\u0107 na poziomie 4,1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Friday\u2019s US jobs report is the only major labor read before the October FOMC meeting. Forecast: 89K vs 162K prior.<br><br>The previous NFP release beat expectations, eased labor concerns, repriced rate hike odds, and pushed USD higher. <br><br>Another surprise could move markets again. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wXmbLDnlkW\">pic.twitter.com\/wXmbLDnlkW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Forex Factory (@ForexFactory) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ForexFactory\/status\/2105675132832305386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na dane z rynku pracy reaguj\u0105 te\u017c oczekiwania dotycz\u0105ce st\u00f3p Fed. Silny rynek pracy daje bankowi centralnemu wi\u0119ksz\u0105 przestrze\u0144 do podnoszenia st\u00f3p, szczeg\u00f3lnie gdy inflacja pozostaje powy\u017cej celu 2% rocznie. Dodatkowo wzrost rentowno\u015bci ameryka\u0144skich obligacji skarbowych trzyma inwestor\u00f3w w napi\u0119ciu \u2013 rentowno\u015bci przekroczy\u0142y 5%, co jest najwy\u017cszym poziomem od 2002 r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than two decades on Thursday as a global bond sell-off deepened.<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0xV9b5qXPv\">https:\/\/t.co\/0xV9b5qXPv<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4DYr6NwTuQ\">pic.twitter.com\/4DYr6NwTuQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2105637168467300611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kolejnym \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142em niepewno\u015bci jest ropa. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ceny wzros\u0142y o 4%<\/a> po doniesieniach, \u017ce USA wysy\u0142aj\u0105 dodatkowe wojska na Bliski Wsch\u00f3d. To podbija obawy o inflacj\u0119, bo koszty energii pozostaj\u0105 wysokie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The U.S. military is planning for a possible surge of thousands of naval forces to the Middle East in coming weeks, as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, U.S. officials said. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/O9DcmJwDZP\">https:\/\/t.co\/O9DcmJwDZP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/washingtonpost\/status\/2105810030721138824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kluczowy poziom dla handlu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-SP500\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">SP500 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:SP500\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Poziom<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Znaczenie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 686<\/td><td>G\u0142\u00f3wna kr\u00f3tkoterminowa bariera (op\u00f3r) i okolice szczytu sesji<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 684<\/td><td>Dodatkowy op\u00f3r<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 682<\/td><td>Pierwszy op\u00f3r do obserwacji<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 680<\/td><td>Najbli\u017csza strefa r\u00f3wnowagi (pivot \u2013 poziom, wok\u00f3\u0142 kt\u00f3rego kurs cz\u0119sto si\u0119 waha)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 678<\/td><td>Pierwsze wsparcie<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7 676\u20137 677<\/td><td>Kluczowa strefa wsparcia w trakcie dnia<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Poziom <strong>7 680<\/strong> jest teraz szczeg\u00f3lnie wa\u017cny. Kurs wielokrotnie porusza\u0142 si\u0119 w tej okolicy, dlatego to praktyczna kr\u00f3tkoterminowa granica mi\u0119dzy odbiciem a powrotem s\u0142abo\u015bci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenariusze wzrostowy i spadkowy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abf2e612af57.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenariusz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sygna\u0142<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potencjalne cele<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Co to mo\u017ce oznacza\u0107<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wzrostowy<\/td><td>Utrzymanie powy\u017cej 7 682<\/td><td>7 684, potem 7 686<\/td><td>Kupuj\u0105cy wyd\u0142u\u017caj\u0105 odbicie i testuj\u0105 wcze\u015bniejsze maksima sesji<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spadkowy<\/td><td>Spadek poni\u017cej 7 678<\/td><td>7 676\u20137 677<\/td><td>Odbicie traci impet, a sprzedaj\u0105cy wracaj\u0105<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zastrze\u017cenie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Podane poziomy cenowe i scenariusze rynkowe to ocena autora na moment publikacji. Nie stanowi\u0105 porady inwestycyjnej ani oficjalnej rekomendacji VT Markets. Przed decyzj\u0105 warto wykona\u0107 w\u0142asn\u0105 analiz\u0119 i kontrolowa\u0107 ryzyko.