{"id":23231,"date":"2025-06-25T08:34:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T08:34:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23231"},"modified":"2025-06-25T08:34:30","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T08:34:30","slug":"us-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-embrace-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/us-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-embrace-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"US dollar under pressure as markets embrace risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/Copy-of-1-4.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are reacting to a mix of calming geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic signals from the US, leading to renewed pressure on the dollar. As risk appetite improves and doubts grow around the Fed\u2019s next move, investors are rebalancing positions and watching upcoming data for clearer direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Ceasefire lifts risk appetite<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar continued to lose ground on Wednesday, weighed down by improved market sentiment following a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Selling the dollar to invest in emerging-market currencies looks increasingly appealing, as greenback volatility drops relative to other traditional funders <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JvWfJ2vbNA\">https:\/\/t.co\/JvWfJ2vbNA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1937687780018012300?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fragile truce, brokered earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, temporarily paused nearly 12 days of air strikes, prompting investors to shift towards riskier assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This risk-on mood has reduced demand for safe havens like the dollar, even as uncertainty lingers over the long-term stability of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Data disappoints, rate bets grow<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the pause in geopolitical tensions, the US economic outlook remains murky. During his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, with no strong indication that rate cuts are imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed won&#39;t cut rates until it gets a better handle on inflation, adding that he and many at the Fed expect inflation to start rising soon, and that the central bank was in no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DfkffWQfy9\">https:\/\/t.co\/DfkffWQfy9<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ix1WFyyVeW\">pic.twitter.com\/ix1WFyyVeW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1937665795263238334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, markets are moving ahead of the Fed. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"CME FedWatch Tool\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a> now shows an 18% chance of a rate cut in July, with nearly 60 basis points of easing expected by December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This shift is driven in part by declining consumer confidence\u2014June\u2019s data revealed an unexpected dip as more Americans expressed concern about job availability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bond markets are reacting accordingly: the two-year Treasury yield fell to a 1.5-month low of 3.7870%, while the 10-year yield hovered around 4.3043%, reflecting growing expectations of policy easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: Dollar extends bearish trend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical perspective, the US dollar remains on the back foot, closing at 97.43\u2014well below the previous high of 98.99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charts continue to signal a strong downward trend, with the price unable to reclaim the 97.70 resistance zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"445\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-1024x445.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-1024x445.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-300x130.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-768x334.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-500x217.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-400x174.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28-200x87.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/06\/image-28.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Picture:<\/strong> Bearish momentum dominates as the dollar hovers near 97.30 lows, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator remains firmly in negative territory, and downward-sloping moving averages point to persistent bearish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The intraday low of 97.28 now marks immediate support. However, selling pressure remains pronounced, and unless key economic indicators begin to recover, the dollar could face further declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If upcoming US data continues to disappoint and inflation moderates\u2014even with tariff-related pressures\u2014the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts as early as Q3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a move would likely increase downward pressure on the greenback, especially against the euro and higher-risk currencies like the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are reacting to a mix of calming geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic signals from the US, leading to renewed pressure on the dollar. As risk appetite improves and doubts grow around the Fed\u2019s next move, investors are rebalancing positions and watching upcoming data for clearer direction. Ceasefire lifts risk appetite The US dollar continued <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/us-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-embrace-risk\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}