{"id":23731,"date":"2025-08-28T10:30:51","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T10:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23731"},"modified":"2025-08-28T10:30:51","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T10:30:51","slug":"euro-steadies-amid-french-political-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/euro-steadies-amid-french-political-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro steadies amid French political uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23733\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/11.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro faces a delicate balance as French political uncertainty meets broad dollar strength. Investors are cautious, watching confidence votes and policy developments alongside key US economic data. Market direction for EUR\/USD will depend on how these risks and signals unfold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Dollar strength keeps euro under pressure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro remained under selling pressure on Thursday as concerns over French political uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prime Minister Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou faces the risk of losing his position next month after unexpectedly calling a confidence vote tied to his deficit-reduction agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The risk of another failed government in France is already priced in by markets and won\u2019t be enough to derail the European stock rally, top Wall Street strategists say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Kjavwet7vU\">https:\/\/t.co\/Kjavwet7vU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1960968132576563685?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This development has widened the yield spread between French and German government bonds, amplifying the political risk premium attached to the single currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro briefly dipped to 1.1573 \u2013 its weakest level in three weeks \u2013 before recovering to trade around 1.1642.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, broader dollar positioning continues to be the dominant driver, with markets closely tracking upcoming US economic data and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/dollar-steadies-september-fed-cut-bets-ramp-up-2025-08-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"Federal Reserve\u2019s policy meeting\">Federal Reserve\u2019s policy meeting<\/a> scheduled for next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since touching a February low at 1.0210, EUR\/USD has staged a steady rally, peaking near 1.1830 in July before entering a consolidation phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pair is currently trading around 1.1641, holding above the key 1.1500 support zone. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain broadly supportive, though they have flattened, signalling a slowdown in momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23732\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-300x132.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-768x338.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-500x220.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-400x176.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-350x154.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/08\/image-20-1024x450-1-200x88.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture: EUR\/USD trades near 1.16416, easing from a recent 1.18297 peak, with support around 1.15000 and a neutral MACD, as shown on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD is hovering near the zero line, reflecting a lack of decisive trend strength. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1700\u20131.1830, which must be broken for the broader uptrend to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, a drop below 1.1500 would weaken the structure and potentially expose 1.1350 as the next major support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, EUR\/USD looks range-bound, with traders awaiting direction from US data releases and future European Central Bank (ECB) signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Cautious forecast<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If political instability in France escalates while the dollar stays resilient, EUR\/USD could retest the 1.1600 handle or even slide toward 1.1500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained move below this level may open the door toward 1.1350, signalling a deeper correction in the pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, a stabilisation in French bond markets alongside weaker US economic indicators could ease downside pressure on the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a scenario would allow EUR\/USD to rebound, first testing 1.1700 before attempting a push toward the 1.1750 resistance zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should also keep an eye on upcoming ECB communications, as any hawkish policy signals could provide additional support for the single currency in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The euro faces a delicate balance as French political uncertainty meets broad dollar strength. Investors are cautious, watching confidence votes and policy developments alongside key US economic data. Market direction for EUR\/USD will depend on how these risks and signals unfold. Dollar strength keeps euro under pressure The euro remained under selling pressure on Thursday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/euro-steadies-amid-french-political-uncertainty\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23733,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}