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prognoza dla SP500<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nadchodz\u0105cy raport NFP mo\u017ce poruszy\u0107 kontrakty terminowe w USA i SP500, bo wp\u0142ywa na oczekiwania wobec polityki Fed oraz rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych. Lepsze od prognoz dane o zatrudnieniu mog\u0105 wzmocni\u0107 przekonanie, \u017ce gospodarka USA jest odporna, zwi\u0119kszy\u0107 szanse na podwy\u017ck\u0119 st\u00f3p i podbi\u0107 rentowno\u015bci. To zwykle szkodzi wycenom akcji i mo\u017ce ci\u0105\u017cy\u0107 SP500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Umiarkowanie s\u0142abszy raport mo\u017ce sprzyja\u0107 akcjom, je\u015bli obni\u017cy presj\u0119 na podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p, a jednocze\u015bnie nie wywo\u0142a obaw o wzrost gospodarczy. Bardzo s\u0142aby odczyt mo\u017ce dzia\u0142a\u0107 dwojako: spadek rentowno\u015bci mo\u017ce na pocz\u0105tku pom\u00f3c rynkowi akcji, ale sygna\u0142y pogorszenia na rynku pracy zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 ryzyko recesji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Handluj SP500 z VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wydarzenia makroekonomiczne mocno wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na kontrakty terminowe w USA, w tym na S&amp;P 500. Warto \u015bledzi\u0107 kluczowe publikacje, bo oczekiwania rynku potrafi\u0105 szybko si\u0119 zmienia\u0107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W VT Markets mo\u017cna handlowa\u0107 SP500 i innymi indeksami przez kontrakty CFD (kontrakt na r\u00f3\u017cnic\u0119 kursow\u0105 \u2013 instrument, kt\u00f3ry pozwala spekulowa\u0107 na zmianie ceny bez kupowania aktywa bazowego) oraz rynkiem walutowym (forex), z\u0142otem, rop\u0105, CFD na akcje, CFD na ETF-y (fundusze notowane na gie\u0142dzie) i innymi rynkami w jednej platformie. U\u0142atwia to por\u00f3wnywanie ruch\u00f3w na akcjach technologicznych, surowcach, walutach i innych klasach aktyw\u00f3w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ile wynosi teraz SP500?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na pokazanym wykresie SP500 jest w okolicy <strong>7 680,60<\/strong>, czyli ok. 0,07% wy\u017cej w momencie wykonania zrzutu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jakie s\u0105 kluczowe poziomy SP500?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Najbli\u017cszy op\u00f3r wypada przy <strong>7 682<\/strong>, nast\u0119pnie 7 684 i 7 686. Pierwsze wsparcie to <strong>7 678<\/strong>, a mocniejsze wsparcie w trakcie dnia to 7 676\u20137 677.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak NFP mo\u017ce wp\u0142yn\u0105\u0107 na SP500?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mocniejsze dane o zatrudnieniu mog\u0105 zwi\u0119kszy\u0107 oczekiwania na bardziej restrykcyjn\u0105 polityk\u0119 Fed (czyli wy\u017csze stopy) i podbi\u0107 rentowno\u015bci obligacji, co bywa niekorzystne dla akcji. S\u0142abszy raport mo\u017ce zmniejszy\u0107 presj\u0119 na stopy, cho\u0107 wyj\u0105tkowo s\u0142aby wynik mo\u017ce wzbudzi\u0107 obawy o wzrost gospodarczy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kiedy publikacja raportu NFP za wrzesie\u0144 w USA?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ameryka\u0144ski urz\u0105d statystyczny BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics \u2013 federalna instytucja publikuj\u0105ca m.in. dane o zatrudnieniu) zaplanowa\u0142 publikacj\u0119 raportu o sytuacji na rynku pracy za wrzesie\u0144 2026 na <strong>pi\u0105tek, 2 pa\u017adziernika 2026 r., godz. 8:30 czasu ET<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Zacznij handlowa\u0107 teraz \u2014 kliknij <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/trade-now\/\">tutaj<\/a>, aby za\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 swoje prawdziwe konto VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SP500 kr\u0105\u017cy przy 7 680 pkt, ale prawdziwy test dopiero przed nami: pi\u0105tkowy NFP mo\u017ce przestawi\u0107 oczekiwania wobec Fed. Wysokie rentowno\u015bci i dro\u017cej\u0105ca ropa zwi\u0119kszaj\u0105 nerwowo\u015b\u0107.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69157,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SP500 kr\u0105\u017cy przy 7 680 pkt, ale prawdziwy test dopiero przed nami: pi\u0105tkowy NFP mo\u017ce przestawi\u0107 oczekiwania wobec Fed. 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