{"id":17839,"date":"2025-05-15T09:12:57","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T09:12:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17839"},"modified":"2025-05-15T09:12:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T09:12:57","slug":"forex-market-analysis-15-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-15-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex market analysis: 15 May 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/52-5-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17841\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices are under pressure again as traders react to shifting global dynamics, from renewed nuclear talks with Iran to growing concerns about the health of major economies. After a brief period of optimism, market sentiment has turned cautious, with geopolitical risks and central bank signals now shaping the outlook. This shift has prompted a closer look at both the technical and fundamental landscape driving oil\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Oil retreats amid nuclear deal speculation and macro headwinds<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices tumbled on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shedding 2.13% to settle at USD 61.06 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The downturn was largely driven by renewed speculation over a potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, which could pave the way for sanctions on Iranian oil exports to be eased\u2014raising concerns over an increase in global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Washington\u2019s sanctioning of a Singapore-based oil-services company has sent ripples through the local trading community, while renewing a focus on the clandestine supply chain that moves Iranian oil to China. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YaS5YYhXFB\">https:\/\/t.co\/YaS5YYhXFB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1922860204095414707?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 15, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This latest drop follows a brief rally sparked by a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, which had initially lifted hopes for a demand recovery. However, that optimism has quickly faded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to IG\u2019s Tony Sycamore, the pullback feels like a \u201changover after a massive party,\u201d with traders becoming more cautious as broader economic risks come back into focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sentiment was further hit by President Donald Trump&#8217;s comments on the US federal budget deficit and growing concerns about the sustainability of the country\u2019s economic expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a one-month high, heightening investor unease about rising borrowing costs and ballooning debt levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Equity markets also turned lower, amplifying the risk-off mood. Japan\u2019s Nikkei slipped by 0.85%, and China\u2019s CSI300 fell 0.63%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European indices followed suit, while US futures pointed to a weaker open ahead of key retail sales figures and Walmart earnings\u2014both considered indicators of consumer confidence and economic momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: Oil under pressure, bearish trend intact<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude continues to trade lower, with CL-OIL-ECN falling from USD 63.88 to a session low of USD 60.95 over the past two days\u2014marking a decline of more than 4.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technical indicators remain bearish, with prices now firmly below the 5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages, signalling continued downward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Selling intensified after breaking below the key support level near USD 62.00, with only modest buying interest seen during minor rebound attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/image-14-1024x444-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17840\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Oil tumbles to USD 60.95 as bearish momentum deepens, with short-term pressure persisting below USD 62 resistance, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, although histogram bars are showing signs of stabilisation, suggesting the downward momentum may be easing slightly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, without a decisive bullish crossover or a reclaim of the USD 61.50\u201362.00 zone, further losses remain likely. The path of least resistance still points lower in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Short-term outlook: Volatility expected as traders eye geopolitical developments<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil is expected to remain volatile as markets digest ongoing geopolitical news and commentary from central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A confirmed breakthrough in US\u2013Iran negotiations could put further pressure on prices, potentially testing the USD 60.00 support zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, if talks stall or the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, a rebound toward the USD 62.50\u201363.00 range is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s US retail sales data and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the short-term trajectory of oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices are under pressure again as traders react to shifting global dynamics, from renewed nuclear talks with Iran to growing concerns about the health of major economies. After a brief period of optimism, market sentiment has turned cautious, with geopolitical risks and central bank signals now shaping the outlook. This shift has prompted a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-15-may-2025\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":22913,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17839\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}