{"id":22989,"date":"2025-05-16T18:48:44","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T18:48:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17843"},"modified":"2025-05-16T18:48:44","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T18:48:44","slug":"week-ahead-policy-shifts-by-the-fed-geopolitical-tensions-move-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-policy-shifts-by-the-fed-geopolitical-tensions-move-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Week ahead: Fed policy shifts &amp; geopolitics move the markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/Turkey.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17846\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Big moves are in play this week. With the Fed is shaking up its policy framework, and zero interest rates no longer being the default, markets are bracing for the potential ripple effects on markets, borrowing costs, and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have been pushed to May 16, but the bigger question is: Who\u2019s showing up? Zelensky, Trump and the Kremlin, are all showing contrasting stands against one another, setting the stage for another diplomatic standoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Middle East however, Hamas signals a major shift, expressing willingness to relinquish control of Gaza if a permanent ceasefire can be secured. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the world watches, markets react, and power players move, one thing is certain: This week will be one to watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Key Economic Indicators<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Monetary Policy &amp; Fed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, with zero interest rates no longer being a baseline assumption. Regulators also plan to ease leverage rules for large banks in the coming months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Language on underemployment and average inflation to be reconsidered.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>April core PCE inflation expected to fall to 2.2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Trade &amp; Tariffs<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Japan seeks third round of U.S.-Japan trade talks next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. considering modifications to the current U.S.-Japan trade agreement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>EU to accelerate trade talks with the U.S.; aims for deeper tariff cuts than what the U.K. has received.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Russia-Ukraine Talks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Peace talks postponed to May 16.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Zelensky: a technical ceasefire deal could make meeting Putin unnecessary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump: may attend talks in Turkey; says no progress until he and Putin meet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kremlin: Putin has no plans to attend or meet Trump.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Middle East<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hamas official: Willing to give up Gaza control if a permanent ceasefire is achieved.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Energy Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEA has revised its 2025 forecasts as below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oil demand growth up to 740,000 barrels\/day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Supply growth up to 1.6 million barrels\/day.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Crypto<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coinbase reported a data breach involving customer information, refusing a $20 million ransom from hackers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SEC is investigating an alleged misreporting of user numbers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/2_Picture1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17848\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market movers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>XAUUSD<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/XAUUSD_Daily_Signal-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17849\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The primary trend remains firmly bullish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price action suggests a potential bottom is forming.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A short-term pullback appears likely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Preferred strategy is to buy on dips.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key bespoke support is identified at 3153.0.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade Opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 3309 \/ Target 2: 3335<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>EURUSD<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/EURUSD_Daily_Signal-1024x416.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17850\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD posted modest daily gains, though price action remained contained within the range from the prior trading day. This is an indecisive Inside Day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buying interest emerged during the Asian session.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On an intraday basis, price is trading between bespoke support at 1.1040 and resistance at 1.1237.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market conditions are expected to stay mixed and volatile.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Preferred strategy is to sell into rallies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade Opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 1.104 \/ Target 2: 1.101<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>USDJPY<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/USDJPY_Daily_Signal-1024x416.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17851\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Prices are pushing higher, breaking out from a bullish flag\/pennant pattern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Three consecutive days of negative daily performance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selling pressure emerged during the Asian session.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Intraday, price is trading between bespoke support at 145.27 and resistance at 147.23.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The short-term structure reflects a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A break below 145.27 is required to confirm continued bearish momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade Opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 147.23 \/ Target 2: 149<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>News headlines<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Currencies<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar weakened against major peers following softer-than-expected producer price inflation data, with the Dollar Index slipping to 100.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> edged up by 10 pips to 1.1184.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD\/JPY<\/strong> dropped sharply by 115 pips to 145.60, marking its third consecutive daily decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>GBP\/USD<\/strong> gained 44 pips, settling at 1.3303, after the U.K. reported stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter compared to the forecast of 0.6%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong> declined 21 pips to 0.6405.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD\/CHF<\/strong> lost 67 pips to 0.8351<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD\/CAD<\/strong> dipped 24 pips to 1.3958.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>What happened in the U.S. market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>stock market<\/strong> closed higher on Thursday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dow Jones<\/strong> gained 271 pts (+0.65%) to 42,322<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong> rose 24 pts (+0.41%) to 5,916<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nasdaq 100<\/strong> added 16 pts (+0.08%) to 21,335 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to observe that that both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have been extending their winning streak to four sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the <strong>10-year Treasury yield<\/strong> fell 8.9 bps to <strong>4.439%<\/strong>, likely influenced by key economic data as below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>PPI (April):<\/strong> +2.4% YoY (<em>vs<\/em> 2.6% expected, 3.4% prior)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Retail Sales:<\/strong> +0.1% MoM (<em>vs<\/em> -0.1% expected, +1.7% prior)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>What happened in the European market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stock market saw some overall gains, with the German index DAX up 0.72%, the French index CAC up 0.21% and the British index FTSE up 0.57%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><strong>What happened to global commodities<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With President Trump signaled a potential nuclear deal with Iran, the market speculated that there may be eased sanctions and increased oil supply entering the picture. As such:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Gold<\/strong> surged $62 (+1.97%) to $3,240\/oz<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> fell $1.53 (-2.42%) to $61.62\/bbl, extending its decline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>&nbsp;to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Big moves are in play this week. With the Fed is shaking up its policy framework, and zero interest rates no longer being the default, markets are bracing for the potential ripple effects on markets, borrowing costs, and economic growth. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have been pushed to May 16, but the bigger question <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-policy-shifts-by-the-fed-geopolitical-tensions-move-markets\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":98,"featured_media":22834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/98"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22989\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}