{"id":23283,"date":"2025-07-03T08:54:19","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T08:54:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23283"},"modified":"2025-07-03T08:54:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T08:54:19","slug":"australian-dollar-pulls-back-from-8-month-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/australian-dollar-pulls-back-from-8-month-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian dollar pulls back from 8-month high"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/7.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar is under pressure as markets turn cautious ahead of key US jobs data. Soft domestic figures and shifting rate expectations on both sides are keeping AUD\/USD in focus, with upcoming releases likely to determine its next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Aussie dips ahead of US jobs data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar retreated to 0.6571 on Thursday, easing from an eight-month peak of 0.6590, as investor sentiment shifted to risk-off mode ahead of Friday\u2019s highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US private payrolls declined in June \u2014 the first drop in over two years \u2014 due to economic uncertainty slowing down hiring, according to the ADP National Employment Report <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OKj0wJMell\">https:\/\/t.co\/OKj0wJMell<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kdxr7NY8cG\">pic.twitter.com\/kdxr7NY8cG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1940553574011863477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move followed a weaker-than-expected US ADP private employment reading, which signalled softening conditions in the US labour market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should Friday\u2019s official jobs report also disappoint, it could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July\u2014potentially weighing on the US dollar and offering support to the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a strong payrolls print may lift the greenback further and put renewed pressure on AUD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Australian data reinforces RBA rate cut outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s trade surplus shrank in May to its lowest level in nearly five years, driven by falling commodity exports and a rise in capital goods imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This disappointing release came on the heels of Wednesday\u2019s weak retail sales figures, highlighting subdued household spending and declining domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Together, these consecutive data misses have strengthened the market\u2019s expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-06-29\/rba-should-abandon-new-2-5-inflation-goal-tcorp-s-redican-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"meeting on 8 July\">meeting on 8 July<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ANZ has joined other leading banks in forecasting a 25-basis-point cut, with a further reduction likely in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures markets now price in close to four rate cuts by early 2026, projecting the cash rate could fall to 2.85% from the current 3.85%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With domestic fundamentals turning more dovish and monetary easing in focus, upside momentum in AUD\/USD appears limited\u2014unless US data significantly underperforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key downside levels for bears to watch lie in the 0.6540\u20130.6500 range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: Bearish momentum returns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD is displaying a choppy short-term pattern, with intraday support emerging around 0.6543 and resistance near 0.6588.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After bouncing from the session low, the pair briefly climbed above the 30-period moving average and touched a high of 0.65879.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, price action has since weakened, with the pair falling below short-term moving averages (5 and 10 periods) and the MACD crossing back into bearish territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"442\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-1024x442.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-1024x442.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-300x129.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-768x331.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-500x216.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-400x173.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-350x151.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2-200x86.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/07\/image-2.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture: Aussie stalls below 0.6590 as bulls fade, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators point to fading bullish strength, as the MACD histogram turns negative again\u2014suggesting the pair could drift back toward its recent consolidation range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break below key support at 0.6543 may open the door to further losses toward 0.6520.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim 0.6588 to challenge the psychological resistance at 0.6600.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar is under pressure as markets turn cautious ahead of key US jobs data. Soft domestic figures and shifting rate expectations on both sides are keeping AUD\/USD in focus, with upcoming releases likely to determine its next move. Aussie dips ahead of US jobs data The Australian dollar retreated to 0.6571 on Thursday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/australian-dollar-pulls-back-from-8-month-high\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23286,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23283\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}