{"id":14041,"date":"2024-08-12T12:05:23","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T12:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=14041"},"modified":"2024-08-12T12:05:23","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T12:05:23","slug":"crude-oil-gains-as-mideast-tensions-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/week_ahead\/crude-oil-gains-as-mideast-tensions-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Gains as Mideast Tensions Increase"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This week\u2019s market preview highlights the key events and data releases to watch in the second week of August 2024. U.S. stocks slid last week, with small-cap shares and tech leading the way. Growth fears exacerbated by soft U.S. jobs data drove a broad global risk-off move.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. two-year Treasury yields fell to 15-month lows near 3.90% as markets priced in the potential for a 50-basis point rate cut in September and multiple cuts through 2025.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>K<\/strong>EY ECONOMIC INDICATORS<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RBNZ interest rate decision<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"1\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>RBNZ rates decision is not clear cut.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets marginally favour it to reduce rates for the first time since the pandemic, putting the probability of a 25 basis point reduction to the cash rate to 5.25% at just over 60%.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Crude oil inventories<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"2\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, drop by 3.7 million barrels; Analysts predicted a fall of 500,000 barrels.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global oil demand, meanwhile, is anticipated to reach 102.91 million bpd in 2024, while demand is expected to be around 104.68 million bpd in 2025.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Initial jobless claims<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"3\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The largest drop in about 11 months.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodity prices are projected to experience a slight downturn in 2024 and 2025 but are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technical indication shows us a potential incline on the commodities mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/image-3-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14042\" style=\"width:625px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>XAU\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>S1-S3<\/strong> \u2013 Means potential Support points. If the market declines further, these are the potential levels it can reach.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>R1-R3<\/strong> \u2013 Means potential Resistance points. If the market starts to increase again, these are the potential levels it can reach.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2024-08-12-at-9.26.14-pm-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14044\" style=\"width:656px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) is taking place on Friday, August 16th at 07:00 GMT +1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2024-08-12-at-9.31.47-pm-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14045\" style=\"width:663px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What is the forecast for United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM)?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The consensus for the next United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) is 0.8, and the last deviation was -0.59735.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Pound Sterling moves higher against the US Dollar on improved market sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BoE\u2019s ( Bank of England) Mann warns about upside risks to price pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in September.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Crude oil inventories expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Inventory Report will be released this Wednesday, 14 August 2024 at 15:30 GMT+1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Events since the last release of the Inventory Report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>U.S. crude oil posts more than 4% weekly gain as recession fears ease, Mideast tensions loom.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The stock market rebound after Monday\u2019s sell-off combined with Middle East military tensions to lift oil prices this week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Middle East Conflict to Remain a Critical Driver as it Continues to Underpin Oil Prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2024-08-12-at-9.40.56-pm-1024x583.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14046\" style=\"width:682px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Previous Report Figures and Forecast Figures for the latest release <strong>-3,728M<\/strong> (Barrels of Oil).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast Figures for 14 August 2024 &#8211; TBA (To be Announced) (Barrels of Oil).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>One-year commodity assets performance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The year-to-date performance on commodity assets with the potential range can be achieved until the end of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2026\/04\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14047\" style=\"width:527px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">MARKET NEWS<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stocks close higher, clawing back much of the week\u2019s losses in a major recovery from Monday\u2019s sell-off<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Nasdaq Composite added 0.51% to close at 16,745.30.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 51 points, or 0.13%, to end at 39,497.54.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were down on the week by 0.6% and 0.18%, respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil extends gains for fifth session on Mideast tensions, US data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent crude futures were up to $80.39 a barrel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 88 cents, or 1.2%, to $77.72.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent gained 3.7% last week, while WTI rose by 4.5%, buoyed by economic data and increased hopes of a US interest rate cut.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dollar edges higher ahead of key CPI release<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.017<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>July CPI data is expected to show that inflation continued to edge closer to the Fed\u2019s 2% annual target, with forecasts tipping annual core inflation to fall a tick to 3.2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Europe, EUR\/USD edged higher to 1.0920, not far from last week\u2019s 1.1009 peak, the pair&#8217;s highest level since January.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GBP\/USD traded flat at 1.2759 at the start of a busy U.K. economic data calendar this week as investors look for clues as to whether the Bank of England will continue its rate-cutting cycle next month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week\u2019s market preview highlights the key events and data releases to watch in the second week of August 2024. U.S. stocks slid last week, with small-cap shares and tech leading the way. Growth fears exacerbated by soft U.S. jobs data drove a broad global risk-off move.&nbsp;&nbsp; U.S. two-year Treasury yields fell to 15-month lows <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/week_ahead\/crude-oil-gains-as-mideast-tensions-increase\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14041\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/pl-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}